Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

The short term period can be summed up in one word - wet. The surface ridge over the region will be shunted east as the TX coastal low moves northeast over the area tonight into Sunday, lifting a warm front northward during the day. Meanwhile, the shortwave west of the region will lift northeast across the TX panhandle tonight, and quickly progress toward the OH Valley Sunday. Lift associated with these features combined with ample moisture (as PWATs climb to near 1.8 inches) will provide for more widespread rain to develop across the area through Sunday.

Despite the abnormally high moisture content (peaking 2-3 standard deviations above the mean per NAEFS guidance), the overall risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding has decreased. This decreasing trend has been apparent over the past day or so in the guidance, with QPF values tapering down slightly as instability appears to be becoming more limited.
This will result in less intense rainfall rates as well as reduced QPF values. Thus, the latest Day 2 ERO has been lowered to MRGL (level 1 out of 4) across the area for Sunday. Additionally, HRRR probabilities for greater than 2 inches of rain through Monday morning have decreased considerably, around 15 percent or lower.

In the wake of this initial system, another trough digging across the central US will generate a surface low over NW TX that will pivot across the lower MS Valley on Monday. This will usher a cold front through the area Monday night, and keep elevated rain chances in place, with the best potential over the Acadiana region.

For temperatures, a strong warming trend will develop by Sunday as the warm front lifts across the region, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will not fall too far on Sunday night thanks to cloud cover and WAA pattern, with lows 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The abnormally warm conditions will continue until passage of the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.

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LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

A cool and dry airmass is expected to build into the region in the wake of the front with gusty northerly winds developing on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build into the region, translating east over the area from Wednesday into Thursday. The coldest temperatures of the period are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning when lows falling to near freezing across central LA, with middle to upper 30s expected elsewhere.

Thanks to a progressive pattern aloft, the surface will quickly shift east by the end of the week, with southerly winds allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 60s by Friday afternoon.
Another disturbance will approach the region from the west by late in the week, and this could bring a low chance of showers by the end of the week.

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AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Moist southwest flow aloft will continue to over-ride a cooler air mass at the surface during the overnight that will provide mainly light rain. A surface ridge will move off to the east during the overnight into Sunday morning and this will allow winds in the low levels to gradually become from a more southerly direction. The result will be a warm frontal feature to move through the forecast area that will lower ceilings through MVFR to IFR levels along with some visibility restriction from the patchy fog and rain. The IFR/MVFR conditions will persist into Sunday evening.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Low pressure along the Texas coast will lift toward SE TX tonight into Sunday, with easterly winds shifting southerly on Sunday.
Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected. Moderate southerly winds will then continue until passage of a cold front Monday night into Tuesday.

Drier weather and strong northwesterly flow will develop in the wake of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed during this timeframe. Winds will diminish by Thursday as high pressure moves over the region, shifting southeasterly by the end of the week as the high moves into the southeast US.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 45 67 59 75 / 50 90 90 30 LCH 48 71 63 74 / 50 90 80 50 LFT 49 73 66 75 / 50 70 90 80 BPT 51 73 62 78 / 60 70 70 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.