Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Erath, LA

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A few, light showers are being observed early this afternoon across parts of southeast Texas and northern Louisiana as they wrap around the northern periphery of a weak upper level ridge centered over the gulf. This ridge should limit any afternoon convection to just a couple of small and weak storms at best. At the surface, the region remains caught between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a low over the southern plains that is expected to produce severe weather over portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. The result is another day of breezy southeasterly winds. Observations thus far have indicated sustained winds between 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 30. While certainly enough to blow around unsecured objects, the sustained winds are expected to remain below wind advisory criteria.

A much wetter pattern is on the near horizon as a weak frontal boundary is expected to dig to the coast tomorrow afternoon before stalling. A series of upper level disturbances will move up the Texas gulf coast roughly along the boundary producing wave after wave of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through early next week. Unfortunately, this also includes the holiday weekend and those with outdoor plans should have an indoor alternative. Latest ensemble QPF totals generally range from 2-4 inches through the week although higher amounts are likely across areas that see training of heavier rain. WPC has the entire region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday and this will likely be extended through the weekend. The overall risk of flooding will likely increase with each successive day as soils become saturated and area waterways fill.

Jones

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Ceilings have been and will continue to improve to VFR over the next couple of hours where they will remain through the evening.
Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR once again overnight after 06Z. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the western Atlantic and a low over eastern Kansas will maintain gusty southeasterly winds of up to 30 knots through the afternoon. Winds will weaken somewhat after sunset this evening, but remain in the 10-12 knot range overnight through Tuesday morning.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Onshore winds around 20 knots will continue this afternoon and tonight maintaining seas in the 3-6 feet range. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Winds will weaken Tuesday through the end of the week. Precipitation chances increase significantly Tuesday night through next Monday as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 30 knots will continue this afternoon before diminishing this evening.
Dewpoints in the 70s will keep minimum RH values in the 60-70% range this week. A wet pattern will get underway Tuesday evening through early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472.