Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 4:44 AM   Moonset 6:37 PM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 305 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Saturday night - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 305 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 072037 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 337 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another very warm and muggy day with air temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. A few very small brief showers have popped up every now and then with maybe 0.01 of rainfall at best.

Similar conditions will continue for Wednesday into the day on Thursday, so A/C units will be getting plenty of work.

Forecast becomes a little more interesting for late Thursday into Thursday night. The upper level ridge over the forecast area will flatten out and this will allow a short wave to push a surface "cold" front into the forecast area during the evening hours and through it during the overnight. Still some question as to how far south the upper level energy and low convergence will match up to allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop and this will be reflected in the pop forecast with high numbers over central Louisiana and lower numbers along and south of I-10.

A highly anomalous Gulf air mass will be in place before the front arrives with PWAT values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range which are over the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, favorable speed shear, low level instability, and favorable mid level lapse rates, would allow for strong to low severe storms producing heavy rainfall. The question is just how much convection can get going.
Therefore, the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential will be on the low end. Still a couple of days away to watch this and fine tune the details.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Longterm period starts off fairly dry behind a passing cool front and under increasing heights aloft. The ridging that does build in Friday and Saturday will be weak, but combined with slightly drier airmass, no rain chances are anticipated on these days.

Surface high pressure ridge moves to the east on Sunday allowing for return flow and meager rain chances during the afternoon in western zones. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms occurs on Monday and again Tuesday with the arrival of a series of shortwave trofs over the region. Broad lift ahead of trofing will lift a warm front into coastal areas Monday; widespread convection is expected throughout the remainder of the day. Fcst CAPE profiles look very meager on globals, pointing to warm cloud layer processes and very efficient rainfall under forcing from the trof (fcst PWATs well above 1.75 inches once again). So long as precipitation remains progressive and we get a downpour that moves along quickly, flooding concerns will be lower than previous weeks. All concerned parties should monitor the forecast for any changes in the coming days.

Rain chances pick up oncemore on Tuesday with another weak shortwave pulse moving over the coastal warm front.

Thanks to rain-cooled airmass and ambient cloud cover, temperatures will be held in check through the longterm. High temps in the lower 80s are on tap.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The main story in the aviation forecast is the low ceilings with MVFR conditions to start the period becoming IFR overnight. At this point, winds are progged to stay up enough that fog will not be an issue, maybe just some minor visibility restrictions. IFR ceilings will again increase to MVFR by 08/15z.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure at the surface off the southeast US coast will ridge into the coastal waters over the next couple of days, and this will allow light to moderate onshore flow with mainly low to modest seas to continue.

Late Thursday, a surface front will move through the coastal waters with a few showers or storms. A moderate offshore flow will then develop behind the front for Friday into the weekend.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 90 72 91 / 0 0 10 20 LCH 74 86 75 89 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 76 88 76 91 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 75 87 75 89 / 0 0 0 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:23 AM CDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:26 AM CDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:30 PM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:43 PM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:11 AM CDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 PM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:28 PM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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