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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 902 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters very rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 902 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
winds will be onshore through the rest of Friday and most of Saturday. A cold front passage Saturday evening will bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts. However, the main marine concern will be after the frontal passage on Sunday. Winds will be peaking well above 30 knots with gusts up to 50 knots possible. Flow will be offshore so in addition to the winds, a low-water advisory will be likely along the coastline. During Sunday waves will quickly rise going above 10 feet in the outer coastal waters (20 nmi to 60 nmi). Inner coastal waters will see waves up to 7 feet. Expect a gale watch to be posted during tomorrows forecast package and keep a close eye on the forecast for this weekend.
late Sunday night high pressure will build in behind the front. With next week between 2 and 4 feet.

FXUS64 KLCH 080008 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 608 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The high pressure that has been producing the clear and cool weather has shifted far enough to the east that our winds have shifted to the southeast. Already, we are seeing an increase in dewpoints along the coast along with warmer temperatures. Tonight and Friday, temperatures will be unseasonably warm by 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Tomorrow, we will continue to see the weather pattern change as more moisture is pushed into Acadiana.
Cloud cover will increase while a few spotty showers will be forming as a warm front starts to move up the coast. QPF and PoPs on Friday doesn't look very impressive, and the main concern remains the severe weather threat on Saturday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has most of our area west of Lafayette at a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5).
The main threat looks to be straight-line winds along with large hail. WV imagery shows the low that will be brining the active weather is located near the Oklahoma and Nebraska border. This low will continue to dig south into Texas before pushing across the ArkLaMiss area. Convective parameters with this system have remained steady through the past several model runs, with CAPE values between 1500 and 2000 J/kg, while 0–6 km shear values remain between 30 and 60 knots. These values are enough to be concerning, with a few supercells possible ahead of and embedded along the cold front as it moves through the region. The timing for this event remains an area of uncertainty, with the font moving through the Texas counties in the early evening and leaving the area after midnight. The quick movement of the front will limit the amount of rainfall that we expect to see with QPF, which amounts to between half an inch and an inch.

After the passage of the font, high pressure will start to build back, ending the short-term forecast the same way it began with cool and clear weather.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

For Sunday, the sharp longwave mid to upper level trough axis from the Great Lakes through the Midwest south-southwest to Texas & Louisiana will continue to move eastward. Very strong cold air advection behind the departing cold front expected to bring much colder and drier air across the region with lows in the 40s and highs not getting out the mid 50s. Also noteworthy will be the strong northerly winds with preliminary estimates around 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph across inland locations, and 35 knots with gusts near 45 kts across the coastal waters, which would be solid Gale Warning conditions. These numbers could change slightly, but overall, expect windy conditions around 24 hours post cold front.

Winds expected to diminish rapidly by late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours as the cold surface high over Texas builds east over our region. With clear skies and nearly calm winds expected for Monday morning, lows around 30-32 north of I-10 is the best reasonable estimate at this time. Again, preliminary estimates for now, but some guidance shows temperatures could go as low as the mid/upper 20s across Central Louisiana & Inland Southeast Texas.
Will have a better handle the closer we approach this freeze event.

By Monday afternoon, the surface high overhead expected to move slowly east. Another cold night expected, with the coldest temperatures around 30-32 across Central Louisiana for Tuesday morning. Like the forecast for Monday, some guidance showing slightly colder conditions.

By Tuesday afternoon, the surface high expected to be east of the area, with east to southeast winds returning. By Tuesday night, another large cold surface high expected to build southeast across the Central and Southern U.S. bringing another shot of cooler air across the region. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s and highs in the lower 60s expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

08/DML

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR expected to prevail through tonight under mostly high, thin cirrus, with increasing cloud cover tomorrow along with strengthening southerly flow as an upper level disturbance ejects across the region. Highest probability of shower activity is tomorrow afternoon at KBPT and KLCH, where PROB30 groups were carried. VCSH was used at the remaining terminals. CIGS are expected to remain VFR at KAEX and the Acadiana terminals, but are forecast to lower at KBPT and KLCH where NBM probs are 60-70% for MVFR or lower.

13

MARINE
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Winds will be onshore through the rest of Friday and most of Saturday. A cold front passage Saturday evening will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts. However, the main marine concern will be after the frontal passage on Sunday. Winds will be peaking well above 30 knots with gusts up to 50 knots possible. Flow will be offshore so in addition to the winds, a low-water advisory will be likely along the coastline. During Sunday waves will quickly rise going above 10 feet in the outer coastal waters (20 nmi to 60 nmi). Inner coastal waters will see waves up to 7 feet. Expect a Gale Watch to be posted during tomorrows forecast package and keep a close eye on the forecast for this weekend.

Late Sunday night high pressure will build in behind the front.
With next week between 2 and 4 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 45 71 60 78 / 10 30 20 80 LCH 52 72 63 76 / 10 40 10 60 LFT 50 73 63 79 / 10 30 10 50 BPT 56 74 65 79 / 10 40 10 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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