Oak Island, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Island, TX

June 15, 2024 5:28 AM CDT (10:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 1:39 PM   Moonset 1:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 438 Am Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to southeast late. Bay waters smooth, rising to smooth to slightly choppy late.

Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.

Sunday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Hazy.

Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.


GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 438 Am Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to moderate east to southeast winds and low seas are expected through the rest of the weekend. By Monday, southeast winds and seas will begin to gradually build as a broad area of low pressure materializes over the western and southwestern gulf of mexico. The national hurricane center estimates that the system has a 50 percent chance of development by the middle of next week. Regardless of development, the system will bring a good chance of rain and Thunderstorms along with strong winds and elevated seas. Small craft advisory level conditions are likely through much of the upcoming week. Gale conditions cannot be ruled out.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Island, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 150917 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 417 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and hazardous seas are a concern this upcoming week due to a broad area of low pressure that is expected to slowly organize over the west / southwest Gulf of Mexico. As of 2AM CDT, the National Hurricane Center is giving the potential system as 50% chance of development by the middle of the week. The impacts to southeast Texas are likely to be the same regardless of whether or not the system develops.

The primary concerns are:

1) Heavy rainfall

Moisture from the system will bring a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms Monday to Thursday. Rainfall may be heavy at times and could result in flooding. Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to range from 5-7 inches near the coast, 2-4 inches around I-10, and 1-2 inches for areas farther north. Locally higher amounts possible.

2) Hazardous seas

Strong east to southeast winds of 20-30 knots with higher gusts over the Gulf waters are likely to result in high seas. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, seas offshore may be in the 6-10 foot range with occasionally higher waves. Small craft advisory conditions are likely through much of the upcoming week. Gale conditions, at least in gusts, cannot be ruled out.

3) Rough surf / elevated tides

The rip current and coastal flooding risk is expected to increase through mid-week. Hazardous conditions for swimming are likely.
Minor coastal flooding is possible. Not a good week for beach recreation.



SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Oh, hi there! I wasn't expecting anyone to come by this portion of the AFD, I just assumed y'all would skip to the long term. But come in, come in! We've got weather to talk about here, too! It's not as exciting as an unsettled pattern and possible tropical shenanigans, but there are some things you've got to know.

First off, heat. We've got a western US ridge building its way across the southern tier of the US, which should give us subsidence aloft, generally supportive of higher daytime temperatures. We should also see the return of onshore flow, boosting humidity - and via that, the temperature floor that we're starting from. 850 temps do look fairly stable...they may even dip slightly today? On net, it's got me continuing to think we'll see temperatures hanging out modestly above seasonal averages. And while that doesn't sound like much, we just are in a place where the typical summertime heat is distressingly close to being dangerously hot, so even a modest increase in heat levels can be a cause for concern. As it is...forecast heat index values are solidly in the triple digits across the area both days, but also below the 108 threshold for a heat advisory for all but the most isolated hot spots.

It's the weekend, the weather will be nice for much of it, and I don't blame anyone who wants to spend most of it outside.
Just...be sure to keep plenty of water around for hydrating while you're doing that. And if you're near a place that's air-conditioned for some breaks, that's good too. The threat level implied by wet bulb globe temperatures peak out in the high range across Southeast Texas both days, so exertion in direct sun can still pose threats - but it can also be circumvented by minimizing that exertion during the times of most intense sun and heat. The more you can nudge activities to the morning or evening, the better, as WBGT looks to peak between noon and 5 pm.

