Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:44PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:08 AM CDT (07:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:29PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 950 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..South winds increasing to around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy after midnight. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 950 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore flow is expected to increase tonight. The chance of showers and Thunderstorms increases late tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front that should push off the coast late in the morning or early in the afternoon. Moderate north to northeasterly flow occurs after the frontal passage with winds of 15 to 25 knots and rough seas across the offshore waters through Tuesday afternoon. An onshore flow returns to the area around midweek followed by the passage of another cold front around Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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location: 29.61, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 210448
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1148 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

Aviation
Still looking for MVFR ceiling development overnight ahead of the cold
front. Latest timing of the front and associated north wind shift looks
like cll area 09z-12z, iah area 12z-15z and gls area 14z-17z. Line of
shra with embedded strong severe tsra has developed along and ahead
of the front in central texas, and expect to see gusty winds, brief
heavy downpours and possible ifr ceilings with this line as it moves
across the area. Improving conditions can be expected from N to s
as the day progresses with skies eventually becoming clear. 42
prev discussion... Issued 353 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
discussion...

short term [through Monday]...

hires models continue to point to the possibility of some iso sct
late afternoon or early evening precip. Expect anything that does
develop to dissipate around or slightly after sunset. Otherwise, the
majority of the night should remain fairly quiet with some stratus
developing. Winds should remain up enough whereas fog shouldn't be a
concern.

As we approach sunrise, however, look for a line of showers and
tstms to be moving in from north tx and across SE tx during the
morning hours. There is some uncertainty in regards to timing, as
some of the guidance wants to slow the front down south of the
highway 59 69 corridor during the day tomorrow. But considering the
southward push into the region occurring during the overnight hours
and expected cold pool behind it with the precip, have trended the
fcst more heavily weighted with the faster solns (tx tech wrf, arw,
nmm and ecmwf).

Expect the line of precip to be on a gradual weakening trend (severe
wx-wise) as it continues its southward push thru the area with the
better forcing dynamics situated N NE of the area. Though can't rule
out a few embedded stronger storms, the general expectation would be
for some 25-45mph gusts and brief heavy downpours along the leading
edge. Improving conditions and clearing is expected a few hours
behind the front. 47
long term [Tuesday through Sunday]...

expect a cool down behind the front Monday, with high temperatures
for a majority of the week peaking in the 70s to low 80s. Low
temperatures will also take a tumble, falling into the upper 40s
to 60s across much of the region. Conditions should remain dry
through the middle part of the week, with the next best chance
for precipitation not returning until Thursday. Onshore flow
strengthens and advects in moisture by Thursday morning, and
showers and thunderstorms should spread from west to east across
much of southeast texas throughout the day. There should be better
coverage of precipitation along and south of i-10 Thursday.

Precipitable water values should once again rise to near 1.7-1.9
inches, in addition to a short wave embedded in the upper level
flow that shifts from west to east across the region. Therefore,
expect thunderstorms to produce frequent lightning, gusty winds in
and around stronger storms, and brief heavy downpours.

In the far extended, another cold front moves into the picture,
but there still remains some uncertainty in the details regarding
the strength and timing of this feature. In the latest global
guidance, the GFS remains the most progressive, and pushes the
front through rather quickly with the boundary reaching the coast
by late Thursday evening. The GFS is followed by the canadian and
ecmwf solutions, which lag behind by about 6 to 9 hours. This
front looks to be stronger than the one anticipated for tomorrow,
and could drop temperatures as low as the mid 40s to upper 50s
during the overnight hours. High pressure should build back in
behind this frontal passage, leaving dry conditions for most of
the weekend.

Marine...

small craft should continue to exercise caution through the
overnight hours as onshore flow strengthens. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight and Monday out
ahead of our next frontal passage which should reach the coast by
Monday afternoon and push through the gulf waters by evening
hours. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots behind the front, out
of the north to northeast and small craft advisories will likely
be warranted. Light to moderate southwesterly flow should prevail
for most of next week. Our next front should arrive late in the
week.

Additionally, a coastal flood statement remains in effect for the
gulf facing beaches through Monday morning to account for minor
coastal flooding around times of high tide. Water levels should
peak around 3.7 feet mllw. The more susceptible locations that
could see the minor flooding will be along the bolivar peninsula,
jamaica beach, blue water highway and surfside beach.

Hathaway
fire weather...

clearing skies and falling dewpoints behind the passing cold front
Monday morning will lead to rh's bottoming out around 30% north and
west of the highway 59 corridor Monday afternoon. However, rainfall
earlier in the day should mitigate most fire weather concerns. 47

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 67 77 50 79 49 90 40 10 0 0
houston (iah) 73 80 55 77 53 30 90 10 0 0
galveston (gls) 75 80 66 77 68 50 90 30 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 8 am cdt Monday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport tx out 20 nm... Galveston bay...

matagorda bay... Waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to
freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi57 min S 11 G 14 80°F 77°F1006.7 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi57 min S 17 G 19 81°F 76°F1006.3 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi57 min SSW 7 G 15 81°F 81°F1006.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi57 min S 17 G 21 82°F 77°F1006.1 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi57 min S 13 G 18 80°F 78°F1006.5 hPa
GTOT2 23 mi57 min S 7 G 13 81°F 77°F1006.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi51 min S 11 G 16 80°F 79°F1007.3 hPa
HIST2 31 mi57 min S 8.9 G 14 80°F 78°F1007 hPa
KXIH 38 mi34 min S 21 G 29 82°F 77°F
LUIT2 38 mi51 min SSE 14 G 22 82°F 80°F1007.8 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi39 min S 21 G 27 84°F 1007.7 hPa80°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 44 mi129 min SSE 19 G 23 81°F1007 hPa (-0.9)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 49 mi51 min S 18 G 23 82°F 79°F
FPST2 49 mi57 min SE 24 G 27 82°F 81°F1006.3 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi79 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1006.8 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi76 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1007.6 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi76 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1007.3 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX23 mi74 minS 9 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F77°F89%1006.8 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX24 mi77 minS 1810.00 miFair and Breezy82°F78°F88%1007.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5------CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW5S10S11S15--S16S14S14S10S8S8S7S8S10S10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS6W6S6SW8SW9SW5S11S8S7S8S6S6S6--S6
2 days agoCalmNE3CalmCalmN3N3--N3N5N5--Calm----SE4E6--SE3SE3E4CalmCalm--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 02:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM CDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.10.80.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1-1.2-1.4-1.6-1.7-1.7-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.30.41.11.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.