Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crescent Beach, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights this Afternoon and Tonight:

- Showers and thunderstorms will impact coastal southeast GA and much of northeast and north central FL this afternoon through early this evening. A few strong storms may be possible along the I-95 corridor before activity moves offshore towards sunset.

- Areas of locally dense fog are possible during the predawn hours on Monday.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue through at least Tuesday at the northeast FL beaches.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1026 millibars) centered to the south of Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula. Meanwhile, a lengthy cold front extends from the coastal Mid-Atlantic region southwestward through the Appalachians and the lower Mississippi Valley all the way through the western Gulf.
Aloft...zonal flow prevails across the Deep South, which lies in between a ridge over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf)
and a broad trough that extends from the Great Lakes southward through the Ozarks that was progressing eastward. A shortwave trough that was embedded within the zonal flow pattern was moving across the Deep South. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs values of 1.25 - 1.5 inches remain in place across our area. Convection was developing downstream of this shortwave trough for locations along the I-95 corridor in southeast GA and along and east of the I-75 corridor in northeast and north central FL. Outside of rain cooled locations, temperatures at 18Z have generally warmed to the 80-85 degree range, while coastal locations have cooled to the mid and upper 70s behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Dewpoints were mostly in the mid to upper 60s across our region.

Troughing will pivot across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening before progressing across the Carolinas towards sunrise on Monday. This trough will direct a shortwave trough eastward across our area tonight. Convection should continue to increase in coverage across the eastern half of our area as mesoscale boundaries collide and activity encounters surface based CAPE values around 2,000 j/kg. Although mid-level temperatures have warmed and this shortwave trough will only contain a 30-35 knot low level jet as it crosses our region, enough moisture and instability exists for a few storms to pulse and become briefly strong along the I-95 corridor as mesoscale boundaries collide through late this afternoon. Isolated stronger storms may be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, downburst winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and briefly heavy downpours before sunset this evening. Rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half inch will be possible for locations along the I-95 corridor, with lesser amounts expected elsewhere through this evening.

The frontal boundary will begin to stall to the northwest of our area overnight tonight, with light southwesterly low level flow continuing for our region. This flow will likely advect a deck of low stratus ceilings and possibly locally dense fog eastward from Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf across our area during the overnight and predawn hours on Monday, with these lower clouds and potentially dense fog likely approaching the I-95 corridor towards sunrise. Lows will only fall to the low and mid 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense fog potential during the predawn and early morning hours, especially over inland northeast FL.

- Near record warmth on Monday and Tuesday afternoons at inland locations.

The region will remain within the rather weak influence of the western periphery of a surface ridge through Tuesday Night, which will persist a modest southwesterly flow across the region. This regime will also aid with sea breeze development both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, which will struggle to push inland due to the southwest flow.

Afternoon/evening convective chances will be generally higher on Monday, especially over interior GA closer to a stalled diffuse frontal boundary. By Tuesday, strengthening subsidence aloft will essentially curtail any chances for showers or Thunderstorms.

The flow regime and building subsidence will allow above normal temperatures to persist, especially on Tuesday where more notable strengthening in ridging aloft is expected. Highs in the mid to upper 80s will be common Monday, except for some upper 70s to near 80 at the immediate coast. Upper 80s will become even more common inland by Tuesday, with some readings around 90 also very possible.
Once again, highs will be limited to the upper 70s to low 80s near the immediate coast.

In addition to the near record daytime highs, very mild mornings will continue to flirt with record high minimum temps in some areas as 60s will be common each night. As mentioned with the above headlines, patchy to areas of dense fog will be expected over portions of the area each morning through Wednesday Morning, with the best chances for dense fog expected to be closer to the I-75 corridor.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Near record warmth continues Wednesday.

- Areas of locally dense fog possible Wednesday Morning.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms area-wide on Thursday.

- Small craft advisory conditions likely from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

- Slightly cooler temperatures Thursday night through Friday night

Higher heights/ridging aloft will reach its peak on Wednesday, resulting in another very warm and dry day, perhaps the warmest day of the year so far. This changes rather quickly as a cold front approaches and moves through the region during the day Thursday and Thursday Night. The front looks to move too fast for any significant needed rainfall, though a quick quarter to a half inch is generally expected with some locally higher amounts in embedded thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temps arrive behind the front Thursday Night and Friday as weak high pressure briefly builds into the area, likely shifting into the western Atlantic by Saturday. Guidance is a bit split with respect to how far south and east the front makes it before stalling, as well as if/where a weak coastal trough lingers off the eastern FL coast heading into next weekend. For now, kept at least slight chances in for south and eastern areas for Friday and into the weekend.

As mentioned above, temps will be well above normal Wednesday before trending closer to/slightly above climo for the rest of the long term.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the regional terminals through around 00Z, with confidence high enough to maintain TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions and brief wind gusts up to 25 knots. Convection should progress east- northeastward early this evening, moving offshore by 02Z. VFR conditions should then prevail through at least 04Z, followed by another round of low stratus ceilings and potentially dense fog during the overnight and predawn hours on Monday. IFR conditions should begin at VQQ towards 05Z and will then overspread the rest of the regional terminals by 12Z Monday.
South to southwesterly surface of 10-15 knots will prevail at the inland terminals, except southeasterly at the coastal terminals as the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries move inland, likely colliding near the I-95 or U.S. Highway 17 corridor after 20Z. Southwest to westerly winds will then prevail once convection moves offshore after 00Z, with speeds gradually diminishing overnight.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing south to southwesterly wind flow across our local waters through midweek.
A frontal boundary entering the southeastern states this afternoon will stall to the north of our waters tonight before lifting northward as a warm front on Monday night and Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the Interstate 95 corridor will likely progress eastward across our local waters late this afternoon through early this evening, with activity likely dissipating by midnight. Otherwise, episodes of dense fog will be possible each morning through midweek.

A stronger cold front will cross our local waters on Thursday, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions on Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly and then northeasterly on Thursday night before becoming easterly with diminishing speeds on Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds will keep a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches this afternoon, with this risk persisting at the northeast FL beaches through at least Tuesday. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Possible Area-Wide On Thursday

Generally weak high pressure will be the main feature through Wednesday before our next cold front approaches and moves through the region on Thursday. Today, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely late this afternoon and through the evening, mainly towards the I-95 corridor and the coast where a southwesterly sea breeze off the Gulf meets the east coast sea breeze. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds and very small hail will be possible in addition to heavy downpours.
Dispersions will be generally fair to good away from the immediate coastline as the stable Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned near the coast. Monday through Wednesday will be drier overall for the majority of the area, while remaining very warm as well. Dispersions will trend in the fair to good range during this time frame for most, especially Wednesday as southerly flow increases ahead of the next front.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of locally dense fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours each day through Wednesday, especially over south and western areas.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to return area-wide on Thursday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

March 8: KJAX: 86/1974 KCRG: 86/1998 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974

March 9: KJAX: 88/2024 KCRG: 83/2012 KGNV: 89/1907 KAMG: 86/1974

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 8: KJAX: 68/1946 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 65/1973 KAMG: 63/1973

March 9: KJAX: 69/2024 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 69/2024 KAMG: 63/1973

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 66/1909 KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 83 63 86 / 40 10 20 10 SSI 62 78 63 78 / 40 10 20 10 JAX 61 85 62 87 / 20 10 10 10 SGJ 63 83 61 83 / 40 10 10 10 GNV 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10 OCF 61 86 61 89 / 10 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.