Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Island, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 2:25 AM CST (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 840 Pm Cst Mon Nov 30 2020
.low water advisory in effect until midnight cst tonight...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Showers likely late.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely until late afternoon. Isolated Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Scattered showers late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers in the morning.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 840 Pm Cst Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate north winds and elevated seas will gradually subside tonight. This offshore flow will lead to low tide levels which could effect navigation through midnight. Onshore winds will return on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday as the high moves off to the east. The next cold front should move through the area Wednesday afternoon. A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop behind this front and will persist through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Island, TX
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location: 29.71, -94.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 010445 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

AVIATION.

High pressure will bring light winds and clear skies to area TAF sites tonight into Tuesday. The high will drift east and onshore winds will resume by late morning with moisture increasing in the afternoon. Scattered to broken ceilings expected late in the day and Tuesday night as moisture levels deepen. MVFR cigs will persist Tuesday night with showers developing between 06-09z. 43

PREV DISCUSSION . /ISSUED 346 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Our coldest night of the season so far, and the first freezing temperatures since late February/early March are expected tonight. Nearly all of inland Southeast Texas is expected to fall below freezing for at least a short stretch by dawn, and areas well north of Houston can look for several hours of sub-freezing temperatures.

Onshore flow should begin the return of modestly warmer and more humid air tomorrow - but we'll likely only get back to seasonal averages at the most, with another cold front expected on Wednesday. This one will lack the big surge of cold air, but any drop in temperatures at all is going to take us below average in temperatures into the weekend. This front will also bring another round of showers and storms. While this looks to be a bit more of a glancing blow, the last bout of heavy rain and colder ground sets us up to see a stronger response to rainfall this time around.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night] .

At most, the sky in Southeast Texas have been blemished only by scraps of passing cirrus, though temperatures have remained quite cool thanks to colder air being brought into the area by gusty northwest winds. These winds have been a bit slow to subside, and the small craft advisory on the Gulf has been extended because of it (see the Marine section below for more details).

High pressure has been seen in mesoanalysis to be slowly making its way westward across Texas through the day, and at 330 pm, is roughly in the dead center of the state. It will continue to blob its way to the east tonight, further causing the winds to diminish into tonight. It will be the clear sky and light winds as this high pressure center drifts by tonight that will set us up for some strong radiational cooling tonight. The forecast continues to take the freezing line all the way to the edge of our coastal zones, so we've continued the freeze warning untouched as issued by the midnight shift.

Tomorrow, the surface high will be moving off to our east, and this will see winds shift to being onshore during the day. This will start to pump modest amounts of warmer and more humid Gulf air back over the area, ensuring that tonight will be the only night of freezing temperatures, and should help tomorrow be a bit warmer than today.

As moisture increases, we'll also be looking for a new surface low to spin up over West Texas with the support of another upper trough dropping off the Rockies. As it zips along the Red River Valley, we'll be watching for the development of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm Tuesday night in the moisture inflow channel that sets up over us from the Gulf on Tuesday night ahead of the developing low's cold front. Most of this action will be on Wednesday, so I don't want to steal too much of the shift partner's thunder here, but I do have to note that rain chances will be increasing from the southwest along this moisture axis as we approach dawn on Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday] .

Per models, the best rain chances for SE TX this week still looks to be on Weds with the passage of a strong cold front (and the possible development of a coastal surface low over the Gulf waters). A strong upper low/trof combination moving into the Southern Plains will help to drag this front through the area, but rain chances may be further enhanced by this possible coastal low despite the modest PW returns. As such, the highest POPs should be across southern/coastal counties on Weds. Strong surface high pressure along with flattish ridging at the upper levels will keep the rest of the week cold/dry over SE TX. There are hints that we could see mid/high clouds return (along with perhaps some very slight chances of rain) during the latter parts of the upcoming weekend. The initial upper low/trof on Weds does appear to "split" as it travels over the Southern Rockies, and this remnant energy, which deepens over time, is progged to begin slowly tracking west over the weekend. The increasingly SW flow aloft should be more favorable for the stray shortwave in time.

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance] .

Gusty northeast winds to start, will gradually diminish through the afternoon into the early evening. After a short period of light, variable winds, we'll see a switch back to onshore flow tomorrow morning.

MARINE .

Per the ongoing wind/sea trends over the Gulf waters, have extended the SCEC (nearshore waters) and the SCA (offshore waters) for this evening/overnight. Winds and seas are expected to decrease to below criterion by early tomorrow morning . as well as slowly shifting to the SE. This onshore flow will be strengthening some through the day tomorrow, and these moderate SE winds should persist into Weds. The next cold front is still slated to move into the marine waters late Weds afternoon. Moderate to strong north winds are expected to form in its wake . and likely persist into the upcoming weekend.

HYDROLOGY .

A flood warning was issued for the San Bernard River at Boling, and that gage has recently passed into minor flood stage. It is expected to crest just above flood stage and fall back below flood very early tomorrow morning. Because of this rainfall and rise in river levels, this will likely be an area we will have to keep an eye on for any potential rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday.

TROPICAL .

While it is "officially" the last day of the 2020 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, NHC is still watching a feature in the far eastern Atlantic for potential development in the next day or two. Since it is 2020, I probably wouldn't be surprised to see a named storm in December. Fortunately, we are well into seeing frequent frontal passages and have much cooler sea surface temperatures in the nearshore Gulf. So, for all intents and purposes, any extension that may or may not occur will largely be academic for us here in Southeast Texas But. I also don't want to tempt fate at all this year, so I will choose to celebrate the end of the 2020 hurricane season on January 1, 2021.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 31 59 46 60 37 / 0 0 20 50 20 Houston (IAH) 31 61 52 63 42 / 0 0 40 60 30 Galveston (GLS) 44 65 60 68 48 / 0 0 40 70 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Austin . Brazos . Burleson . Colorado . Fort Bend . Grimes . Houston . Inland Brazoria . Inland Harris . Inland Jackson . Inland Matagorda . Madison . Montgomery . Northern Liberty . Polk . San Jacinto . Southern Liberty . Trinity . Walker . Waller . Washington . Wharton.

GM . Low Water Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay.



Discussion . 99 Aviation/Marine . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 16 mi56 min N 8 G 8.9 45°F 51°F1026.4 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 16 mi56 min W 2.9 G 5.1 46°F 64°F1026.5 hPa
HIST2 18 mi56 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 59°F1026 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 60°F1026 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi56 min N 7 G 8.9 49°F 64°F1025.1 hPa
GTOT2 28 mi56 min NW 6 G 8 48°F 63°F1026.2 hPa
GRRT2 30 mi56 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 56°F1026.2 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 31 mi62 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 68°F1026.1 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 35 mi86 min NW 5.1 G 6 39°F 1026.5 hPa (-0.7)34°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 37 mi36 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 67°F1025.7 hPa33°F
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 63°F1026 hPa
TXPT2 45 mi56 min WNW 8.9 G 8.9 41°F 62°F1024.3 hPa
LUIT2 49 mi56 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 48°F 65°F1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX26 mi96 minN 010.00 miFair39°F32°F75%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE3NE3------NW15N10NW10NW16W18NW20NW20NW20
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2 days agoE9E10E7NE6NE6NE6E6N7E9NE8E8E8E7NE8E7E11E11E7SE6E12E14E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM CST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM CST     1.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:52 PM CST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.111111110.90.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.811.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
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Gilchrist
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:55 AM CST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:23 AM CST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:27 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:03 PM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.11.11.11.11.110.90.80.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-00.20.50.81.11.21.31.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current



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