Cinco Ranch, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cinco Ranch, TX

June 16, 2024 4:18 AM CDT (09:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 2:37 PM   Moonset 1:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

Tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots diminishing to near 10 knots toward morning. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy late. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms late.

Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - East winds around 20 knots, rising to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, rising to rough in the afternoon. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern gulf of mexico in a day or two - .moving slowly westward or west-northwestward. In addition to periods of unsettled weather, look for increasing winds, seas, and water levels across the upper texas coastal waters as we head into the early and midweek time period. Small craft advisories are likely and some gale conditions cannot be ruled out in the gulf waters. Mariners should closely Monitor the forecasts.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cinco Ranch, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 160908 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 408 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Heavy rainfall, hazardous marine conditions, and dangerous coastal surf are expected this week.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to materialize over the western Gulf of Mexico bringing unsettled weather to the region from Monday to Thursday. As of 2AM CDT, the National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 60% chance of development by the middle of the week. However, the expected impacts are the same regardless of development.

Below are the primary weather concerns for this week.

1) Heavy Rainfall

There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. There will be a daily risk of heavy rainfall during this time frame. However, the time frame of most concern is Tuesday evening through Wednesday. A Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall has been issued across most of the southern half of our region (including the Houston metro) for late Tuesday into Wednesday. The rest of our region is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). Street flooding as well as rising creeks, rivers, and bayous are a concern this week.

2) Hazardous Marine Conditions in the Bays and Offshore

Winds and seas will gradually build through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory criteria is likely to be met by Monday. Gale conditions are possible offshore, and potentially in the bays, by Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas are likely to exceed 10 feet offshore and could approach 15 feet Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

3) Coastal Flooding

Water levels at the coast are likely to remain higher than normal all week. By Tuesday and Wednesday (possibly Thursday), water levels may become high enough to result in coastal flooding, especially during high tide. Water levels could exceed 5 feet above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water) during high tide on Wednesday.

4) Dangerous Surf / Rip Currents

The beaches will not be safe for swimming Monday-Thursday due to rough surf and dangerous rip currents. It is possible that hazardous beach conditions could extend beyond Thursday. In addition, there will be a daily risk of lightning from thunderstorms. Not a great weather week for beach activities.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today marks the beginning of a transition from the hotter, drier beginning of the weekend to the unsettled pattern that will dominate the coming week. Looking for highs today to be largely in the lower 90s, with some hot spots around the Houston metro and coastal plain pushing into the mid-90s, and folks right on the Gulf only getting to around 90
So
fairly seasonable, all around. With onshore flow getting reestablished, boundary layer moisture - especially nearer the coast - will be a bit more stout this afternoon. This will help give us peak heat index values that are in the triple digits for virtually the whole area, and maxing out in the 105-108 range from portions of the Houston metro southwest along the coastal plain. As far as precip goes, today should still be mostly dry over the land, though we can probably expect some isolated shower/storm development off the seabreeze.
My thinking is the best bet will be in the southwest, where boundary layer moisture quality looks slightly better.

For the most part, however, the best potential for showers or some storms will be out over the Gulf waters today. Eventually, as this Gulf airmass continues to blob its way over Southeast Texas, we may start to see some quick-hitter showers make their way in from the coast. Don't expect to see this until late tonight, after midnight.
I'm envisioning something that looks like when we get the routine late night/pre-dawn streamer showers at the coast.
Quick, light, and ending as quickly as they start.

Monday looks to give the first taste of the week to come, as we come more fully under the influence of the tropical airmass causing that orange commotion down in the Bay of Campeche. Showers should become numerous to widespread near the coast...generally coastward of Houston. Farther inland, widely scattered to scattered showers and some storms can be expected. In general, I'm thinking most of the area is still looking for light to moderate rainfall. We're still early in the process, and the current airmass in place is pretty dry
It should change quickly
but not instantaneously. There's maybe a little more concern for heavier storms near the coast around Galveston Bay. With precipitable water progged to increase to around or above 2 inches, a particularly strong updraft could produce some briefly heavy rain over localized spots. As a result, WPC's day one outlook for excessive rain does include a marginal risk area extending to the Galveston Bay area (threat level 1 of 4).

