Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Palatka, FL

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Seasonably warm conditions will persist through the short-term period, supporting daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms, especially across interior SE GA.

On Thursday, isolated showers may first develop early in the afternoon near a residual surface trough and leftover boundaries from Wednesday's convective episode. Convective coverage is expected to increase west of Waycross late in the day and into the evening as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes merge and interact with outflow boundaries pushed out by storms in SW GA. Isolated storms could become strong with additional lift offered by an incoming shortwave.
Meanwhile, convection over NE FL will likely remain limited due to a lack of mid-level moisture. The upper-level impulse crossing Georgia Thursday evening may sustain isolated shower activity through the late night hours across SE GA, although most areas will remain dry.

On Friday, forecast uncertainty increases regarding moisture placement aloft and thus convective coverage. Model guidance trends toward marginal moisture remaining in southeast Georgia, with only isolated storms expected north of Waycross. Northeast Florida will remain drier, with lower rain chances.

By Saturday, moisture availability will still be limited, but isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may develop—mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor as the sea breeze progresses inland. A weakening frontal boundary approaching the region late Saturday night may provide additional forcing for showers and storms, potentially into early Sunday morning.

Temperatures will continue to climb, with highs nearing daily record values—reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday afternoon.
Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the low to mid-60s.
Patchy inland fog is possible each morning where skies clear overnight.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A backdoor cold front associated with high pressure wedging down the Eastern Seaboard will slide into the region on Sunday, helping to pool moisture along the boundary and fueling scattered afternoon storms along the east coast sea breeze.

By Monday, lingering moisture will maintain isolated to scattered storm chances (20–30%) across the area. A drying trend will then take shape on Tuesday as cooler and drier air advects in from the Atlantic behind the departing front.

Temperatures will moderate behind the front, with inland highs falling into the low to mid-80s and coastal areas remaining in the upper 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MVFR fog developing after 07-08Z at VQQ and GNV with restrictions for IFR fog at GNV 08Z-11Z. VFR conditions will prevail after 12Z as the region will be between weak high pressure in the Atlantic and a stalled cold front to the north. Strong heating and weak pressure pattern will allow the Atlantic seabreeze to move onshore by midday and through the duval TAF sites through the early afternoon before encountering Gulf coast seabreeze just west of GNV.

Isolated to scattered T'storms will remain northwest of the sites this afternoon where additional lift, moisture across GA and instability from a disturbance aloft combine, but probability much too low near KSSI for any VCSH or VCTS. Strongest winds along SSI/SGJ 10-12 knots and 8-10 knots inland this afternoon behind seabreeze passage turning winds easterly. A few debris clouds may drift over SSI to end the period with winds diminishing to 5-8 knots from the southeast.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MVFR fog developing after 07-08Z at VQQ and GNV with restrictions for IFR fog at GNV 08Z-11Z. VFR conditions will prevail after 12Z as the region will be between weak high pressure in the Atlantic and a stalled cold front to the north. Strong heating and weak pressure pattern will allow the Atlantic seabreeze to move onshore by midday and through the duval TAF sites through the early afternoon before encountering Gulf coast seabreeze just west of GNV.

Isolated to scattered T'storms will remain northwest of the sites this afternoon where additional lift, moisture across GA and instability from a disturbance aloft combine, but probability much too low near KSSI for any VCSH or VCTS. Strongest winds along SSI/SGJ 10-12 knots and 8-10 knots inland this afternoon behind seabreeze passage turning winds easterly. A few debris clouds may drift over SSI to end the period with winds diminishing to 5-8 knots from the southeast.

MARINE
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Atlantic high pressure will remain to the northeast of the waters through the remainder of the week into Saturday with breezy south to southeast winds as daily seabreeze circulations develop each afternoon over the near shore waters. Sunday, a backdoor cold front will sink south across the waters from the north and shift south of the waters Monday with elevated northeast to east winds and building seas.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia beaches today and Thursday due to the onshore winds and surf 2-3 feet. Stronger rip currents can form near piers and jetties. Always swim near a lifeguard.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Seasonably warm conditions will continue through the week, promoting daily inland progression of the Atlantic sea breeze. Isolated thunderstorms across southeast Georgia may produce strong, erratic outflow winds this afternoon. This general pattern continues through the end of week, with more limited thunderstorm potential Thursday and Friday. Dispersion values will be fair today, with locally high dispersion possible Thursday and Friday, especially across the Ocala National Forest due to increasing transport winds.

CLIMATE
Issued at 322 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

WED THU FRI

JAX 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV 92 (1970) 94 (1999) 93 (1896)

AMG 94 (1968) 93 (1999) 91 (1958)

CRG 89 (2020) 92 (1999) 91 (2006)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 63 85 61 / 50 30 40 10 SSI 80 68 80 68 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 87 64 84 63 / 10 10 10 0 SGJ 82 66 81 66 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 90 63 89 61 / 10 10 10 0 OCF 91 63 89 61 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.