Seabrook, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seabrook, TX

June 20, 2024 12:52 PM CDT (17:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM
Moonrise 6:33 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1004 Am Cdt Thu Jun 20 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .

Rest of today - East winds around 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms.

Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots, easing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, easing to slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, easing to smooth after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.

Saturday - East winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy in the afternoon.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.

Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1004 Am Cdt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
hazardous winds and seas continue today as tropical depression alberto moves into mexico. Winds and seas will gradually decrease. However, it may take until sometime on Friday for conditions to fall below small craft advisory criteria, especially for offshore areas. This weekend into early next week, moderate east to southeast winds are expected. There will be a daily risk of showers and Thunderstorms through the forecast period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 201725 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As I begin typing this AFD, the center of Tropical Storm Alberto is approaching the coast of Mexico, south of Tampico. But as most of you already know, Alberto's winds, rains, and enhanced tides extend well to the north of the center. Live cameras and water level gauges show that saltwater inundation is already occurring along the coast. Coastal flooding impacts during high tide today will likely be similar to yesterday. Many low-lying coastal roads will become unpassable again. Ferry services may experience additional disruptions. As Alberto pushes inland over Mexico, the steep gradient over the Gulf responsible for the large fetch of easterly winds should begin to slowly relax. This will result in a gradual decline in the winds and a decreasing risk of coastal flooding. That being said, water levels will remain above average through the weekend and we cannot rule out minor coastal flooding during high tide on Friday. Current model guidance suggests water levels will remain just below Coastal Flood Advisory criteria on Friday. But it's worth watching.

MIMIC-TPW imagery suggest that much of the deep tropical moisture is being funneled into south Texas and Mexico, with a somewhat drier airmass pushing into our neck of the woods. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure over NE CONUS is building southwest towards Texas. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the ridge will continue building this way, increasing our mid/upper pressure heights. This makes me wonder if global models are a little too aggressive with diurnal PoPs today. There will be widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving in from the Gulf of the Mexico. Will mesoscale and diurnal forcings allow for numerous showers or thunderstorms? Or will the aforementioned synoptic features suppress lift, keeping any shower/thunderstorm activity isolated to widely scattered. We opted for moderate PoPs (~50-60%)
from I-10 to the coast. PoPs drop off north of I-10, ranging from ~30% in the Brazos Valley to Montgomery Co, to less than 10% in our northernmost Piney Woods counties. Friday appears to be a similar day but with a little more ML dry air. Therefore, we opted for slightly lower PoPs.

Temperature wise, today is expected to be warm and humid with highs averaging around 90F across the CWA (a little 'cooler' at the coast, and a tad hotter in the Piney Woods). Tonight is looking seasonably warm and muggy with lows generally in the 70s, with coastal areas struggling to drop below 80F. With a tinge of drier ML air leading to less expected cloud coverage on Friday, highs are forecast to be a little hotter, with low/mid 90s north of I-10 and upper 80s to low 90s south of I-10 to the coast.

Self

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Model guidance continues to indicate the development of another tropical disturbance over or near the Bay of Campeche during the weekend which slowly tracks west northwest towards the eastern coast of Mexico. In response to the mid to upper level ridge over the Southern Plains, the disturbance may not be able to move northward much and could make landfall over the eastern coast of Mexico, similar to TS Alberto. One difference noted since the model runs from 24 hours ago, is that the wind field does seem a little more organized in the latest run...although still somewhat elongated as it reaches the coastline. The general behavior of this disturbance is similar to TS Alberto but smaller. Thus, indirect impacts from the disturbance is possible this weekend into early next week but not as strong as what we have been experiencing with TS Alberto. The NHC outlook currently has a 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 50% chance of formation within the next 7 days for this disturbance. Interests along the Texas coasts should continue to monitor the development of this system.

