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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 342 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 5 knots early. Bay waters light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters very rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 342 Am Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
surface high pressure will move east of the area today with light east, then southeast winds the result. Onshore winds will increase Friday as a surface low develops over the southern plains. This low will move eastward and help push a cold front across the coastal waters late Saturday into Saturday night. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Strong and gusty offshore flow will develop in wake of the front Saturday night into Sunday with the potential for gale force gusts.

FXUS64 KLCH 071123 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 523 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A rather chilly early morning across the forecast area as surface high settling across the region has brought light winds and a dry air mass to go along with only high clouds, decent radiational cooling that has lowered temperatures into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The surface high will begin to move off to the east today and this will allow for a moderation in temperatures as low level flow starts to become more from the southeast. High temperatures will be close to seasonal readings.

Looks like an unsettled pattern to end the week and start the weekend.

A surface low will form on Friday over the Southern Plains as a sharp northern stream short wave begins to dig down into the region. This low will help to increase the gradient over the forecast area with stronger low level southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico to bring warmer temperatures and an increase in moisture. PWAT values increase to the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range with mean relative humidity values in the 100H-50H level over 70 percent. A southern stream short wave will move overhead from morning to afternoon. Lift with this system should be enough to produce scattered mainly light shower activity with rainfall amounts averaging less than 1/10 of an inch.

On Saturday, the northern stream upper level trough will continue to dig down to the south and move eastward. As it moves to the east, it will push a rather sharp cold front across the forecast area. Timing of the front looks a little later than previous guidance, with the front entering in the late afternoon and pushing through during the evening to early overnight hours.

Southerly flow ahead of the cold front will bring a warm, moist, and unstable air mass into the forecast area. PWAT values will be near of above 1.5 inches with mean layer relative humidity values over 75 percent. Lift associated with the front should get widespread shower and storm activity going.

Instability looks good as the front enters the forecast area with CAPE values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range, to go along with favorable mid level lapse rates. Environment looks to be deeply sheared with 0-6km bulk values around 50 knots. However, low level and surface flow becomes more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front. This lessens the low level shear with 0-1 helicity values on the low side.

In the set-up mentioned, there will be a strong to severe storm risk potential as line segments form ahead of the front with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns. A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) Potential exists for mainly northwest of a Lafayette to Cameron line, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5)
east of the line, as instability is expected to decrease as the line moves into lower Acadiana.

With the progressive nature of the cold front, average rainfall amounts will be between 1/4 to 1/2 inch area wide. The only hydro concern is with flow parallel to the front, some of the stronger cells with the higher rainfall rates may train a bit causing some localized heavy rainfall. For that reason WPC has outlined a portion of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
Potential for excessive rainfall, mainly east of a Toledo Bend to Lake Charles to Intracoastal City line.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

As we start the period, a cold front should be just east of the forecast area with rain ending and a brisk northwest wind bringing in a drier and cooler continental air mass that will bring a few days of below normal temperatures.

The surface high associated with this modified Canadian air mass will settle over the forecast area on Sunday night into Monday morning and this will likely be the coldest night during this episode with freezing temperatures north of the I-10 corridor. It should be noted that NBM deterministic values that were used for the low temperatures were on the high side of the whisker plots, so there is the potential for lower temperatures than what is currently forecast.

The cool and dry conditions will continue through mid week.

Rua

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Surface high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will gradually shift off to the east today and this will allow light winds to become more from the southeast during the day. Return flow off the Gulf will be weak, so do not expect any significant low level moisture to produce clouds low clouds. Moisture increasing in the southwest flow aloft will bring in high level cloudiness during the day into tonight. All this means is that VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the period.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A light east, then eventually southeast wind flow over the coastal waters will develop today as high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley moves off to the east.

The onshore flow will increase on Friday as the gradient tightens due to a surface low forming over the Southern Plains, Wind speeds may get into the 15 to 20 knot range and thus exercise caution may need to be headlined in the marine forecast, with the moderate onshore persisting into Saturday.

A cold front will move across the coastal waters on Saturday evening into the overnight. Bands of showers and storms will develop ahead of the front, with some strong storms possibly bringing very gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning.

This cold front will be rather sharp with a much cooler air mass moving in and over relatively warmer Gulf waters, to go along with a decent pressure gradient behind it. This will result in rather strong and gusty northerly winds from late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sustained winds will be in the 20 to 30 knot range that will bring about small craft advisory conditions. Gusts over 35 knots to 40 knots, especially over the outer waters, may bring about the need for a Gale Warning. Also, the strong northwest winds will push water away from the coast during the Sunday morning low tide cycle bring about the potential for low water conditions.

Winds will decrease by Sunday night into Monday as surface high settles over the region.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 44 71 60 / 0 0 30 10 LCH 65 52 72 64 / 0 10 30 10 LFT 65 51 73 63 / 0 10 20 10 BPT 68 55 73 65 / 0 10 30 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Southwest Pass
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Thu -- 01:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 AM CST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:31 PM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 PM CST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:15 PM CST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lighthouse Point
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Thu -- 01:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:27 AM CST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:47 AM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:43 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:22 PM CST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:31 PM CST     1.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

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