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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 354 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 354 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis.
an elevated onshore flow is expected to continue over the coastal waters west of marsh island into tonight as a tighter gradient between high pressure centered over the southeastern states and a weak trof to our west lingers. Winds will relax later tonight and Thursday with the approach of a cold front...however, expect a brief round of moderate to strong offshore flow once the front pushes through the region late Friday into Saturday. Winds will once again relax late in the weekend as high pressure builds over the area.

FXUS64 KLIX 050128 AAB AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 828 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

NEW UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 826 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Overall, not much to write home about in terms of the weather across the CWFA this evening. Only change with this midpoint update was the need for cautionary headlines for portions of the outer gulf waters where easterly winds are generally between 15 and 20 knots. Otherwise, the region will remain under the control of the 591dam H5 ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico through the night. Expect some patchy fog in those fog favored areas generally from McComb to Baton Rouge to Houma later tonight.
(Frye)



SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

An upper trough is broadening while moving east across the midsection of the country while the southern apex of it lags behind to some degree. This is starting the erosion process of the northern side of the upper ridge that encompasses the Gulf Coast to the Northeast US. Low level moisture from easterly flow across the Gulf is increasing and bringing slightly hazy conditions over southern portions of the CWA. This will continue through tonight into Thursday morning. Not thinking impactful fog, but will be noticeable.

The real changing will be coming late Thursday into Friday. A cold front embedded within the base of the approaching trough should be moving through east Texas and just nudging into far NW LA Thursday morning and reaching into the local forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms will pass across the region as the boundary comes through Friday.
Minimal instability and shear means not looking at anything remotely severe or even strong. Coverage will probably decrease as the day progresses with much of the rain shifting to coastal areas late in the day to the overnight period. Pretty good consensus between GFS and CAMs that this will be the case, but still some models suggesting a slower progression of activity. Thus, latest POPs account for that slower potential with scattered showers hanging on until later Friday night. The same goes for temps. With earlier arrival of the boundary and shower/cloud activity, will have highs limited to lower/mid 80s on Friday.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Deep layer northwest flow on the backside of a strong longwave trough axis will dominate the area through the weekend. On the back of this northwest flow regime, a much colder and drier airmass will advect into the region. This will result in clear skies and cooler than average temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. Model sounding analysis indicates that 925mb temperatures will only peak in the mid to upper 50s over the area, and this is supportive of daytime highs only warming into the mid to upper 70s on both Saturday and Sunday. These readings are a good 5 degrees below average for this time of year. The combination of dry air and clear skies will also support strong radiational cooling each night, and expect to overnight lows dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s south of Lake Pontchartrain and along the immediate coast of Louisiana.

By Monday and Tuesday, the longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS will begin to lift out, and a more zonal flow regime will take hold of the Gulf South. The main impact from this more zonal flow regime will be a gradual increase in daytime highs back to more average readings in the low to mid 80s. Little in the way of moisture advection is expected as northerly flow persists in the low to mid-levels on the eastern side of a mid-level ridge axis, and this will support continued large diurnal temperature ranges. Lows will easily fall into the 50s over inland areas and the lower 60s south the lake and along the coast Monday night.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Pockets of haze are causing some localized reduced visibilities this evening. Overall impacts appear to be limited, but reductions to MVFR ranges cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, fog appears to be possible again early Thursday, especially MCB, HUM, and BTR. Winds appear to be mostly light and variable through the cycle, but a transition later in the cycle will be possible for BTR. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The pressure gradient that was supporting Exercise Caution conditions is beginning to relax. So have let that headline expire.

First significant cold front of the fall season still looks to come marching through Friday night. Expecting Small Craft conditions to develop behind the front. Probably looking at a 24 to 36 hour duration of those conditions before the gradient relaxes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 89 66 84 / 0 20 40 20 BTR 69 92 70 88 / 0 30 40 20 ASD 67 89 70 86 / 0 10 60 30 MSY 73 89 74 85 / 0 10 60 40 GPT 70 87 70 86 / 0 10 60 30 PQL 67 88 68 87 / 0 10 50 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ067>070- 076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...None.

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Cocodrie
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Wed -- 02:25 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:47 PM CDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:38 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Island
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Wed -- 06:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:58 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

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