Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 3:27 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 402 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 402 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight. A weak front will stall over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining southeast to east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday into early Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area, while the front moves south across the coastal waters. Modest to strong offshore winds will develop in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing.

FXUS64 KLCH 191726 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows zonal flow over the region along the northern periphery of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak disturbance is noted over S TX, while the subtropical jet is approaching NW Mexico ahead of a shortwave trough that will move into our region over the weekend.

At the surface, a cold front, located from roughly Little Rock to Longview into central TX, continues to make slow progress southeast. Ahead of the front, southerly winds were maintaining a warm and moist advection regime, with abnormally warm temperatures across the area this morning with readings ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Satellite imagery and observations show widespread mostly low cloud cover and patchy fog across the area.

Warm and humid conditions will continue today into tonight, while the trough approaching NW Mexico this morning will bring an increasing chance for showers and a few storms over the weekend as it moves east across TX.

24

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances will remain limited today and tonight despite considerable moisture over the region. The cold front will meander slowly into the area, gradually stalling tonight into Saturday as the boundary becomes oriented parallel to flow aloft. Given the weak perturbations in the flow aloft and the front settling into the area, a few showers cannot be ruled out. However, forecast soundings show capping at the base of a dry layer from roughly 850 to 600 mb and this will likely hinder convective development today. Gradual moistening through the column will take place tonight but the airmass should remain capped, again keeping shower chances low (but non-zero).

Temperatures will again be well above climo today and tonight. Highs today will climb into the middle to upper 80s. Temperatures across our northern tier of counties and parishes could run a few degrees cooler tonight (assuming the frontal boundary shifts far enough south), but will still likely remain between 5 and 10 degrees above normal with lows falling into the lower to middle 60s. Further south, muggy and warm conditions will again prevail with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Moisture will continue to pool over the region on Saturday as the southern stream shortwave moves into TX. Increasing lift ahead of this feature will produce more widespread showers across TX, with activity spreading into SE TX Saturday afternoon and eastward across SW LA by Saturday evening. The highest PoPs are expected across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with showers and storms tapering off from west to east through Sunday afternoon as the disturbance moves east of the lower MS Valley.

While a few mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible, the overall threat for any organized or severe convection appears minimal. Instead, anomalously high moisture content will be in place (with PWATS peaking between 1.7 and 1.8 inches), and this will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall and high rainfall rates in some of the showers and storms. With this in mind, WPC continues to outline Tyler and NW Jasper in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of 4) and all but the Acadiana region in a MRGL risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Saturday night. The focus shifts toward the Acadiana region by Sunday morning where a MRGL risk has been outlined on the Day 3 outlook. Given the progressive nature of the system, rainfall amounts are not expected to be especially high, with general totals between one half to around one inch. However, localized higher amounts (and an associated flash flood threat) will be possible in areas where training storms develop.

Drier air will begin to filter into the region in the wake of the disturbance, and high pressure building south will provide enough "push" to propel the frontal boundary offshore. There is some uncertainty with respect to daytime temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday, and this will depend on where the boundary settles on Saturday and the degree of CAA developing in the wake of the front on Sunday. A decent temperature gradient will likely setup across the CWA on Saturday, with highs in the low to middle 70s across the north and low to middle 80s across the south. NBM temperatures have trended slightly cooler than the previous forecast, especially for Sunday and Sunday night. For Sunday, highs will likely struggle to reach 70 degrees, especially north of the I-10 corridor, with our northern zones likely topping out in the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile, overnight lows Sunday night are expected to be the coolest of the forecast period as temperatures fall into the middle 40s to around 50.

24

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front will be out of our area by Monday, and post-frontal conditions will be dry and cooler. The pressure gradient behind the front will be tight, leading to robust CAA with northern winds approaching 20 mph. The north wind will also advect a dry, continental airmass overhead, leading to mostly clear skies to start the week. We will also start the week with high pressure overhead and ridging that extends down into southern Texas. The high pressure will be short-lived as the next system will kick it towards the east coast on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler during this time with lows in the 50s along the coast and the upper 40s farther inland.

As the high moves east, our winds will veer and become southern, with strong warming trend and increasing moisture. Temperatures will return to near or slightly above seasonal averages, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. Through the rest of the week, a series of weak short-wave troughs will move north of the region. These will provide marginal, unstable conditions for rainfall during the week.
However PoPs remain on the low side, below 20% through the end of the forecast period.

14/Slaughter

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings along with light winds will continue through the afternoon and into tonight. From midnight through early tomorrow morning patchy fog is expected to develop along and south of I-10. Most guidance keeps the I-10 terminals around 3-5SM through this period however, some guidance does plummet further especially at LCH and BPT so that will be something to keep an eye on. At the same time, ceilings are expected to become IFR to MVFR. Fog will burn off post sunrise tomorrow and ceilings will become MVFR area-wide through the mid to late morning hours.

17

MARINE
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight with high pressure to the east of the area. A weak front will stall over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining southeast to east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday into early Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area, while the front moves south across the coastal waters.

Modest to strong offshore winds will develop in the wake of the front Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required during this timeframe. Winds and seas will diminish through midweek, with winds veering more southeasterly as surface high pressure shifts toward the eastern seaboard.

24

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 86 63 73 50 / 10 10 30 80 LCH 85 69 82 57 / 10 10 10 70 LFT 87 70 84 62 / 10 10 10 70 BPT 86 69 84 59 / 10 10 20 80

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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