Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 2:24 PM   Moonset 3:14 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Saturday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Sunday - North winds near 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Sunday night - Northeast winds near 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday - East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 343 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a continued onshore flow will persist into Saturday. Periods of haze and fog can be anticipated though it is not expected to become dense. The next cold front and associated showers and Thunderstorms will push off the coast late Saturday night and Sunday morning followed by moderate northeast winds in its wake. Onshore winds resume during the early to middle of next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 182320 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A cold front is currently making it's way through north/north central Texas this afternoon. This boundary is expected to stall out somewhere around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area later this evening. With the cap weakening and rising instability prior to the front's arrival, there is a chance that isolated storms may be produced, few of which could become strong to severe. SPC currently has the north/northwestern fringes of our CWA under a Marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe weather late this afternoon/early this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat posed by these storms, though large hail cannot be completely ruled out either.
Diminishing solar heating should reduce instability by the time the front makes it out our area, hence why the severe threat remains low at this time. Humid conditions can be expected overnight, with isolated patchy fog possible heading into the early morning hours of Friday. Lows for Friday morning will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, depending on where the frontal boundary stalls out.

Friday looks to be another warm, humid day with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. High resolution models hint at the potential for isolated showers in areas south of the I-10 corridor during the afternoon hours. While strong capping remains in place, lifting from passing shortwave energy may be sufficient to produce light, isolated showers underneath the cap. Ample moisture remains in place for these showers as PWs range from 1.3-1.8 inches. Humid conditions brought by the surplus of moisture will result in WBGT values peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Those planning strenuous outdoor activities should be mindful of this early season heat, as the human body needs time acclimate to these warmer conditions.

03

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be trending up as the day progresses Saturday...and more so Saturday night. PW's between 1.5-2.0" will be pooling across the area. Coupled with some weak upper impulses moving overhead, look for some iso-sct activity during the early part of the day. More widespread showers/tstm development is anticipated later in the afternoon, especially northwest of the I69-US59 corridor as larger scale lift increases with the approach of the next trof and cold front. During the evening and overnight hours, we'll see the cold front moving into the area. Flow aloft becomes fairly diffluent across northern parts of the CWA ..and generally parallel to the surface frontal boundary. This favors some training/regenerating storms and the potential for some locally heavy rainfall. Although all of the region should see precip overnight, guidance continues to favor locations generally north of a Brenham-Livingston line for the potentially more significant rain totals. Just eyeballing deterministic models, an average 1-3" might be anticipated there (tapering down to <1" for metro/coastal areas). But, assuming fcst environment doesn't significantly change...this could be one of those times where one could see much higher localized totals depending on where the zone of diffluence sets up. In regards to severe wx...overall instability is not looking very impressive.
Would be more concerned about heavy rain north of the Houston area at this point moreso than severe storms.

The front clears the coast early Sunday and lingering rainfall should mostly clear out during the mid morning hours followed by some drier/cooler air filtering in.

Nice, mild wx is anticipated thru the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Return flow sets back up along with a corresponding warming/modifying trend and some low rain chances as we head into midweek. 47

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Predominately VFR conditions will continue through sunset with SCT to occasionally BKN CIGs around 2500ft and southeasterly winds around 10kts. After sunset, winds become light and variable overnight for inland terminals, while GLS and LBX will tonight light southeasterly winds. Widespread MVFR conditions will begin around 2-3z with CIGs around 1500-2500ft then becoming IFR at times between 8-12z along with patchy fog. A mostly stalled boundary may bring some showers and storms across the northern portion of the region been 5 and 9z at CLL and UTS, but coverage and probability of these storms will be fairly low so don't include mention in the TAFs. CIGs improve slowly during the late morning to early afternoon bringing VFR conditions back to most terminals with the exception of CLL, UTS, and GLS that may see lingering MVFR conditions through Friday afternoon.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A continued onshore flow will persist into Saturday. Periods of haze and fog can be anticipated though it is not expected to become dense. The next cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will push off the coast late Saturday night and Sunday morning followed by moderate northeast winds in its wake.
Onshore winds resume during the early to middle of next week. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 67 82 66 80 / 10 10 10 60 Houston (IAH) 72 86 70 82 / 20 10 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 72 79 71 77 / 20 20 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 02:26 AM CDT     -0.59 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 04:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM CDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:19 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:04 PM CDT     1.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:23 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:05 PM CDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
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Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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