Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Apalachicola, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 4:44PM Friday December 13, 2019 7:21 AM CST (13:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 8:43AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:201912132015;;275411 Fzus52 Ktae 130753 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 253 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-132015- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 253 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019 /153 Am Cst Fri Dec 13 2019/
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest late. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 253 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis.. There is an increasing potential for a squall line of Thunderstorms to race across the coastal waters this evening into the overnight hours with brief, gale force wind gusts and water spouts possible. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain elevated through much of the period. The next chance for advisory level conditions will be late Tuesday through at least Wednesday with the passage of another cold front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apalachicola, FL
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location: 29.71, -84.98     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 131130 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

Degraded flt conds featuring IFR and below will continue this period as isentropic lift north of a warm front remains over the area. Off and on showers continue to move through the area but a period of dry conditions appears possible late this morning and afternoon. A stronger wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening and overnight; stronger storms are possible across the FL Big Bend counties and extreme southwest GA.

PREV DISCUSSION [530 AM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Today].

Scattered showers associated with isentropic lift north of a warm frontal boundary in the northern Gulf will continue through the overnight hours. One area of showers is moving into central GA while another area is developing in the northern Gulf. Although there will be a period of dry weather overnight, more rain is on the way.

The next batch is progged to develop closer to the predawn hours and overspread the area with showers for the morning commute. That batch will move northeast with time with another period of drier conditions from west to east later this morning into the mid afternoon hours.

The main trough, and developing low pressure off the Louisiana coast, will spark another round of showers and thunderstorms to begin affecting our western zone mid/late afternoon. Little instability is expected with this final round of convection in our AL counties but cant rule out isolated thunderstorm development especially near the coast. Further east, the warm front will move ashore with mid/upper 60s dewpoints surging north into the FL Big Bend and southwest GA. There is a greater chance for some severe weather here but likely it holds off till tonight.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday].

Increasing potential for severe weather tonight southeast of I-10 and the Flint River with damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible. The greatest threat is from Valdosta to Apalachicola and points southeast. The degree of the threat and areal extent will be dependent on the northward progress of a warm front and the development of surface based instability during the overnight hours, both of which are uncertain. Timing-wise, between 7 PM CT and 3 AM ET, but expect further adjustments as we draw closer.

A stout shortwave will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it traverses the area tonight, aided by an anomalous ~100 knot upper level jet, the placement of which favors large scale ascent over the region. In conjunction with a pre-frontal trough, which will pool moisture and instability, this should be sufficient to develop a squall line/Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) that will race across the area tonight. The timing of this line is uncertain. It may arrive in western areas as early as 7 PM CT and exit eastern areas as late as 3 AM ET. In addition, we'll have to see if any discrete cells can initiate out ahead of it.

The warm sector has the potential to reach the I-10 corridor and Flint River, so areas to the southeast of here have the greatest potential for severe weather. In particular, from a Valdosta to Apalachicola line and southeast, where SPC has introduced a slight risk. If surface based instability can be realized tonight, the following hazards are possible, especially across the slight risk area:

Damaging wind gusts given decreasing Convective Inhibition (CIN), an increasingly strong wind field, and downdrafts aided by drier air advecting in aloft. Closer to the northward translating warm front, a couple tornadoes are possible, given the low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) and clockwise hodographs with Bulk Shear (0-1 km) up to 30 knots. In particular, bowing segments along the QLCS that can align more favorably with the shear vector (0-1 km), as well as any discrete cells out ahead of it, would have an enhanced tornado threat. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out given the wind profile and thermodynamics, as indicated by elevated SHIP profiles on model soundings.

As mentioned previously, the degree of the threat and areal extent will be dependent on the warm front and surface based instability, both of which are uncertain.

Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday: A drying trend takes hold on Saturday, with any showers exiting during the morning, then followed by decreasing cloudiness. Dry weather continues Sunday. High temperatures both days near normal levels.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday].

Rain and strong thunderstorms centered on Tuesday, and cold lows by Thursday morning are the primary weather concerns.

There is decent model agreement for another cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Cannot rule out some strong thunderstorms, but with the displacement of stronger lift to the north and deeper moisture/ instability to the south, the severe weather threat is limited at this time. A much colder air mass will settle over the area by Thursday morning, with the potential for low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s away from the Gulf coast.

MARINE.

There is an increasing potential for a squall line of thunderstorms to race across the coastal waters this evening into the overnight hours with brief, gale force wind gusts and water spouts possible.

Otherwise, winds and seas will remain elevated through much of the period. The next chance for advisory level conditions will be late Tuesday through at least Wednesday with the passage of another cold front.

FIRE WEATHER.

Low mixing heights and lighter winds will lead to very low dispersions today. As a frontal system moves through tonight, dispersions will increase for Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous fire weather conditions are expected.

HYDROLOGY.

Additional rainfall up to one inch through tonight is expected, especially northwest of the Flint River and coastal areas, where localized amounts could approach two inches. The next chance for precipitation will be centered on late Monday into early Wednesday, with amounts up to one inch possible. There is some uncertainty with this system in terms of timing and intensity, so higher amounts are certainly possible. Despite a wetter pattern, these modest amounts are not expected to lead to any flooding concerns over the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 70 53 69 44 71 / 80 80 10 0 0 Panama City 71 54 67 49 71 / 80 70 10 0 0 Dothan 63 49 64 41 67 / 80 70 10 0 0 Albany 62 50 64 42 67 / 90 80 10 0 0 Valdosta 67 55 66 43 69 / 90 80 10 0 0 Cross City 73 57 70 46 71 / 70 70 20 0 0 Apalachicola 71 55 67 49 68 / 80 80 10 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Scholl SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . Scholl MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . Scholl HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 1 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 12 59°F 60°F1015.4 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 8 mi97 min E 7 1017 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 22 mi22 min SE 17 G 19 67°F 1014.4 hPa (-1.3)66°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 44 mi88 min NNE 6 G 8.9 55°F 1015.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi52 min N 6 G 7 62°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL3 mi29 minNE 44.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F93%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAAF

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Apalachicola, Apalachicola Bay, Florida
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Apalachicola
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:31 AM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:58 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EST     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:23 PM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.41.51.51.41.10.70.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.30.10.50.81.11.31.31.31.21.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for St. George Island, 12th St. W (Bayside), St. George Sound, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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