Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:46 AM

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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 300 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Bay waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Friday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.

GMZ400 300 Pm Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and low pressure across the plains.

FXUS64 KLCH 200442 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1142 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Ridging set up overhead combined with very dry air advecting into the region (per today's 12 and 00Z RAOBs) resulted in a very warm and clear day for southeast Texas and much of Louisiana. High's topped out in the low 90s, but with sfc Tds only in the mid to upper 60s, it only felt like the mid 90s outside rather than the low 100s. It's still hot, especially for those outside working in the heat, but it's not a humid heat and we'll take it.

Clear conditions to continue into tonight and tomorrow with only a few clouds streaming overhead. Patchy fog can be expected once again overnight with very low expectation of dense fog conditions.
Tomorrow, expect another day with temps around 90F. Winds return to the south, and with them, moist advection, so humidity is on its way.

11/calhoun

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge across the Gulf States northeast through the Great Lakes. Winds are light from the east or variable around 6 mph or less across the area. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across our region.
Afternoon temperatures have reached the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies expected with nearly calm winds. Patchy fog likely by daybreak, but not expecting dense fog at this time.

For Monday through Tuesday night, a dry northwest flow aloft expected between the mid to upper level trough over the East Coast and a mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico/South Texas/Western Gulf of Mexico. Not expecting any precipitation, but continued above normal temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Maximum heat index values in the lower to mid 90s expected each afternoon.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

The long range continues with mainly dry, warm weather at the surface across SETX and SWLA. Large region of upper level convergence and subsidence shifts off the Carolina coast while maintaining broad ridging SW across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile upstream, the subtropical jet extends along Baja curving NE over the Ohio to merge with the upstream pattern near the Great Lakes region. A deep surface low will occlude over the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes while extending across the central / southern Plains into North Texas. The Low pressure center then fills over Eastern Canada leaving partially detached frontal boundary, becoming stationary over the southern Plains and TN Valley. This frontal boundary, which guidance continues to indicate resting above the ARKLATEX region, will serve as a focal area for any organized showers and thunderstorms through Friday morning.

Locally, chances of POPs remain too low to keep in the forecast, however, as this period comes into the short range outlook, the potential for isolated, more airmass based, thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. That said, low level subsidence will keep a cap in place that would take a robust perturbation or sea breeze to kick off any activity beyond cumulus. By Saturday, the upper level pattern becomes a little more unsettled with regards to little perturbations aloft, however, the overall zonal flow does not add much room for major changes unless guidance brings about a more organized shortwave south. Worth noting the lower troposphere begins to show more variability on the pressure pattern which may support Isolated activity, but there are no signals strong enough to put that potential in the forecast right now with confidence.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Little change from previous TAF thinking, with just some patchy fog possible mainly at the southern sites late tonight resulting in brief MVFR vsby reductions. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail with light to near calm winds tonight becoming S-SE 5-10 KT during the day.

24

MARINE

Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 70 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 71 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 72 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Sun -- 03:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM CDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:34 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM CDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:45 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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