Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 29, 2021 7:01 PM CDT (00:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:05PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 337 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light onshore winds will prevail into the weekend. A weak area of low pressure will pass by to the south swinging winds from east to northeast and back to southeast today into Friday. This will lead to an increase in rain chances today. Shower and Thunderstorm activity are expected each day, peaking during the overnight and morning hours before moving inland. Expect stronger and variable winds along with locally higher seas with any strong storms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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location: 29.61, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 292344 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance].

Southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to diminish as we move into the nighttime hours. Scattered thunderstorms in our far northern counties are not expected to pose any impacts to any sites, but CLL and UTS have prevailing VCTS through sunset. VFR conditions will prevail for most sites overnight, but there is a brief window from 12z- 15z for CLL/UTS/CXO to experience MVFR conditions with cloud ceilings dropping. Not entirely confident on this occuring, so only have in 5SM and FEW020 for this time frame for now. Light and variable overnight winds will give way to southeasterly winds around 5-8 knots on Friday morning. Hi-res model guidance indicates that the coastal sites (LBX/GLS) will get in on morning rain showers around 12z-15z. This is followed up by scattered thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze developing along the coast and moving northward throughout the afternoon hours. The highest confidence for coverage as of right now is for the southern tier of sites (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS), so these locations have VCTS through sunset. Like yesterday, the convection will dissipate just after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/.

DISCUSSION.

The dog days of summer are in full effect, as the forecast continues to be dominated with highs in the middle to upper 90s, and the heat index easily rising into the triple digits each day. Though convection does not look terribly widespread, we should at least expect some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon, relatively close to the seabreeze.

Next week, a very weak cold front (kinda sorta) looks to droop into the area. No real cooler air to speak of is fair to expect here - but, it will provide another focus for the development of showers and storms, and the expectation of some more clouds and some rain should also mean slightly cooler afternoon temperatures.

SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night].

The radar is showing scattered showers popping up across our north from Caldwell to Lufkin, and a few more isolated showers near the coast (along with a wildfire plume in Jefferson County, just outside of our forecast area!). Convection is more widespread offshore, though, and between that and the easterly flow around a trough far to our south - I suspect that is robbing the environment of some support for thunderstorm development today. It also certainly does not help that we are not terribly far south of the peak of an upper high that dominates most of the Continental US, which is surely close enough to be hampering upward motion to at least some extent in our area.

Still, we can expect continued scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm through the afternoon, trailing off as we lose daytime heating towards sunset. Very seasonably, we can expect the land area to see a relatively clear sky, warm temperatures, and light/variable winds overnight. Late tonight, nocturnal convection should begin over the Gulf, and begin the daily pattern anew. Yup, this means another hot and humid day tomorrow along with isolated to scattered showers and storms that should gradually push inland with the seabreeze before fading in the evening.

Much like today, the matter of heat index will be a race between rising temperatures and dewpoints mixing down through the day. Since this is more or less a persistence/climo forecast, expectations are that heat index values exceeding 108 will not be widespread enough or long-lived enough to need a heat advisory as needed by our neighbors to the east and northeast. Still, we will be very, very close to that threshold, so heat safety should still be a consideration for work and sustained play outdoors. If planned for and mitigated, the heat should not be a dangerous threat - but if ignored or flouted, this heat can quickly become deadly.

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday].

The upper level pattern will be transitioning this weekend with the ridge of high pressure sliding from the Central Plains on Saturday to over the Rockies on Sunday. That won't have any large impacts for us over the weekend, but will for the majority of next week as this will allow for a trough to dig into the eastern half of the US. But before we get to that, first lets talk heat and humidity for the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be climbing into the mid to upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures getting very close to the 100 degree mark on Sunday for areas north of I-10. PWATs over the weekend will remain around 2 inches with dew points in the mid 70s and light to no wind or cloud cover. These conditions will lead to heat indices climbing into the 105 to 110 degree range creating dangerous heat conditions. Heat Advisories may be needed. Typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend which may provide temporary relief from the heat where those storms form.

The heat and humidity will continue into next week, but not nearly as high as this weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. This cool down is tied to that aforementioned trough digging down into US ushering a diffuse boundary into the area late Monday. This boundary will stall out across Southeast Texas through Thursday increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

MARINE.

Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue through the weekend with light onshore flow and and wave heights between 1 and 3 feel. There will be a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms creating locally gusty winds and higher seas. A boundary approaching the Gulf from the north on Monday, which will stall across Southeast Texas through Thursday. This will increase rain chances through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 96 77 / 10 20 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 77 95 77 97 78 / 10 30 10 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 83 / 10 30 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



DISCUSSION . Luchs SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . Fowler AVIATION . Batiste MARINE . Fowler


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi44 min SSE 7 G 12 90°F 87°F1015.3 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi44 min SSE 9.9 G 13 88°F 92°F1014.9 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi44 min S 7 G 11 89°F 89°F1014.7 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi44 min SE 14 G 15 85°F 89°F1014.6 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi44 min SSE 8 G 13 86°F 91°F1014.7 hPa
GTOT2 23 mi44 min SE 7 G 11 88°F 86°F1015.1 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi44 min S 11 G 14 86°F 90°F1015.1 hPa
HIST2 31 mi44 min SSE 5.1 G 8 87°F 88°F1015.5 hPa
LUIT2 38 mi44 min ESE 8.9 G 11 86°F 89°F1014.7 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi32 min SSE 9.7 G 12 85°F 87°F1015.1 hPa79°F
FPST2 49 mi44 min SE 8 G 9.9 85°F 86°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi72 minSSE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds91°F73°F56%1014.9 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi69 minSE 1010.00 miFair92°F73°F54%1015.6 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi69 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F73°F54%1015.5 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX23 mi67 minSSE 11 G 1910.00 miFair88°F72°F59%1014.9 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX24 mi70 minSSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F77°F68%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E5CalmS5S5S5S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N6NE8E7NE9NE8SE9SE11SE11SE11
1 day agoS9--S7NE21
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NE15E4S4SE3CalmN5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W4E3NE6--E5
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2 days agoS8S11S6S6SW5SW5--SW5------SW5W3W6W7S3S5NW5CalmS7SE6S12SW6
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM CDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM CDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:48 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 PM CDT     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:00 PM CDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.400.50.91.110.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.2-1-0.7-0.30.10.30.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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