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GMZ752 Expires:202312080630;;085780 Fzus52 Ktae 080220 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 920 pm est Thu dec 7 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-080630- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 920 pm est Thu dec 7 2023 /820 pm cst Thu dec 7 2023/
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers. A chance of showers late.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 920 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
easterly winds near 10 knots are being reported by offshore buoys this evening with apparent virga noted on radar. However, the airmass may moisten enough overnight to support light showers. On Sunday morning, southerly winds will increase to strong breezes by the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will be possible all day with frequent lightning as well as gusty and erratic winds within and near these storms. Following the passage of the cold front, a fresh breeze out of the northwest will last through the afternoon on Monday, clocking to northerly and gradually becoming moderate as the week continues.

FXUS62 KTAE 080234 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 934 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 921 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The main changes to tonight's forecast were slightly nudging down min temperatures and modestly increasing rain chances from our SW Gulf waters towards the immediate coast. Evening satellite and surface observations show more cloudiness compared to this time, yesterday despite surface high pressure in place with widespread temperatures well into the 40s already.

Light to calm winds should make for another good radiational cooling night, but thicker mid to upper cloud cover may inhibit progress. Nudged some MOS guidance to account for a potentially colder outcome. Meanwhile, light reflectivity returns are apparent on radar offshore, though it is likely virga given how dry the airmass is currently (~0.5-0.7" PW) and the RAP13 sounding at ECP showing a robust dry layer from 850-500 mb. The air column appears to moisten some overnight, so leaned on the NAMDNG to raise PoPs a touch.

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A slightly warmer day looks to be on deck for tomorrow, with lows warming into the upper-30s to low-40s and highs warming in the mid- 60s to low-70s areawide. Cloud cover looks to gradually increase throughout the day, peaking near the end of the day on Friday.
Additionally, some intermittent rain chances are possible for the Panhandle and coastal regions starting during the late afternoon hours, beginning the well-advertised rain chances that will continue through the rest of the weekend. However, some uncertainty exists between several models regarding the extent of inland rain chances later in the day on Friday, but general agreement exists that the best moisture axis and convergence should set up near or west of our Panhandle counties and over the western coastal waters. As such, rain chances were kept the highest over those regions, with lower rain chances further inland. In any case, any rainfall that comes later in the day on Friday should be isolated, with the bulk of precipitation falling over the Gulf.

SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A broad upper trough is forecast to deepen as it dips down into the southern plains. An upper ridge over the Caribbean will slowly erode as the aforementioned trough approaches with various shortwave perturbations riding up the northwest side of the ridge. In response, the low/mid-level jet will strengthen over our waters and western FL Panhandle. At the surface, high pressure over the southeast will slide off the east coast with surface winds clocking to southeasterly with return flow increasing dewpoints along the coastline into the 60s on Friday night, then increasing inland into the mid to upper 60s areawide.

Some showers are expected to spark over our waters and move inland over our western FL Panhandle counties Friday evening. They are expected to remain sub severe given dewpoints less than 60 inland off the immediate coastline. However, rumbles of thunder may be heard off the coast as higher dewpoints and greater instability will be confined to our waters. A stronger storm or two could form over our waters as bulk shear values increase to around 30-40kts in response to the strengthening low-level jet, though this remains uncertain given marginal thermodynamics despite a somewhat favorable kinematic environment.

On Saturday evening, a surface low will spin up near the MS Valley and occlude toward the Great Lakes with its cold front extending down through the southeast. The cold front will be well to our west through the short term forecast with the main forcing slightly displaced behind the cold front. However, diffluence ahead of the trough may provide enough ascent where showers and occasional thunderstorms could form through the evening hours into Sunday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The upper trough is expected to catch up to the cold front, increasing ascent along it resulting in greater storm coverage and perhaps intensity as it reaches the area. Instability has trended slightly higher inland, generally around 250-750J/kg with higher end values in our FL counties. Bulk shear remains around 40-50kts with shear vectors parallel to the cold front indicative of a more linear or messy storm mode impacting the area Sunday with severe possible.

With the aforementioned bulk shear values and instability, these storms should remain surface based as they traverse through the CWA.
The LLJ will increase to 40-50kts in response to the upper trough deepening predominately out of the WSW. This will serve to increase the damaging wind threat, as well as increasing 0-3km shear. In addition, surface winds out of the SSE will result in greater low- level hodograph curvature with SRH values around 200-250m2s2, indicating that a couple brief spin-up tornadoes aren't entirely out of the question. Instability remains in question, though higher shear values could compensate for it if the storms remain surface based.

With respect to heavy rainfall, this system will be quite dynamic in nature and move through the area quickly. PWATs ranging from 1.5- 1.8" will be in place, which is around the 90th percentile for our area, though 0.5-2" of rain is forecast across the CWA. Locally heavy rain appears possible and the Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (1/4) Saturday in SE AL and the FL Panhandle and Sunday for the entire CWA.

Following Sunday, benign conditions are expected through the remainder of the long term forecast. Northwest flow will prevail at the surface following the cold front with cold dry continental air spilling into the area. High temperatures will be in the 50-60s each day. Sunday and Monday night will drop into the 30s with overnight lows gradually warming Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The air mass is currently dry and stable, but moistening will occur over the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure is currently moving off to the east, so southeast and southerly low-level flow will gradually increase. SCT-BKN clouds will initially arrive at all terminals except VLD late tonight with bases in the 030-050 range. Later Friday afternoon, a few low-topped showers may try to make their way in from the Gulf across the ECP terminal. In summary, VFR conditions will prevail, but clouds in the 030-050 range will start increasing late tonight, and a few showers are possible near the Panhandle coast on Friday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 921 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Easterly winds near 10 knots are being reported by offshore buoys this evening with apparent virga noted on radar. However, the airmass may moisten enough overnight to support light showers. On Sunday morning, southerly winds will increase to strong breezes by the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms will be possible all day with frequent lightning as well as gusty and erratic winds within and near these storms. Following the passage of the cold front, a fresh breeze out of the northwest will last through the afternoon on Monday, clocking to northerly and gradually becoming moderate as the week continues.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

The only fire weather concerns through the weekend will be low dispersions on Friday afternoon. With increasing moisture, and high chances for wetting rains over the weekend, fire weather concerns will remain low. The greatest chance for a wetting rain will likely be Sunday afternoon as the main cold front pushes through, but wetting rains are possible on Saturday across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama ahead of the cold front.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Minor flooding continues along the Aucilla River at Lamont, though it is expected to continue decreasing and reach action stage this evening.

A cold front is expected to impact the area Saturday through Sunday with 0.5-2" expected areawide. Given the fast nature of this system, flooding concerns remain low at this time. However, localized heavy rain remains possible which may result in localized flooding along roadways and in metropolitan areas. However, some of our rivers remaining in action stage could break back into minor flooding though specific locations that may be impacted remain uncertain at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 40 66 56 75 / 0 10 20 30 Panama City 49 67 59 73 / 10 30 40 60 Dothan 40 64 54 73 / 0 10 30 60 Albany 38 65 53 74 / 0 10 20 40 Valdosta 39 67 55 77 / 10 10 10 20 Cross City 42 72 57 79 / 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 52 67 62 71 / 20 30 30 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Apalachicola
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:04 PM EST     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apalachicola, Apalachicola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

St. George Island
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Thu -- 02:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:35 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:11 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:38 PM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. George Island, Sikes Cut, Florida, Tide feet

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