Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Palatka, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:57PM Monday October 14, 2019 7:36 AM EDT (11:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201910141530;;683254 Fzus52 Kjax 140717 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 317 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-141530- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds increasing to near 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters becoming rough. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 317 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain in place over the georgia waters through Tuesday before lifting north of our region as a warm front on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a strong cold front moving eastward across the great lakes region and and plains states on Tuesday will cross our local waters on Wednesday evening. Southerly winds will strengthen to small craft advisory levels beginning Tuesday evening and will shift to southwesterly on Wednesday, with elevated seas persisting through Wednesday night over the offshore waters. Showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, followed by northwesterly winds in the wake of the front on Wednesday night that will shift to northerly by Thursday. Winds and seas will diminish by Thursday evening as high pressure builds over the carolinas.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 10, 2019 at 1200 utc... 59 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 87 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Palatka CDP, FL
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location: 29.71, -81.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 141116
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
716 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Aviation
[through 12z Tuesday]
weak stalled frontal boundary across SE ga may bring tempo MVFR
cigs to ssi briefly this morning prior to 15z, otherwiseVFR
conds expected with light winds through this afternoon. Pops at fl
taf sites too low later today and this evening to include yet.

Lower MVFR CIGS possible in the 06-12z time frame late tonight but
chances still too low to include as well.

Prev discussion [529 am edt]
Currently
Early morning surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary
along the altamaha ocmulgee rivers, while a stronger cold front
has moved through the pacific northwest and was traversing the
northern rockies. Aloft... Ridging remains centered over the
western and central gulf of mexico, while a large and slow moving
trough is now centered north of lake superior. This weather
pattern was creating a brisk and deepening westerly flow pattern
locally, with a shortwave trough embedded within this flow
crossing the southern appalachians and progressing through upstate
portions of the carolinas. Convection associated with this passing
shortwave and the stationary frontal boundary was remaining just
north of the altamaha ocmulgee rivers early this morning, with
lower stratus ceilings settling in across inland portions of
southeast georgia and patches of mid-level cloudiness drifting
across northern portions of the suwannee valley. Fair skies
prevail elsewhere. Cloudiness and low level westerly flow were
keeping temperatures around 70 for most of southeast georgia,
while decoupling winds inland have allowed temperatures to fall
into the 60s for most of northeast and north central florida.

Dewpoints as of 09z were mostly in the mid 60s.

Near term [through tonight]
The shortwave trough progressing across the carolinas will keep a
threat for widely scattered convection early this morning along
the altamaha ocmulgee rivers. Otherwise, the brisk zonal flow
pattern in place over the southeastern states will only allow the
frontal boundary to move slowly southward today before stalling
north of the fl ga border this afternoon as the next upstream
impulse moves eastward across the deep south. Dry conditions will
prevail for most of the day locally, an a weak pressure pattern
will allow the atlantic sea breeze to develop early this afternoon
and move inland past the interstate 95 corridor by the mid-
afternoon hours. This boundary should reach the stalled front near
u.S. Highway 301 in southeast georgia by late afternoon, and there
will be increasing support aloft arriving from the west,
compliments of a 120-knot jet streak emerging from the desert
southwest and spreading across the southern plains and tennessee
valley. Widely scattered convection is expected to develop by late
afternoon over western portions of the suwannee valley and across
southeast georgia, mainly from waycross southward. Cloud cover
over southeast georgia should thin by late morning, and plenty of
sunshine elsewhere will allow highs to again soar to the upper 80s
inland, with the afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal highs in
the mid 80s. Dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s today should
result in heat index values climbing to the lower 90s.

Convection should briefly dissipate this evening along the stalled
boundary before the aforementioned jet streak moving across the
tennessee valley overnight increases diffluence over southeast
georgia, resulting in strengthening isentropic lift north of the
frontal boundary late tonight. Scattered showers should develop
across the western suwannee valley and inland southeast georgia
after midnight, with steadier rainfall developing near the
altamaha ocmulgee rivers by sunrise, where categorical pops were
placed in the forecast grids. Increasing cloudiness and light
south-southwest low level winds will keep lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s area-wide.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
A potent shortwave trough will dive southeastward from the dakotas
on Monday night through the upper midwest by Tuesday evening. This
feature will drive a strong cold front through the great lakes,
the mid-mississippi valley and the southern plains states by
Tuesday evening. The intense jet streak progressing across the
tennessee and ohio valleys Tuesday will keep strongly diffluent
flow in place across southeast georgia, and strengthening
southwesterly mid-level flow should advect deeper moisture (pwats
around 2 inches) into the northern suwannee valley and across
southeast georgia. Categorical pops were used on Tuesday and
Tuesday night for locations north of waycross, where strong
isentropic lift should create waves of heavy showers and a few
elevated thunderstorms. Beneficial rainfall in excess of 1 inch
will be possible from around alma northward on Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and this rainfall will keep highs in the mid 70s. Widely
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the front, with
only isolated coverage forecast for north central florida, where
highs will again reach the upper 80s. Low to mid 80s are expected
elsewhere, with the atlantic sea breeze developing along the
northeast florida coast by the mid afternoon hours.

Southerly low level flow will develop amd quickly strengthen ahead
of a strong cold front that will be entering the southeastern
states by late Tuesday night, which will lift the stalled boundary
across southeast georgia northward as a warm front overnight.

Scattered convection may develop over the northeast gulf of mexico
towards the predawn hours on Wednesday, with this activity
possibly moving into western portions of the suwannee valley
towards sunrise. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue
near the altamaha ocmulgee rivers overnight along the retreating
warm front. Lows will only fall to the low to mid 70s.

The potent shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the great
lakes region and will then become negatively titled on Thursday
over new england. This system will drive a strong cold front
through our region on Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing
scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with it.