Finally, come Sunday, the long advertised period of unsettled weather discussed in the long term is stating to sneak into the short term. Showers and storms are possible as early as Sunday morning out on the Gulf, and we could see an isolated shower or storm try to pop up Sunday afternoon generally coastward of I-10 west of Houston and coastward of US-59 east of Houston. Most will still dry, but don't be too surprised if one or two spots get some rain. While the potential for rain pulls back to over the Gulf Sunday evening as we lose daytime heating, the incoming pattern shift will begin to make itself known late Sunday night, and rain chances will begin to increase near the coast late Sunday night towards Monday morning. The stronger onshore flow and increase in cloudiness overnight should also keep overnight lows up a few degrees more, even for large chunks of inland Southeast Texas.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A broad area of low pressure that is expected to materialize over the west and southwest Gulf of Mexico will be the dominant feature in the long term. A steepening LL gradient between the low and a high pressure system over eastern CONUS will increase east to southeast LL flow across the Gulf, pushing deep tropical moisture into SE TX. PWAT values will increase from the 1.50-2.00" range on Monday to 2.50-3.00" by late Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, there is a good chance of daily showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday, possibly even Friday. In addition to the moisture, vort maxes embedded in the mid to low level flow may enhance lift and LL convergence. Global models suggest that one such disturbances could impact the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, further enhancing rain and thunderstorm activity.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible area wide this upcoming week. However, the southern half of the CWA (especially the coast) continue to have the best chance of heavy rainfall and flooding. Our current predicted rainfall totals through Sunday range from 5-7 inches near the coast, to 2-4 inches around the I-10 corridor, and 1-2 inches across much of the northern CWA But given the higher PWATs, locally heavier totals will be possible across the region. The steep LL gradient will also enhance east to southeast winds, especially on Tuesday-Thursday. Wind gusts near the coast could exceed 30 MPH while inland areas experience 20-25 MPH gusts. Overnight deterministic runs suggest coastal winds could gust over 40 MPH. We opted to keep our gusts closer to 30 MPH. However, we may need to increase our coastal winds if the overnight runs turn out to be a trend. Hazardous beach conditions in the form of dangerous surf and elevated tides are likely Tuesday-Thursday.

The low pressure system of interest could develop into a tropical system by the middle of the week. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression. HOWEVER, it is important to note that the impacts to SE TX will likely be the same regardless of whether or not the low develops into a tropical system. Heavy rainfall and hazardous surf/seas will be a concern regardless of development.

Self

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Light and variable winds will prevail through the early morning, then becoming southeasterly around 5-9kt through the day. VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, but there may be some patchy fog developing causing MVFR conditions at times.
Any fog that develops will dissipate after sunrise, then VFR conditions through the rest of the day.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A broad area of low pressure is expected to materialize in the west / southwest Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. A resulting gradient will gradually increase winds and seas through the middle of the upcoming week. Through the rest of the weekend, winds are expected to be light to moderate with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Winds and seas should begin increasing Sunday into Monday.
Southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots with offshore seas building to 4 to 6 feet are expected by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, sustained winds are projected to increase to around 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots. Offshore seas are expected to reach 6 to 10 feet, with locally higher waves likely. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in addition to the winds and seas.
Conditions are expected to be mostly dry today. Sunday has a better chance of scattered showers and storms. But the best chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be from Monday to Wednesday. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any thunderstorms. Small Craft Advisory level conditions are likely this week. Gale conditions, at least in gusts, cannot be ruled out.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the low a 50% chance of development by the middle of the week. It is important to note that the offshore impacts may be the same regardless of whether or not the system develops.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 71 95 76 91 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 74 93 77 88 / 0 20 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 80 87 / 10 30 50 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 16 mi58 minW 1.9G2.9 86°F29.88
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 16 mi58 minSSW 1.9G2.9 93°F29.88
HIST2 18 mi58 minN 1.9G1.9 93°F29.87
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi58 minWSW 1G1.9 90°F29.88
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi58 minSSE 5.1G7 88°F29.86
GTOT2 28 mi58 minS 2.9G5.1 90°F29.85
GRRT2 30 mi58 minESE 5.1G5.1 89°F29.86
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 31 mi58 minWNW 1G1.9 29.87
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi48 minSSE 3.9G5.8 87°F29.88
KGVW 41 mi33 minSE 7 84°F 72°F
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi58 minNW 2.9G4.1 86°F29.87
TXPT2 45 mi58 minSSW 1.9G2.9 88°F29.85
LUIT2 49 mi58 minSSE 5.1G7 88°F29.88


Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
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Wind History graph: EFD
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Tide / Current for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
   
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Point Barrow
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Sat -- 02:02 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:59 AM CDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:38 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:35 PM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:49 PM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
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0.5
2
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0.5
3
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0.6
4
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0.7
5
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0.7
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0.7
7
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0.7
8
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0.7
9
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0.6
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0.6
11
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0.6
12
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0.7
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0.7
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0.7
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0.8
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0.8
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0.9
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0.9
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0.8
8
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0.7
9
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0.5
10
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0.4
11
pm
0.3


Tide / Current for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
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Gilchrist
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Sat -- 02:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:00 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:34 AM CDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:03 PM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12
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0.5
1
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0.6
2
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0.7
3
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0.8
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0.8
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0.8
7
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0.7
8
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0.7
9
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0.7
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0.7
11
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0.7
12
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0.8
1
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0.8
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0.9
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1
4
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0.9
5
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0.9
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0.8
7
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0.6
8
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0.5
9
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0.4
10
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0.4
11
pm
0.3


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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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