Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seabrook, TX

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX

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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 081917 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 217 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Just ahead of the mid/upper disturbance approaching from the west, we are seeing scattered strong thunderstorms developing. As the disturbance moves across later this aft and eve, the atmosphere will further destabilize which will set the stage for at least isolated severe thunderstorms, especially near and west of I-45. Expecting thunderstorms to dissipate mid-eve in the 8-10pm window.

Will see less thunderstorm activity tomorrow aft with more subsidence to overcome and the lack of a mid/upper level disturbance. Daytime heating will likely produce isolated convection mid-late aft across the eastern half of the area. It will be warmer tomorrow, with max temps reaching the mid 90s for inland areas.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

On Saturday, an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains should flatten as a midlevel shortwave slides across the state. Forecast soundings show weak capping and elevated instability, particularly during the afternoon/evening hours. While the main shortwave trough is expected to move through northern TX/Oklahoma, weaker impulses sliding through the ridge could be sufficient to overcome the cap, bringing isolated to scatted storms. This environment will also features steep lapse rates (in excess of 7 Deg C/km), high instability (MU CAPE > 2500 J/kg) and low shear (0-6km shear near 24 knots). SPC currently has areas north of I-10 under a marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather, with the northern fringes of our CWA under a slight (level 2/5) risk. Steep low level lapse rates and inverted V-esq forecast soundings suggest that the primary hazard will be damaging winds, though hail cannot be completely ruled out either.

Sunday and onwards looks relatively unchanged. Ridging rebuilds across the Southern Plains, with increasing subsidence aiming to suppress rain chances through the rest of the forecast period. A pseudo omega pattern very briefly develops across the CONUS Sunday night, with this features later drifting E/ENE in the days following. While the upper level flow over Texas becomes more zonal, the subtropical ridge over Mexico should persist. 500mb heights will remain near 591 dam for most of next week. 850mb temperatures also rise to around 21-25C by Wednesday, with NAEFS Mean 850mb temperatures still expected to exceed the 99th throughout most of the work week. 850mb winds also veer southwesterly for Wednesday afternoon, which may further enhance heating.

The main takeaway is that next week will be very hot. Daytime highs will threaten to break triple digits with peak heat indicies likely exceeding 105F. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is anticipating a heat wave spanning across parts of the South-central and Southeastern CONUS, placing these areas under a Moderate (level 2/3)
risk of Excessive Heat throughout the upcoming work week. Those with outdoor plans should be wary of the temperatures and practice heat safety. Stay hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activities whenever possible.

03

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Starting to see thunderstorms develop between UTS and CLL. The atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon, so expecting at least SCT TSRA in a couple of hours, some strong and/or severe TSRA are possible, especially near CLL. Will have a TEMPO to TSRA this aft for inland TAF sites. Convection will propagate to the SE and last until early eve.

Wood

MARINE
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Light, sea breeze-land breeze driven winds and low seas will prevail through tonight. Winds become W/SW on Friday, shifting S/SE and strengthening over the weekend while seas gradually rise to 3 to 4 feet. Rain chances dwindle on Sunday with dry weather prevailing into next week.

03



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 95 73 96 / 20 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 72 95 73 95 / 20 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 77 89 80 88 / 20 10 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Morgans Point, TX

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas

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