Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Palatka, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights through Tonight:

Drier, becoming moslty clear with cooler overnight lows trailing today's cold front passage. Through about 2-3 pm, there is about a 20-50% of a few pre-frontal showers generally along and south of St.
Augustine to Ocala, with a lone thunderstorm possible (chance < 10%)
with the greater thunderstorm chance over the adjacent Atlantic waters where instability is higher. Elsewhere, drier and breezy WNW winds funnel across the area with clearing skies and no rain chances in the forecast until later this week (Friday timeframe).

With abundant ground moisture across the area, the chance of inland fog will progressively increase this week. Tonight, boundary layer winds will remain elevated to keep fog minimal across most areas, but we could have some form across portions of inland north-central FL, generally near and south of the Interstate 10 corridor where winds will be weaker.

High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s today with seasonably cool overnight lows tonight in the low 60s to even a few upper 50s well inland to mid 60s toward the St. Johns River basin and coast under offshore westerly winds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Air Mass Prevails Across Our Area

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Inland Late on Tuesday Night

Troughing associated with the remnants of Isaias will progress offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday afternoon, allowing ridging to develop over the western Gulf and then expand towards the lower Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks by Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered along the northern Gulf coast will build eastward towards our region while gradually weakening, with a dry northwesterly flow advecting a seasonably dry air mass into our area, with PWATs remaining below 1 inch area-wide through at least Tuesday evening. Cool air advection will continue on Monday morning on the heels of a northwesterly breeze, followed by our local pressure gradient gradually loosening as high pressure builds eastward towards our area. Plenty of sunshine and a relatively dry air mass should allow highs to uniformly climb to mid 80s, which is slightly above mid-October climatology. Fair skies and light northerly winds on Monday night will result in lows generally falling to the 60-65 degree range, with a few inland locations possibly falling to the upper 50s. These values are close to mid-October climatology.

Ridging aloft will continue to build over the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with this feature expanding towards the Tennessee Valley and the rest of the southeastern states by Tuesday night.
Surface high pressure will continue to gradually weaken while relocating to the southern Appalachians by Tuesday night, resulting in our low level flow veering to northerly early on Tuesday and then northeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Rising heights aloft, sunshine and a lingering dry air mass will allow highs to nudge upwards at inland locations, where upper 80s are forecast, while an onshore breeze during the afternoon will keep coastal highs in the low to mid 80s. The lingering dry air mass will result in dewpoints falling to the upper 50s and lower 60s during the afternoon at most inland locations, keeping heat index values close to actual temperatures.
Radiational cooling at inland locations on Tuesday night will result in lows falling to the upper 50s and lower 60s, except mid 60s for north central FL. Patchy to possibly areas of fog may develop during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday given the saturated ground conditions and excellent radiational cooling. Otherwise, a light northerly breeze will keep coastal lows in the 65-70 degree range.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and warm weather Wednesday and Thursday

- Increased chances for Showers on Friday and Saturday

Dry weather conditions will continue on through midweek with chances for showers increasing on Friday and Saturday as prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the southwest ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. Surface winds are anticipated to shift to be out of the north and northeast following the frontal passage, however current models show some disparity on the timing and placement of the front at this time.
Above average temperatures will be in place for midweek with max and min temps dropping down to below average levels by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

MVFR cigs at SGJ will yield to VFR over the next 1-2 hours with prevailing VFR at all other terminals through 12z tomorrow expect for MVFR due to BR advertised at VQQ after 07z tonight. Drier air and progressively clearing skies into tonight trailing a cold front passage. Winds will continue to veer from WSW to more WNW at times through 00z with gusts of 15-20 kts. Fog and shallow low stratus potential increases this week due to very saturated ground.

MARINE

Showers and isolated storms will move across the waters through the afternoon with Small Craft conditions ahead of a cold front. Dry weather and subsiding winds and seas are expected tonight. High pressure builds west of the region Monday then north to northeast of the region mid to late week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below headline criteria.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk improves slightly to moderate today flow shifts to west-southwesterly, but some lingering longer period swells will keep risk from dropping significantly. This moderate risk is likely to continue into the start of the work week as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather is expected through at least Thursday. Westerly transport winds overnight will shift to northwesterly towards sunrise on Monday, with breezy surface and transport speeds through the early to mid afternoon hours creating good daytime dispersion values area-wide. Surface and transport winds will shift to northerly on Monday evening and then northeasterly towards sunrise on Tuesday, with breezy surface speeds expected along the northeast Florida coast on Tuesday afternoon. Lighter transport speeds across southeast Georgia will yield generally fair daytime dispersion values on Tuesday, while good values continue for inland locations in northeast and north central Florida. Surface and transport winds will shift slightly to east-northeasterly by Wednesday, with fair to good daytime dispersion values continuing at inland locations, while poor values are expected for coastal southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation is possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

River flood warnings continues for the Satilla at Atkinson which is cresting in lower-end Minor flood stage today and the St.
Marys River at Macclenny which is hovering just above Minor flood stage. The Satilla at Waycross is forecast to crest below Minor flood stage early this week.

Some tributaries of the St. Johns will remain high as heavy rainfall from last week's rainfall drains. Locations include Julington Creek, Thomas Creek, and Pottsburg Creek.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Adjusted the coastal flood advisory to focus between downtown JAX southward to Welaka and Crescent Lake areas where Minor tidal flooding is expected to continue through tomorrow. Peak high tides will gradually dampen with lowering peak amplitudes. Northerly winds return Monday and become more northeast to east toward the end of the week, with the higher water level departures continuing for locations generally south of the Shands bridge with an extended duration of Minor flooding possible for some locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 63 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 66 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-132- 137-325-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470.