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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 337 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this evening, then becoming southwest around 10 knots. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy this evening, then becoming smooth. Thunderstorms likely early. Showers this evening. Isolated Thunderstorms this evening. Patchy fog. Some Thunderstorms may be severe early.
Friday..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 337 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
primary concern continues to be moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas this afternoon and evening as a storm system moves across the area. Small craft advisories remain in effect. Winds over the offshore waters should diminish below gale warning criteria early this evening. Therefore, the warning will be replaced with a small craft advisory through the late night to overnight period. Another concern is the potential for sea fog developing prior to front overnight through early Friday over the nearshore waters. Periods of unsettled weather should persist through the day Friday and Friday night as the front stalls offshore while north to northeast winds and elevated seas gradually come down. A weaker offshore flow is expected Saturday through Monday morning.

FXUS64 KHGX 302142 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 342 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rain chances will be decreasing this evening into tonight. Then, a cold front will push through Southeast Texas late tonight into early Friday morning and is expected to stall somewhere close to the coasts. Areas of fog during the overnight and morning hours are still a possibility and could impact the visibilities during the morning commute. The low temperatures overnight to the early morning hours will be in the mid to upper 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 60s over the rest of the area.

On Friday, the front is expected to meander near the coasts as a weak coastal trough develops over the Lower Texas Coast and possibly moves into the western Gulf waters. This could keep decent low level moisture over our region and with weaknesses moving overhead during the day, may be able to result in additional periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Given the position of the frontal boundary and the location of the higher PWs, areas along and south of I-10 will have the greatest chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water along roadways and minor flooding over areas of poor drainage. Showers and storms will decrease from west to east during the night hours as the frontal boundary moves a little more offshore and drier air filters into Southeast Texas. The highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the low 70s over the rest of area. The lows will decrease a few degrees with the cooler airmass and will range between the upper 40s to low 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over areas north of I-10, and the upper 50s to low 60s over areas along and south of I-10.

Cotto (24)

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

With the active southern stream jet and moisture remaining in place across SE TX on Sat, will likely keep some low POPs in for parts of the area...mainly for our eastern/southeastern counties in into the coastal waters. These rain chances should decrease by Sat afternoon as cooler/drier air moves in from the north.

Light to moderate N/NW winds to prevail on Sun, but as weak surface high pressure begins building over the region, winds will be becom- ing more variable on Mon. A second reinforcing cold front will then move down into the area on Tues. Currently, not expecting any major or significant POPs with this FROPA given the lack of moisture.

Otherwise, the main features for the long-term forecast will be the cool nights and mild days (lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s). 41



AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A mix of IFR to MVFR conditions expected across SE TX, through much of the TAF period. Areas of SH/TS expected over portions of the CWA through early tonight. Some storms could become strong to severe. Brief periods of LIFR cigs/vis and strong VRB winds and gusts possible with mod-heavy storms. SE winds generally at around 10-15 KTS with higher gusts, stronger in and near SH/TS. Overnight into Fri morning, areas of patchy fog are possible along with reduced vis and LIFR cigs at times. Winds will become N on Fri at around 5 KTS. Conditions will still be favorable for a few more rounds of SH/TS during the day on Fri.

Cotto (24)

MARINE
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Strong winds, elevated seas and scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become strong, are the primary concerns the rest of this afternoon through early evening. The storm system responsible of this activity is currently located over west TX and will continue to shift eastward this evening, dragging a surface cold front late through Southeast Texas tonight into early Friday morning. Currently, south winds are gusting from 20 to 35 knots and this could continue through early Friday. Gale-force gusts are still expected through early this evening. Therefore, Gale Warnings remain in effect until 6PM this evening, then the warning will be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory through the late night to overnight period.

The secondary concern is the potential for sea fog developing prior to front overnight through early Friday. In collaboration with surrounding offices, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect from midnight through 9AM. The cold front should move just off the coast into the nearshore coastal waters by early Friday morning, potentially stalling over the Upper TX coast during the day. The stalling front, combined with a weak coastal trough will result in scattered showers with a few thunderstorms during the day, mainly offshore. This front should eventually move well offshore by Friday night, leaving us with light to occasionally moderate offhsore winds into the weekend.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 55 68 50 71 / 30 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 63 73 58 72 / 40 30 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 63 70 61 69 / 50 50 60 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ355.

Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:53 AM CST     1.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:51 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:22 AM CST     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:21 PM CST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

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