Highs will again reach the mid to upper 80s ahead of this front on
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts through midweek will be above 1 inch
from waycross northward, with locally higher amounts expected.

Rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half inch will be common
elsewhere. Convection will shift offshore before midnight on
Thursday, with a cooler and drier air mass filtering into our
region as high pressure builds into the tennessee valley, with a
northwesterly breeze on Thursday morning making lows in the low to
mid 50s throughout inland southeast georgia feel even cooler.

Lows elsewhere will range from the upper 50s to near 60 for inland
locations and coastal southeast georgia, with mid to upper 60s
for coastal northeast and north central florida.

Long term [Thursday through Sunday night]
A seasonably cool and dry air mass will prevail over our region
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds eastward from
the southern plains states into the tennessee valley. We will
finally experience high temperatures that are close to mid-
october climatology, as highs on Thursday will only reach the mid
to upper 70s, except lower 80s in north central florida. Lows
Thursday night will fall to near 50 across much of inland
southeast georgia, with low to mid 50s for inland northeast
florida, ranging to the lower 60s at coastal locations.

High pressure will reach the carolina coast by late Friday, with
low level flow becoming onshore locally. Long-term models begin to
diverge late this week with regards to the weather pattern across
the deep south and the gulf of mexico, as the 00z operational gfs
brings a potent shortwave trough across the i-10 corridor, while
the 00z operational ECMWF depicts a weaker shortwave crossing the
southeastern gulf of mexico and the florida peninsula by late
Friday. We placed isolated to widely scattered showers in the
extended forecast grids for locations south of i-10 on Friday and
Friday night, with scattered coverage south of the fl ga border on
Saturday. Highs will climb to near 80 on Friday, with low to mid
80s possible by Saturday as southeasterly flow strengthens. Lows
will fall to the mid 50s Friday night for inland southeast
georgia, ranging to the upper 60s at coastal locations. Deeper
onshore flow on Saturday night will keep lows in the 60s inland
and around 70 at the coast. Low pressure then potentially takes
shape over the western gulf of mexico later this weekend, with
rain chances potentially increasing locally depending on how this
system evolves.

Marine
A lingering long period northeasterly ocean swell will keep seas
elevated in the 3-5 foot range offshore today and tonight.

Otherwise, a stalled frontal boundary will remain in place over
the georgia waters through Tuesday before lifting north of our
region as a warm front on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a strong cold
front moving eastward across the great lakes region and and plains
states on Tuesday will cross our local waters on Wednesday
evening. Southerly winds will strengthen to small craft advisory
levels beginning Tuesday evening and will shift to southwesterly
on Wednesday, with elevated seas persisting through Wednesday
night over the offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the frontal passage, followed by northwesterly winds in
the wake of the front on Wednesday night that will shift to
northerly by Thursday. Winds and seas will diminish by Thursday
evening as high pressure builds over the carolinas.

Rip currents: a long period northeasterly ocean swell will result
in a high-end moderate rip current risk today for all area
beaches. This swell will be slow to subside early this week,
keeping a moderate risk in place for at least the northeast
florida beaches on Tuesday.

Coastal flooding: elevated water levels continue within the st. Johns
river basin, especially for locations south of jacksonville. A
coastal flood advisory was continued through tonight's high tide
cycle for putnam county, where levels about 1 foot above
predicted tides may result in minor flooding during times of high
tide. Elevated water levels will continue elsewhere along the
intracoastal waterway in northeast florida, where levels about one
half foot above predicted tide levels will result in mostly
nuisance type flooding during times of high tide.

Fire weather
Light surface and transport winds today for locations south of
interstate 10 will result in low daytime dispersion values. Light
surface and transport winds, cloudy skies and widespread rainfall
will result in low daytime dispersion values on Tuesday for
locations north of interstate 10. Breezy west-southwesterly
surface and transport winds are expected ahead of an approaching
cold front on Wednesday, which will bring widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms to most of our region through Wednesday
evening.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 88 69 76 70 83 30 60 90 80 60
ssi 84 71 78 73 85 40 50 60 60 60
jax 88 70 82 72 87 30 20 40 40 60
sgj 85 71 83 74 87 10 20 20 30 50
gnv 89 69 86 72 85 10 10 30 30 60
ocf 89 69 87 72 86 10 10 20 30 60

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for putnam.

Ga... None.

Am... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 21 mi111 min SW 1.9 68°F 1018 hPa67°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 21 mi36 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 79°F1018.1 hPa (+1.1)
41117 35 mi36 min 80°F3 ft
BLIF1 47 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 1019.2 hPa73°F
DMSF1 47 mi48 min 79°F
LTJF1 47 mi48 min 72°F
NFDF1 48 mi48 min Calm G 1 67°F 1019.7 hPa
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 49 mi48 min W 4.1 G 5.1 1018.4 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL24 mi40 minWNW 310.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4--S4SE6SE10E9SE9SE11SE13SE10SE9SE7SE7SE6S5S6S4SW4SW4SW3SW3SW3W4NW3
1 day agoNW5NW4NW4N7NE6CalmE10E10E11E10E9E10E10SE9SE10SE9SE9S6SW4SW3S4SW3SW3Calm
2 days agoNE12NE11NE8NE9N10NE10N11NE10NE12NE12
G18
NE10NE7NE6NE6N3CalmCalmCalmW3NW4CalmNW3NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Palatka, St. Johns River, Florida
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Palatka
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Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT     3.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:30 PM EDT     3.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.24.64.84.94.94.74.44.243.93.93.94.24.54.8554.94.64.343.93.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River at Racy Point, Florida
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St. Johns River at Racy Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:41 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.50.60.70.50.30-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.300.30.50.70.80.70.50.30.20-0.1-0.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.