Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apalachicola, FL

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Cooler than normal weather continues through the middle of the week thanks to a 1035 mb surface high over the Ohio Valley. A few mid to high level clouds will stream through the region and help to keep temperatures a tad warmer at night and a touch cooler during the day. Overnight lows will generally bottom out in the middle to upper 30s both nights with daytime highs in the middle to upper 50s Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

An H5 shortwave diving out of the northern plains and through the Deep South will help spawn a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. As of now, the track of the surface low is far enough south to keep the bulk of the rain offshore, but a 10 to 20 percent chance for a few light showers is in the forecast for our Florida counties.

Another system approaches this weekend and has the potential to be quite the rainmaker for portions of the southeast. An H5 low over northern Baja ejects as a shortwave into the Southern Plains and over the Southeast Friday into Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft pulls in a fair amount of Pacific moisture with precipitable water values (PWATs) of 1.3" to 1.8", or near or exceeding the 90th percentile for mid-January. Couple that with the shortwave getting absorbed into a broader trough diving out of Canada, which would cause the front to slow down significantly, and there is the potential for quite a bit of rain. Latest ensembles highlight a 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding 2" of rain across most of the region and a less than 10% chance of exceeding 3" across southeastern Alabama this weekend. Needless to say, this weekend is a time period we'll watch for the potential for flash flooding.

Temperatures are forecast to surge back into the 60s for highs Friday and the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday thanks to winds out of the south ahead of this weekend's cold front. Overnight lows follow a similar uptrend with lows in the 40s Friday night and the 50s Saturday night. The warm spell won't last long much colder weather oozes on in Sunday into Sunday night. How fast that cooler air will dictate just how cold we get near the end of the forecast period, so confidence remains rather low with regards to temperatures later this weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Precipitation is ending from west to east with IFR cigs remaining across most of the terminals along with some fog at DHN. A slow return to VFR is expected this evening into early tonight as cigs lift and skies gradually clear. Fog at DHN should lift late this afternoon. Additional fog is possible tonight at most terminals, with the highest confidence at ABY and DHN, where it's included in the TAF. Northerly winds through the period around 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

A Gulf low moving through the offshore waters today will continue advisory-level conditions for small craft into early Tuesday afternoon, with seas peaking from 5 to 8 feet through tonight for the waters west of the Ochlockonee River. Elevated northeast winds will continue into Wednesday with caution in order for small craft that venture out. More tranquil boating conditions should commence by Thursday as high pressure briefly settles over the waters. The approach of another storm system is expected to lead to freshening breezes and increasing seas again by next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Mixing heights gradually increase each afternoon as a drier airmass settles into the region. Transport winds will be northerly at around 10-15 mph during the day on Tuesday, and closer to 10 mph on Wednesday. Dispersions will be fair during the afternoon hours for Tuesday. They will be poor but above 20 units on Wednesday because of the lower transport wind speeds. Heading into Thursday, there's a slight chance for rain along the Forgotten Coast and the SE Big Bend where dispersions will be low. For our SE AL and SW GA districts, dispersions will be fair to moderate in the afternoon. Due to the rain that occurred on Monday, there may be light patchy fog across all districts except the immediate coast on Tuesday morning. Frost is also likely for districts along and north of I-10 on Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

This morning's rain event over-performed across Florida with several stations reporting 1.5" to 2.5" with a few spots picking up nearly 3" of rain. Rainfall totals of generally 0.5" to 1.0" were experienced elsewhere for all but our most northeastern Georgia. Fortunately, we have been quite dry as of late, so flash flooding nor river flooding is anticipated.

Another weak area of low pressure sweeps through the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday and may give our Florida communities another small dose of rain. Another cold front is poised to swing into the southeast this weekend. Ample moisture ahead of the front means there is a low chance (less than 10%) of much of the region exceeding 2" of rain. We'll keep monitoring the trends through the week for any flash flood potential.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 36 55 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 37 56 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 31 53 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 30 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 34 56 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 37 59 37 59 / 20 0 0 0 Apalachicola 39 56 42 57 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.