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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 250 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming slightly choppy to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 250 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to moderate east to northeast winds are expected through Wednesday. Winds are expected to increase and veer to the southeast then south on Thursday into Friday, resulting in a gradual increase in seas. Showers are possible on Friday. A cold front is expected to bring a chance of Thunderstorms on Saturday. Stronger winds and increasing winds are expected behind the front. Small craft advisory level conditions are possible in the front's wake.

FXUS64 KHGX 052252 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 452 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Fairly benign and generally pleasant weather conditions remain the expectation in the immediate term with broad surface high pressure continuing to dominate the pattern over the Central CONUS. We will begin to see the beginnings of a pattern shift over the next 24-36 hours as this area shifts very gradually to the east, bringing about a shift to an east/southeast surface flow that will eventually set into place more robust moisture return later this week. However, for the time being, conditions will remain cool and dry with daytime highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s, overnight lows today and tomorrow mainly in the 40s, and little in the way of cloud cover.
Rainfall chances through Thursday afternoon effectively remain at zero.

Cady

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

We begin the long term on an uneventful note for Thursday as a mid/upper ridge pushes eastward across the southern plains. Sfc high pressure to our east will summon the return of onshore flow from the Gulf. Though southwesterly flow aloft, southeasterly flow at the sfc, and rising mid/upper pressure heights are a strong sign of a warming trend, Thursday is only expected to be a little warmer than Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s across the CWA. The changing airmass will really be felt Thursday night when lows only drop into the mid/upper 50s (compared to the upper 30s to upper 40s of recent). By Friday, a deep layer trough digs southward over the Rockies and western plains, inducing LL cyclogenesis over the Texas Panhandle.
Shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft well ahead of the trough could bring showers to SE TX as early as Friday. For now, we have added slight PoPs to our coastal counties on Friday. However, recent runs of the global deterministic guidance suggest PoPs may need to be adjusted higher in future updates. Strengthening onshore flow and associated increased WAA/moisture advection result in a breezy, mild, and somewhat muggy forecast for your Friday with highs in the 70s and dew points in the 60s.

The more interesting/dynamic set up occurs on Saturday as strengthening sfc low pressure over Oklahoma sends a strong sfc cold front southward into SE TX. Given the shear and instability parameters suggested by the guidance, there remains a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, it is not guaranteed that all parameters will be a slam dunk for strong storms. First, SW flow aloft could result in a subsidence inversion which would suppress updrafts. In addition, the cold front could push through early enough in the day to deny our environment the peak instability that would come with day time heating. For now, our forecast continues to show a good chance of rain and thunderstorms on Saturday. But the timing of the rain/storms along with the chance of severe weather remains uncertain.

Conditions in the front's wake are expected to be windy and much cooler. Afternoon highs on Sunday may not warm out of the 50s.
Our current temp grids shows overnight lows in the 30s returning for areas north of I-10 and outside of Houston's urban heat island on Sunday night. The early outlook for Monday of next week shows temps modifying but remaining on the cool side with highs generally in the 60s.

Self



AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 433 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. Light NE/E winds will become variable during the evening/overnight hours.

03

MARINE
Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light to moderate east to northeast winds will eventually become southeasterly on Thursday, bringing a surge of more humid air.
Southerly winds up to 15-20 knots on Friday are expected to begin a upward trend in seas, possibly reaching 5 feet offshore. Friday may also feature scattered showers over the Gulf waters. A strong cold front is expected to push offshore Saturday bringing a chance of thunderstorms along with increasing winds and waves in its wake. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Current forecast shows winds and seas reaching Small Craft Advisory levels behind the front with wind gusts approaching 35 knots offshore.
The exact timing of the front is uncertain. Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 41 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 46 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 61 53 67 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Tue -- 12:04 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:46 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM CST     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:02 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:06 PM CST     -0.30 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 04:40 PM CST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:48 PM CST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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