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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 226 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters very rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 226 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
moderate onshore winds will continue tonight through Saturday. A cold front passage Saturday night will bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to water lightning. The main marine concern will be after the frontal passage by late Saturday night into Sunday as strong north winds develop with the possibility of frequent gale force wind gusts and high seas. With the strong offshore flow, water will be push away from the coast and low- water conditions for coastal lakes and bays will be possible. Late Sunday night high pressure will build in behind the front with a decrease in winds and a lowering of the seas.

FXUS64 KLCH 090534 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1134 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 925 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Updated POP/wx grids earlier this evening based on radar trends at the time. As far as the remainder of the night goes, latest CAM guidance looks to be in general agreement with inherited grids with shower activity developing overnight, mainly across the nrn 1/2 of the forecast area.

Elsewhere inherited grids/zones were in good shape, therefore no additional updates are needed at this time.

25

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. with a strengthening 1001 mb surface low over Oklahoma moving northeast.
The tight pressure gradient across the area keeping southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph across the area this afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance moving across the area is providing some lift with the available moisture to generate isolated to scattered showers. Most of the activity over Acadiana as shown on radar. Temperatures this afternoon range in the mid 60s to mid 70s. For tonight, expect southerly winds to remain elevated, with overnight temperatures remaining nearly steady in the lower 60s Central Louisiana and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

For Saturday, a large longwave trough over the Midwest expected to deepen and move southeast across Texas and Louisiana. As the longwave trough axis deepens further and moves across the region, a strong cold front expected to move through the region Saturday night. Ahead of the trough axis, increased moisture and lift will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms by the late afternoon hours, with the best chances during the evening ahead and along the strong cold frontal passage. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across most of the area, with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) over Central Louisiana and points northward. The greatest threat of severe weather will be damaging winds, although large hail and a possible tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if any supercells develop ahead of the front in the warm sector.

Following the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday will be very strong cold air advection expected to bring much colder and drier air across the region. Expect Sunday morning lows in the 40s with highs not getting out the mid 50s Sunday afternoon.
Strong northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph across most inland locations behind the front will persist through Sunday afternoon. Likely will need a wind advisory. Winds expected to diminish rapidly by late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours as the cold surface high over Texas builds east over our region. With clear skies and nearly calm winds expected for Monday morning, lows around 28-30 north of I-10, and lower to mid 30s further south, is the best reasonable estimate at this time.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)

If I had to pick two words to describe the longterm forecast period, they'd be cool and quiet.

Much colder air arrives Sunday in the wake of a strong cold front moving through. High pressure then swiftly builds in overhead on Monday before it slides eastward on Tuesday. At this point, the high sets up over the eastern seaboard where it'll sit for the rest of the longterm period. Winds will respond to this high, becoming variable on Monday with a gradual turn to the east to southeast Tuesday through Friday. Otherwise, with high pressure dominating, expect dry weather through at least Thursday.

Moisture returns slowly towards the end of the work week, with low end rain chances entering the forecast late Thursday or Friday.

Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected over the longterm period with highs in the low to mid 60s each day. Overnight lows will start off chilly in the low 30s to low 40s Monday through Wednesday mornings. Thursday and beyond should then see improvement into the 40s with the return of moisture.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Ceilings are expected to become MVFR over the next few hrs at all terminals. Patchy IFR ceilings may also occur around sunrise before lifting and showers may develop by mid day and linger into the evening ahead of a cold front. Gusty SW winds will be gusty northwest during the evening.

MARINE

Moderate onshore winds will continue tonight through Saturday. A cold front passage Saturday night will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to water lightning. The main marine concern will be after the frontal passage by late Saturday night into Sunday as strong north winds develop with the possibility of frequent gale force wind gusts and high seas. Expanded the Gale Watch to include all 0-60nm marine zones, and high probability this will be upgraded to a Gale Warning overnight. With the strong offshore flow, water will be push away from the coast and low- water conditions for coastal lakes and bays will be possible.
Late Sunday night high pressure will build in behind the front with a decrease in winds and a lowering of the seas.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 79 41 56 / 20 70 70 0 LCH 65 77 45 56 / 20 60 70 0 LFT 64 78 48 56 / 20 50 90 0 BPT 66 78 45 58 / 20 50 50 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

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Southwest Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:42 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 PM CST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:14 PM CST     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:12 PM CST     1.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:03 AM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:00 PM CST     1.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:30 PM CST     1.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:28 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

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