Bayou Vista, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayou Vista, LA

June 18, 2024 7:45 AM CDT (12:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 4:13 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 355 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect through Thursday morning - .

Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late this morning and afternoon. Bay waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms this morning. Showers. Thunderstorms likely this afternoon.

Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 355 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis - Potential tropical cyclone number 1 in the southwestern gulf of mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated Thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week, while the prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 181202 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 702 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 454 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Latest IR and WV imagery shows Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 situated over the Bay of Campeche, with a broad plume of tropical moisture streaming north across the Gulf of Mexico into LA early this morning. This was producing a swath of light to moderate rain over eastern portions of the CWA and the adjacent coastal waters, with an occasional lightning strike in a few embedded stronger cells over the waters per KLCH radar. Radar estimated rainfall amounts over the past couple of days shows an area of 2-4 inches across portions of southern LA along with some isolated amounts to around 5 inches, while most areas have had less than an inch elsewhere.

The latest guidance from NHC keeps the system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico the next few days, eventually moving west northwest to west toward the northeast coast of Mexico by late Wednesday into early Thursday. While the system will remain well south of our area, impacts will still be felt primarily over our coastal waters with strong and gusty easterly winds, large and very rough wave and flooding in coastal areas of SE TX and SW LA. Abnormally high moisture content in the atmosphere (with PWATs exceeding 2.2 inches) will also contribute to the potential for very heavy rainfall in some of the showers or storms, mainly across our lower SE TX and SW LA zones.

Conditions will remain unsettled at least through Wednesday, but should begin to improve some by Thursday. However, coastal flooding may persist into the latter part of the week as water levels will be slow to recover as easterly winds gradually diminish.

24

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Deep southeasterly flow between an elongated midlevel trough over the western Gulf associated with PTC 1 and ridging over the mid- Atlantic coast will continue to tap deep tropical moisture from the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. The latest LAPS Precipitable Water analysis shows PWATs near 2.1 inches, and these values are expected to surge to between 2.2 and 2.5 inches across our SW zones later today into tonight. Broad ascent within the very moist and uncapped atmosphere will facilitate development of widespread showers across the region again today, Given the unusually high moisture content, precipitation efficiency will be maximized resulting in the potential for torrential downpours with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches an hour. Needless to say, this would be problematic in any urban areas, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of lower SE TX. The good news is that guidance continues to show most of the heavier rainfall consolidating further to the southwest, and this is reflected in the latest ERO for today with the Moderate Risk (level 3 out of 4)
now confined mainly to Jefferson County, with the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) from Hardin County southeast toward Vermilion Parish. The northern sections (roughly north of Highway 190) are no longer outlined in any excessive rainfall risk.

The risk for coastal flooding has remained consistent over the past couple of days. P-ETSS guidance continues to indicate tide levels between 2 and 3 FT MHHW at Texas Point and between 1.5 and 2.5 FT MHHW at Calcasieu Pass at times of high tide between late tonight into Wednesday morning. Guidance spread has narrowed some, with the boundary of the 10th and 90th percentiles within flood warning criteria. The Coastal Flood Warning for Jefferson County and Cameron Parish remains in effect, and has been extended through 12Z Thursday as another high tide could reach 2.0 FT MHHW again. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for southern Calcasieu Parish and southern Orange County around Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes, as well as further east across lower Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes.

By Wednesday, the bulk of the moisture and energy associated with the system will shift westward into TX, with slightly drier air beginning to filter into the region as the ridge over the east coast builds west. The weather pattern will begin transitioning on Wednesday and Thursday toward a more seasonal one with mainly scattered daytime convection forming along the seabreeze and other mesoscale boundaries.

Daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal thanks to widespread clouds and showers today, and highs could struggle to reach the middle 80s. As rain chances begin to diminish over the next few days, highs will warm back to around 90 or into the lower 90s each afternoon.

24

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Large mid to upper level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and Southeastern U.S. states expected to be the dominate weather feature Friday through Sunday. Lingering moisture across the Gulf expected to keep chances of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters, diminishing chances further inland as the ridge provides additional subsidence. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s expected Friday. With the ridge of high pressure nearly overhead Saturday and Sunday, afternoon temperatures expected to increase in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, lower to mid 90s further south.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values expected to rise as well, likely in the 102-107 range, possibly approaching Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of 108-112 for our region).

Monday and Tuesday, the mid to upper level ridge weakens as a broad mid to upper level trough prevails over the Central U.S. The trough should allow moisture from another tropical disturbance across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico to advanced further northward, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms further inland. Blended guidance shows 40-60% for Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoons. Highs in the lower to mid 90s north of I-10, and upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast.

08/DML

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

TAF sites this morning are VFR (BKN between 10K and 12K FT)
although some SCT low clouds are noted around the area, with a few obs sites reporting IFR cigs. Expect generally VFR conditions with cigs between 3500-6000 FT today amid increasing SHRA and isolated TSRA. Convection should become more widespread at the southern terminals through the morning, with periods of MVFR or lower vsbys/cigs. A few wind gusts to 30-35 KT will also be possible within some of the activity. Outside of convection, easterly winds around 10 KT are expected at AEX/ARA/LFT, while speeds will be sustained 12-18 KT with gusts up to 25 KT at BPT/LCH. Convection should begin to diminish from east to west late tonight, with MVFR cigs possible at BPT/LCH overnight.

24

MARINE
Issued at 454 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will gradually move west northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the northeast coast of Mexico by Wednesday night. A rather large wind field associated with the system, along with a tight gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, will provide moderate to strong and gusty east to southeast winds in the 20 to 30 knot sustained range with occasional gusts up to 40 knots. This will also allow for wave heights to increase in the 7 to 14 foot range. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through mid week.

As long as the system stays weak, deep moisture will be out from the north side of the system, keeping widespread showers and storms through mid week.

24/Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 85 72 89 72 / 40 40 30 0 LCH 84 75 89 76 / 70 70 70 30 LFT 84 76 91 77 / 70 50 60 10 BPT 86 75 88 77 / 70 70 80 40

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ241- 252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ615.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ616.

Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi51 minENE 7G8.9 77°F 81°F29.89
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi51 minENE 11G15 78°F 82°F29.87
EINL1 22 mi51 minE 19G23 80°F 81°F29.8578°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi51 min 78°F 83°F29.89


Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPTN HARRY P WILLIAMS MEMORIAL,LA 6 sm49 minENE 0810 smClear77°F77°F100%29.88
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPTN
   
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Wind History graph: PTN
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Shell Island, Louisiana
   
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Shell Island
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Tue -- 03:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:30 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:51 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.1
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.5
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.3
10
am
1.3
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.7
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
-0.1
10
pm
0
11
pm
0.2


Tide / Current for Point Chevreuil, Louisiana
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Point Chevreuil
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Tue -- 03:13 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:38 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:36 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.1
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.5
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.3
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
0.9
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0
7
pm
-0.2
8
pm
-0.2
9
pm
-0.1
10
pm
0
11
pm
0.2


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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