On the bright side, the higher levels of cloudiness and more numerous showers and storms will more noticeably tamp down high temperatures. Much of the area looks to struggle to reach 90 degrees - those with the best shot to get into the lower 90s will likely be in the inland west, where the incoming airmass will be last to arrive. Elsewhere, I'm thinking something more in the middle to upper 80s. It'll be humid, so that is likely to keep heat index values up - in the upper 90s to a little above 100. But hey, better than nothing, I suppose. The relief will be most apparent for those performing physical tasks outdoors - the wet bulb globe temperature, which for several days has been rising into the high, or even extreme threat levels across the area (levels 4 and 5 of 5), looks to only be in a moderate threat level (level 3 of 5) on Monday. Of course, you'll probably also be dodging showers, so...win some lose some, I guess.

Rains are expected to make themselves a much more significant part of the forecast going forward, but I'll leave discussion of that to the long term forecaster...

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

On Tuesday into Wednesday, the LL gradient will steepen between a high pressure system over eastern CONUS and the low pressure system over the west and southwest Gulf of Mexico. The increased ESE to SE flow will continue to push deep tropical moisture into southeast Texas from the Gulf. This enhanced flow will be noticeable via gusty winds, especially near the coast where winds could gust over 40 MPH. Surging PWATS (2.50 to 3.00 inches) and sufficient lift should allow for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. This set up alone would suffice for locally heavy rainfall. However, vort maxes embedded in the low/mid level flow could introduce additional lift and LL convergence. Global determinist guidance agrees that a cluster of vort maxes will push towards the Texas coast sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon. That being said, there is quite a bit of model variance regarding exactly where these vorticity maxima track which has huge implications on the location of heaviest rainfall. There continues to be some consensus that the highest risk of heavy rainfall and flooding will be across the southern CWA The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the excessive rainfall risk to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) over much of the southern half of our CWA while areas farther north are in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). Showers and thunderstorms are likely to linger into Thursday and could linger through the end of the week.

Forecast rainfall totals through Thursday have once again been revised upwards, ranging from 8-11 inches near the coast, to 5-8 inches near the I-10 corridor, and 2-4 inches across our northern counties. Given the high PWATs and the potential enhancement from LL disturbances, rainfall totals could exceed 12 inches in some locations. Near the coast, any heavy rainfall related problems could be exacerbated by the enhanced tides, especially if heavy rainfall occurs near high tide.

Please have multiple ways to receive warnings this week. If you encounter flooded roads while driving, turn around and avoid water covered roads. Stay weather aware and please regularly check for forecast updates in case the risk of heavy rainfall increases further.

Self

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There's a non-zero chance of an isolated late afternoon or early evening tstm or two that pops up Sunday...but chances are too low for any one individual location to mention in the TAFs at this time. Will probably see some sct shra activity along the coast toward heading ito early Mon morning, but with the exception of IAH this is beyond the 6z TAF period. 47

MARINE
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Relatively light southeast winds this morning will become more moderate by this afternoon. In addition to the increasing winds, there will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Winds, seas, and rain chances increase further on Monday, with Small Craft Advisory level conditions likely by the afternoon.
Conditions further deteriorate on Tuesday into Wednesday as winds increase to 25-30 knots with gale force gusts. Offshore seas are likely to exceed 10 feet and possibly reach 15 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds and seas may be locally higher within or near heavy showers and thunderstorms. It is worth mentioning that some of our model guidance suggest that winds and seas will be higher than currently predicted. Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease during the Thursday to Friday time frame. However, showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 75 / 10 0 30 0 Houston (IAH) 93 77 89 77 / 20 20 70 30 Galveston (GLS) 89 81 87 80 / 20 50 80 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 29 mi48 minSW 1.9G2.9 82°F 29.84
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 44 mi48 minESE 8.9G11 83°F 87°F29.85


Wind History for Manchester, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KTME HOUSTON EXECUTIVE,TX 8 sm23 minSE 0310 smClear75°F75°F100%29.88
KSGR SUGAR LAND RGNL,TX 11 sm25 mincalm10 smClear75°F73°F94%29.86
KAXH HOUSTONSOUTHWEST,TX 23 sm23 mincalm10 smClear73°F72°F94%29.88
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Wind History graph: TME
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Tide / Current for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
   
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Lynchburg Landing
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Sun -- 12:17 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:28 AM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:36 PM CDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:17 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet
12
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0.4
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0.4
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0.4
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0.6
4
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0.7
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0.8
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0.9
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1
8
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1
9
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1
10
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1.1
11
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1.1
12
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1
1
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1
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1.1
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1.1
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0.9
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0.8
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0.7
9
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0.5
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0.4
11
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0.3


Tide / Current for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
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Sun -- 01:42 AM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM CDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 PM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
12
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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0.5
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11
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0.5
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0.4
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0.2
11
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0.1


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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