What are we then to expect for the next few days? To start, conditions are anticipated to be more on the tranquil side on Saturday for most inland areas. Locations near and along the coasts could see some isolated/passing showers during the day. On Sunday, we may begin to see rain chances increasing from southwest to northeast as low level moisture increases and diurnally driven showers develop and/or showers and storms associated to the disturbance move across Southeast TX. A similar weather pattern is possible on Monday as the disturbance moves inland across the eastern coast of Mexico. Although we are not expecting significant impacts with this system inland, we could see limited impacts over the coastal locations and Gulf waters. This may include higher seas, gusty winds, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding (in particular during high tide). We will need to wait and see how this system develops to know more on these impacts, therefore, continue to monitor the updated forecasts.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, pulses of low level moisture will continue to move over our region and if the environment remains unstable and is able to overcome the ridge, we could have isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each day. This may give some relief from the heat for some, but with temperatures rising into the mid 90s at some locations (mainly north of I-10) and dewpoints staying in the upper 70s, we may be looking at daytime heat indices between 105-110 deg F increasing the potential for dangerous heat impacts for some folks. Make sure to practice heat safety and make the appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

Cotto (24)

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Still seeing MVFR ceilings at central and coastal TAF sites.
Expecting cloud bases to lift above 3k feet in 1 to 2 hours inland, however, may keep MVFR ceilings at LBX and GLS this aft.
Scattered SHRA from HOU to SGR will continue and then expect some expansion to the north with further heating this aft. Don't expect much inland SHRA activity once we lose heating this eve.
Drier air will be in place tomorrow, so less SHRA around on Fri.
TSRA chances look really low, so left TSRA out of TAFs.

Wood

MARINE
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hazardous winds and seas along with elevated tides continue to plague our coastal and offshore waters this morning. Coastal flooding impacts during high today are likely to be similar to yesterday. Offshore seas this morning are 10-15 feet while winds are averaging around 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The steep gradient fueling the large fetch over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to gradually relax today, resulting in a gradual decline in winds and seas. However, it may take until Friday morning or afternoon for conditions to drop below Small Craft Advisory levels. This is especially true for the offshore seas, which tend decrease slowly in these large fetch scenarios. Moderate east to southeast winds and 3 to 5 foot seas are expected this weekend into early next week.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of Campeche for another possible tropical system that could materialize by early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast and tropical updates.

For the latest tropical weather updates check out nhc.noaa.gov

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 93 73 94 / 20 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 92 75 94 / 20 30 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 81 90 / 30 50 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313- 335>338-436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi52 minNE 16G19 84°F 84°F30.08
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi52 minE 17G21 83°F 82°F30.07
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi52 minE 8.9G13 85°F 30.06
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi52 minE 22G25 83°F 83°F30.04
GRRT2 22 mi52 minNE 14G20 83°F 82°F30.04
GTOT2 23 mi52 minE 15G21 85°F 85°F30.04
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi52 minE 19G23 82°F 88°F30.08
HIST2 31 mi52 minE 16G20 84°F 89°F30.07
LUIT2 38 mi52 minE 21G25 84°F 84°F30.05
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi42 minE 18G23 84°F30.06
KGVW 40 mi17 minE 18G27 84°F 77°F
FPST2 49 mi52 minENE 24G27 84°F 82°F30.02


Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KEFD ELLINGTON,TX 10 sm58 minENE 13G238 smMostly Cloudy84°F77°F79%30.08
KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX 15 sm33 minE 13G258 smOvercast86°F77°F75%30.09
KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX 16 sm59 minE 15G2410 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 88°F75°F66%30.08
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Wind History graph: EFD
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Tide / Current for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 12:33 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:24 AM CDT     2.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:27 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:17 PM CDT     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
12
am
-0.5
1
am
0.4
2
am
1.3
3
am
2
4
am
2.3
5
am
2.3
6
am
2
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.2
12
pm
-0.2
1
pm
-0.5
2
pm
-0.7
3
pm
-0.9
4
pm
-1.1
5
pm
-1.4
6
pm
-1.8
7
pm
-2.1
8
pm
-2.3
9
pm
-2.3
10
pm
-2
11
pm
-1.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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