Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM   Moonset 2:41 AM

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AMZ454 Expires:202405191000;;438671 Fzus52 Kjax 181917 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 317 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-191000- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 317 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Tonight - South winds around 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.Monday night and Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday through Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 317 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis -
a slow moving cold front will push across the coastal waters through Sunday, with chances for Thunderstorms into this evening and on Sunday. Some of these storms may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Winds will turn to the north and strengthen late Sunday night and Monday morning as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 181911 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE REST OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST FL...

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Numerous showers and storms expected into rest of the afternoon and early evening along and ahead of a weak cool front. The main area of concern for heavy rainfall and potentially severe storms, given the favorable wind fields, is over the central and southeast parts of the area where the airmass has generally been untapped thus far. There appears to be a couple of limiting factors to more robust storm activity, which are frontal forcing closely paralleled to mid to upper level flow and somewhat weak lapse rates aloft. The low level convergence also is not particularly impressive, except where outflow propagates more due to southward.
Still, given the effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and more than ample MLCAPE of about 2500 J/kg, a few briefly severe storms are possible. The main threat is strong to severe wind gusts, and lower probability of isolated large hail and possibly a brief tornado.

By the evening hours, scattered shower activity and a couple storms anticipated for southeast GA but scattered to numerous showers and possibly scattered storms expected over northeast FL.
Generally anticipate any severe threat is limited and low probability by mid evening with perhaps the stronger storms over the coastal waters. After midnight, chance of showers and slight chances of storms will persist as the remaining low level moisture and shortwave forcing aloft is enough to maintain chances of further convection. Min temps will be muggy in the upper 60s to lower 70s with southwest winds of 5-10 mph.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A cold front will be draped along the southern counties of NE FL on Sunday, with showers and storm chances remaining across the area as another cold front moves in from the north as an upper level trough begins to shift off towards the Atlantic. Most of NE FL is currently under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Severe Storms on Sunday. Current models are suggesting CAPE values from 1500-2500 J/KG, this along with westerly shear will keep the potential for scattered storms developing mainly along the stalled cold front in NE FL. Main concerns for any storms that do develop will be strong winds, small hail, and low chances for tornadoes.
By the evening, activity will begin to dwindle during the overnight hours.

High pressure moving into the area from the north-northeast will bring northeasterly winds into the area on Monday. Some showers and isolated storms may develop as the sea breeze moves inland through the afternoon, waning by the evening.

Daytime highs on Sunday will primarily rest in the mid 80s in SE GA with warmer temperatures in the upper 80s for NE FL, but cooler temperatures along north central Florida counties. By Monday, most locations will see temperatures get to the mid 80s, as the hot spots will be along the north central Florida counties.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

High pressure dominating the area will keep the area mostly dry for most of the upcoming week, save for some showers possibly developing along the north central Florida counties during the afternoon on Tuesday. The next chance of showers and storms looks to be on Friday afternoon as the high pressure will begin to shift off towards the Atlantic. With the high pressure over the area during the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will rise to the low 90s by midweek and eventually near the mid 90s in some locations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

TAFs are generally on track with showers and storms affecting the terminals today. Storms have moved through SSI and some lingering showers will be possible there rest of the afternoon, with northeast FL TAFs expected to see convection so have VCTS and TEMPO groups into the evening hours. The primary times for TSRA is from now through about 22z, with gusty winds around 30-40 kt and briefly lower visibility. Still a risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight but for now carrying VCSH for the overnight hours. Sunday, a risk of some showers and possibly a thunderstorm toward the end of the TAF period.

Prevailing west to southwest winds 8-12 knots and becoming lighter and southerly by midnight. Mainly westerly flow for Sunday at about 10 kt.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Breezy south winds this evening will turn to the southwest overnight.
West and southwest winds on Sunday before frontal boundary moves north to south, which brings winds around to the north to northeast Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday. At this time, max winds behind the cool front reach to 15-20 kt early Monday and does not appear to be likely meeting small craft advisory conditions. However, additional model guidance does suggest northerly winds may reach advisory levels for the GA waters for at least a few hours during the day on Monday. Stay Tuned! Winds will let up Tuesday night and certainly on Wednesday as high pressure ridge builds over the area, and the low pressure over the west Atlantic moves weakens.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Sunday. Risk goes up Monday and certainly Tuesday given the winds becoming more onshore and building surf.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 86 66 84 / 40 70 10 10 SSI 70 86 70 79 / 70 70 30 10 JAX 69 90 69 82 / 70 70 30 30 SGJ 70 89 71 81 / 70 60 40 30 GNV 68 87 68 85 / 70 60 10 50 OCF 72 87 69 87 / 70 70 20 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Palatka
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Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EDT     3.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:38 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     3.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Palatka, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River at Racy Point
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Sat -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River at Racy Point, Florida, Tide feet

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