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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 858 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
.small craft should exercise caution tonight...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 20 knots, becoming south 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough. Showers, Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may be severe in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest around 15 knots after midnight, then becoming west around 10 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy. Thunderstorms and showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Some Thunderstorms may be severe early in the evening.
Friday through Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Saturday night and Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Bay waters becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 858 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
primary concern will be the increased onshore winds and building seas late tonight and Thursday ahead of a strong weather system moving across the southern plains. Southeast and south winds in the 20 to 30 knot range are anticipated along with seas of 6 to 9 feet nearshore and 10 to 14 feet offshore. This system will also bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms Thursday, some of which could be strong. Periods of unsettled should persist through the day Friday as the front stalls offshore.

FXUS64 KHGX 300348 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 948 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 948 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Incoming 00z HRRR members continue to point toward a conditional risk of severe storms Thursday with a high shear/low CAPE environment in place. Limiting factor for widespread severe storms would be overall instability and things lining up just right.

Looks like there will be some elevated shra/tstms around the region heading into the morning rush hour. Though only a limited amount of new model data is in and am somewhat hesitant to speculate without a full dataset, one thing we might look for is a secondary round of storms to develop across w/wsw parts of the western CWA heading into mid morning...eventually tracking ewd during the late morning and afternoon. This batch should theoretically have a slightly better chance of tapping into whatever llvl instability presents itself. A few tornadoes remain the primary concern. Though storm motions will be on the higher end, repeated downpours with rates >2"/hr are a distinct possibility. On average, 1-2" amounts are forecast south of I-69/US-59..with some of the incoming guidance suggesting the potential for localized higher swaths along/south of I-10 (particularly around Galveston Bay area). Street flooding is possible where heavy rain falls in a short time period.

Ongoing forecast is pretty much on track and just some fairly insignificant tweaks were made for the update. One thing to note...portions of Southeast Texas are currently outlooked for an enhanced risk of severe storms Thursday. Just because your particular location might not be situated right within this particular enhanced risk area does not mean significant weather will not, or cannot, occur. Residents all the way down to the coast should keep an eye on the latest forecast conditions during the day Thursday. 47

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A mid/upper trough will eject northeastward across Texas and into the Plains Thursday and Thursday night. The atmosphere will destabilize and moisten ahead of this feature, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning late tonight and Thursday morning.
Rounds of showers and storms are expected all day Thursday and continuing into Thursday evening for eastern areas.

There is a slight and enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms (Levels 2 and 3 of 5) for SE Texas tomorrow. This threat is likely to begin in the morning, persist through the afternoon, and shift east of the area by late evening. The main concern is isolated tornadoes, but strong wind gusts and large hail are a possibility as well. It should be noted that there is uncertainty concerning the degree of instability given that surface heating is likely to be limited due to cloud cover and widespread convection. The wind shear is significant though, and therefore warrants the severe thunderstorm/tornado risk.

Although showers and thunderstorms are expected to move quickly enough to limit the flooding potential, some cell training, especially across central and eastern areas, could result is localized flooding.

Another concern for tomorrow will be increased south to southeast winds ahead of this strengthening system. Winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts can be expected areawide tomorrow afternoon.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Not many changes this afternoon from the overnight forecast for the end of this week into early next. Primary focus will be Friday through the weekend with some uncertainty on rain/shower chances as the cold front hangs up over the nwrn Gulf after pushing offshore late Thursday. For now will keep chance or slight chance wording for rain showers near the coast each day, with lower or no PoPs farther inland. Other than some lingering clouds and rain chances near the coast as mentioned, we will see general improvement in the overall weather starting this weekend with drier weather for all areas by early next week. All in all, rather seasonal temperatures can be expected each day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s each day.

Evans

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

BKN cirrus/VFR decks are expected early tonight with light to moderate SE winds prevailing across the region. MVFR CIGS begin to fill in overnight as light showers develop from west to east.
CIGS drop to IFR levels Thursday morning with gusty conditions developing as a 35-40 knot LLJ settles in around 2000 ft. Numerous thunderstorms are expected late Thursday morning through the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall with these storms may result in low visibility and LIFR CIGS at times. These storms will also be capable of producing severe weather.

Rain chances decrease Thursday evening with winds shifting S/SW ahead of an approaching cold front. Lingering showers remain possible along and ahead of this front.

03

MARINE
Issued at 138 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Primary concern will be the increased winds tomorrow ahead of a strong weather system moving across the southern plains. This will bring strong onshore winds near Gale force in the offshore, with caution or advisory criteria for the nearshore and bays. Seas will also build through the day with seas of 6 to 9 feet nearshore and 10 to 14 feet offshore. This system will also bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday, which will persist through the day Friday as the front stalls offshore.

Evans

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 57 70 54 67 / 70 100 40 10 Houston (IAH) 57 70 62 71 / 50 90 70 20 Galveston (GLS) 62 71 64 70 / 40 90 70 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 9 AM CST Thursday through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.

Gale Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Thursday evening for GMZ370-375.

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Round Point, Trinity Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
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Wed -- 01:05 AM CST     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:45 PM CST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:19 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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