Sunday, November29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Delcambre, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:07 PM CST (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 5:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 912 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft exercise caution in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers late in the evening, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy increasing to rough in the afternoon. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of rain showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 912 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis.. An are of low pressure will move northeastward toward the coastal waters overnight, pulling a strong cold front across the northwest gulf of mexico on Sunday...with a moderate to strong offshore flow expected in its wake for late Sunday into Monday. Winds will gradually relax while shifting to a southerly direction into the middle of the new week as high pressure passes the region before our next frontal passage ushers in around round of moderate offshore flow beginning late Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delcambre, LA
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location: 29.68, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 290331 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 931 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

UPDATE. A warm frontal system is located over the northwest Gulf just beyond the coastal waters, with a surface low just off the middle Texas coast. An upper level disturbance moving eastward over the Texas Panhandle, will phase up with a rather potent norther stream short wave overnight into Sunday. This will pull the surface low across the northwest Gulf to near the south central Louisiana coast by Sunday morning, then off to the east of forecast area Sunday afternoon.

Plenty of moisture in place with latest PWAT from KLCH upper air sounding and LAPS data over 1.5 inches, with mean relative humidity values over 80 percent. Ascent from fast southwest flow ahead of the upper level disturbance is taping into the moisture bringing shower activity to the forecast area.

Currently, rainfall is on the light side, as instability is very weak. However, as the night progresses, and approach of surface, low shower activity will increase, with the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall, especially south of the I-10 corridor. Thunderstorm activity will be limited to the warm sector, which will be mainly offshore. There is the chance of the warm sector pushing into portions of lower south central Louisiana around daybreak through noon, and if that occurs, a few strong to marginally severe storms may develop for that area.

Overall ongoing forecast is on track, and only minor adjustments to the forecast were made.

With the expectation of the strong offshore flow starting on Sunday morning over the coastal waters, close enough in time to issue a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters, which matches up with the surrounding forecast offices marine zones.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 538 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

DISCUSSION . For 11/29/2020 00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION . KPOE radar showing light to moderate rain overspreading all terminals this evening with satellite/obs indicating IFR to MVFR CIGS/VIS. This along with some temporary LIFR CIGS will more or less be the conditions expected through much of the TAF period as a lingering frontal boundary remains offshore, and energy overruns it. Low pressure forming along the deep south Texas coast will ride up this boundary overnight and into early Sunday, and associated energy may result in some periods of more moderate rain. The surface low is expected to move ashore in lower Acadiana by the early afternoon, so any instability within the warm sector may result in some VCTS. In general winds expected to prevail from the ENE, shifting more N and eventually NW as the low pushes through the region Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

50

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 340 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

DISCUSSION . Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure continue to develop over the lower Rio Grande Valley while weak high pressure resides from the OH Valley through the srn Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low spinning across the TX Panhandle with a few minor ripples ejecting out ahead of it in the wswrly flow aloft over the wrn Gulf Region. Combo of these features has led to a continued large swath of overrunning rain across the forecast area with a few embedded heavier showers this afternoon while regional 88Ds show this activity extending well wwd back into the TX Hill Country. The good news is so far today, accumulations have been fairly limited with the rainfall remaining generally on the lighter side, providing a reasonable break after yesterday's widespread 1-3 inchers (locally 5 inches around Beaumont).

Previous forecast thinking still holding up this afternoon. Mainly light rain will continue into this evening before low-level lift begins increasing with the approach of the Gulf low. Expect to see pockets of heavier rain producing higher areal QPFs during the late night time frame as the low moves into our coastal waters. Luckily the break in moderately-accumulating rainfall amounts has come so feel like we can again hold off on any Flash Flood Watch for the forecast area . however did include 'rain heavy at times' wording to account. Also expect to see a return of a few thunderstorms tonight as increasing lift taps into what little instability is available . however severe weather is not expected as of now.

As the cutoff over far wrn TX fills and ejects newd into Sunday, much drier and cooler air will rush to fill in behind the departing sfc low, bringing the precip to an end from west-to-east through the afternoon hours. In its wake, we should see gradually clearing skies and breezy conditions. Highs tomorrow should run a few degrees warmer than today's temps. For Sunday night into Monday morning, the longwave trof passage aloft will help push through a reinforcing shot of colder air which will drive temperatures down into the upper 30s/lower 40s for Sunday night . then hold temps to just the lower/mid 50s for Monday.

The main story for the week will be the extremely cold wake up temperatures on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region and allow good radiating conditions to develop. Hard freeze conditions are beginning to look more possible for the nern zones, while a freeze looks in the cards for all but the immediate coastal areas. Tuesday afternoon will remain well below normal climatologically, but with the high pushing ewd and allowing a srly flow to redevelop off the Gulf, we will see the beginnings of a warm up with a wide spread of temps expected Wednesday morning.

The approach/passage of the next storm system aloft/associated sfc front will usher rain chances back into the forecast for Wednesday. With showers first expected over sern TX, luckily temps will be well above the threshold for any concern for winter weather. Slim POPs do linger for much of the remainder of the forecast period due to solution differences in the long-range models.

MARINE . Needed to hoist SCEC headlines for the outer waters with this afternoon's CWF as erly winds become srly and increase in response to falling pressures over Deep South TX. Winds expected to shift to a nrly direction after the departure of the low and strengthen to SCA criteria for late Sunday . lingering into Monday before relaxing with the approach of high pressure.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 52 59 38 51 / 80 80 10 0 LCH 58 65 43 54 / 90 90 0 0 LFT 61 67 43 53 / 90 90 10 0 BPT 58 65 42 54 / 90 70 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. TX . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ452-455-472-475.

Small Craft Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ472- 475.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-470.

Small Craft Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ450- 470.

Small Craft Exercise Caution from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for GMZ435.



PUBLIC . 07


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 18 mi49 min NE 7 G 11
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi49 min E 7 G 9.9 65°F 65°F1017.3 hPa
EINL1 39 mi49 min NE 12 G 14 65°F 67°F1017 hPa64°F
KSCF 40 mi42 min E 18 68°F 64°F
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 40 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Abbeville Chris Crusta Memorial Airport, LA21 mi72 minN 010.00 miLight Rain63°F60°F91%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K7R4

Wind History from 7R4 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------NW5
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Cypremort Point, Louisiana
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Cypremort Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:02 AM CST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:31 AM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:58 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:06 PM CST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:43 PM CST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:56 PM CST     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.21.210.90.70.40.20.10.1-000.20.40.70.91.11.21.31.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:51 AM CST     1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:58 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:29 PM CST     1.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.41.210.70.30.1-0-00.10.30.60.91.31.51.61.61.61.51.41.41.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current



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