Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erath, LA

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Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 282344 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 644 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

For the most part a quiet and warm Sunday afternoon is ongoing across the CWA, as surface high pressure ridges across the area from the east. The only exception to this is really across the Lake Charles area where several mesoscale boundaries have been colliding over the last few hours resulting in scattered convection, decent cloud cover, and cooler temps. We currently sit in the low 70s the LCH airport, while the rest of the CWA is seeing temps in the mid to upper 80s. With only a couple of showers still ongoing this convection should die out through the next couple of hours, giving way to another quiet night with lows expected to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tomorrow, a very similar pattern is once again on tap for the Memorial Day holiday. Overall, it should be a nice and warm afternoon to enjoy some time outside, with highs expected to top out in the upper 80s to near 90. However, we may once again see a few afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two as the seabreeze moves inland and daytime heating get going.

Heading into Tuesday, we turn our attention west as an upper level shortwave slides into the western Gulf, inducing a surface low near the lower TX coast. The combination of these features will slowly track eastward through the midweek, bringing plenty of cloud cover as well as slightly better rain chances to the forecast area. Most of Tuesday's convection should be focused near the the coast and offshore, however, small POPs (~20%) extend inland across the I-10 corridor as well as further north into SE TX. Even with more cloud cover, another seasonal afternoon is on tap temperature wise for Tues with highs topping out in the upper 80s once again.

17

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

The area will begin the long term with widely scattered mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as the area lies under a bit of a weakness aloft from a passing shortwave over the Gulf, while moisture content will be on the high side (forecast soundings indicate mean RH values of 75 to 80 percent along with PWATs as high as 1.7 inches). However the lack of a good focus mechanism (best lift with the vort looks confined to the coastal waters) should preclude activity from becoming much more widespread in coverage.

For now, Thursday looks dry as the area will be under the influence of weak ridging extending nwd from the Mexican coastal plain into the cntl CONUS. As the wave over the Gulf and its sfc reflection approach the n-cntl Gulf/cntl Gulf Coast, perhaps enough lift could spread over lower Acadiana to allow for a few showers/storms with heating there.

After a dry Friday as the ridge holds, rain chances return on Saturday as the ridge breaks down with the approach of a mid-level shortwave...with the diminished capping working with daytime heating and good lingering moisture to allow for widely scattered to scattered development during the afternoon. Rain chances look a little better on Saturday as the disturbance works its way into the forecast area, enhancing lift.

Temps are progged to continue their slow rise through the long term with lows forecast to get back to seasonal norms while highs run a couple degrees above with readings in the lower 90s by the weekend.

25

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Outside of a shower affecting the BPT terminal with LIFR vsby and MVFR cig, conditions across the area are VFR. Once the shower near BPT dissipates over the next hour or so, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period amid mostly mid and high cloud cover. Similar to the past few mornings, some very patchy BR/HZ will be possible around daybreak, but is again expected to be too transient to include in TAFs. With daytime heating, some SCT high based CU (around 5000 FT or greater) will develop along with a few SHRA/TSRA. Given isolated nature of convection, will not include mention in TAFs at this time. Winds will be mostly light and variable tonight into Monday morning, becoming southerly during the day.

24

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Light to moderate E to SE winds will continue through the next few days, along with low seas. Rain chances begin to increase Mon night into Tues as an upper level disturbance is expected to move across South Texas into the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a weak surface low developing south of the area. The combination of these features will bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances diminish by Thursday as the system moves east of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 88 66 89 / 0 10 10 10 LCH 69 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 20 LFT 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 0 20 BPT 70 89 70 89 / 0 10 10 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Freshwater Canal Locks, LA

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for K7R4

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Wind History from 7R4 (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana

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