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GMZ765 Expires:202312031515;;800523 Fzus52 Ktae 030206 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 906 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-765-031515- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- 906 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est Sunday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog late this evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then showers likely late. Visibility 1 nm or less late this evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 906 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..
fog is a concern for the apalachee bay east of the ochlocknee river, so a marine dense fog advisory was issued for that part of the bay and may need to be expanded later tonight depending on trends. A slow-moving cold front will move through the northeast gulf waters late Sunday. It will be followed by a turn to moderate west and northwest breezes. A reinforcing front on Monday will bring a turn to northerly breezes. A strong high pressure center will move from the southern plains to the lower mississippi valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing northerly breezes to persist. The high pressure center will move across the northeast gulf late Thursday.

FXUS62 KTAE 030229 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 929 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 908 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Updated the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends. A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms stretches from southwestern Georgia through the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Instantaneous precipitation rates of 2" to 4"+ per hour are being seen within this band as it heads east. We'll carefully monitor things, especially for the western Florida Big Bend area, where some areas have picked up 6" to 9"+ of rain so far with this event. Hi-res model guidance suggests another 0.5" to nearly 2" of rain are possible tonight through early Sunday morning, which could lead to additional flooding concerns overnight. There is also enough Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) available to keep thunderstorms in the forecast through the night.

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Heavy rainfall threat continues through Sunday morning with much of the region in a SLGT risk for excessive rainfall. In particular, the FL and southern tier of GA counties will be most at risk, with additional flooding is possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas, including Southeast Alabama. If the focus of the heavy rainfall remains in the aforementioned FL/GA areas, we will reassess the Flood Watch for Southeast Alabama tonight. There is still a limited potential for severe weather, mainly from the eastern FL Big Bend (closer to the Suwanee Valley) and along the coastal areas. In particular, the warm front has cleared Cross City, where there is surface based instability. Given large deep layer shear and clockwise low-level hodographs, isolated damaging wind and a tornado is possible, mainly coastal Big Bend and closer to the Suwanee Valley. We also expect advection fog to develop in Apalachee Bay this evening/early tonight and spread northward into the adjacent FL Big Bend and perhaps Southwest Georgia. Current forecast reflects patchy to areas of fog. We cannot rule out dense fog, prior to the cold front mixing out the air mass Sunday morning. Improving weather is expected Sunday afternoon. Temps will hold nearly steady or fall slightly overnight, with lows in the 60s. Highs on Sunday mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Drier air will be filtering in on W-NW low-level flow on Sunday night. Patchy fog is possible over Dixie County near sunrise Monday, where the dry air may arrive too late to prevent a little fog.

A broad longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will open the door to a dry secondary reinforcing cold frontal passage on Monday.
Even drier air will filter in behind this front on Monday PM.
Winds will decouple under clear skies on Monday night, bringing effective radiational cooling. Have already undercut NBM over the Big Bend region with lows on Monday night, but MOS suggests it could be even cooler yet.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Cool and dry weather will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday.
One last dry reinforcing cold front will swing through on Wednesday, bringing a strengthening of low-level northerly flow.

A large surface high pressure center will be over the Southern Plains on Tuesday. It will move directly across the service area on Thursday PM.

It will move off the northeast Florida coast on Friday, but a trailing ridge axis will still extend back across North Florida.
This will keep the initial return of southeast/south flow on the weak side. The air mass will start to transition away from continental polar on Friday, but it will be a much slower transition than we had in recent days.

The next large upper trough will move across the Southern U.S.
Rockies next weekend, and our upper flow will become south of west. Models are in good agreement on the development of this system, but there are large timing differences with how soon or quickly this system will eject east across the Southern Plains.
As a result, rain chances will only incrementally increase over the course of next Saturday and Saturday night, mainly to account for the faster solutions.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

At least two more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to slide through the region tonight into Sunday morning. The Greatest chance for thunderstorms will be for KECP and KTLH.
Ceilings are a little higher between the rounds of rain, so attempted to account for some of that in the TAFs. Overall, MVFR to IFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at most TAF sites except KECP, where LIFR ceilings expected much of the night. Visibilities may also drop for KTLH and KVLD Sunday morning. A cold front sliding through the southeast early tomorrow turns the winds more out of the west as ceilings rise later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Amendments may be necessary later tonight as ceilings may go lower than what's in the TAFs currently following the batch of showers and storms between KPNS and KECP as of 00Z Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 908 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Fog is a concern for the Apalachee Bay east of the Ochlocknee River, so a Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for that part of the bay and may need to be expanded later tonight depending on trends. A slow-moving cold front will move through the northeast Gulf waters late Sunday. It will be followed by a turn to moderate west and northwest breezes. A reinforcing front on Monday will bring a turn to northerly breezes. A strong high pressure center will move from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, causing northerly breezes to persist.
The high pressure center will move across the northeast Gulf late Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Soaking rains are possible into Sunday morning with flooding possible, then a drying trend as a cold front moves through the region. Pockets of low dispersion are possible on Sunday. Dry weather is then on tap on Monday and Tuesday with brisk westerly transport winds and a return to at least moderate dispersions.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 402 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A large area received 3 to 5 inches of rain today, roughly along and south of a line from Panama City to Blountstown to Thomasville, then southward to the Forgotten Coast. Peak values of 6+ inches were observed from Lake Talquin across parts of northern Leon County.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast through this evening in these same areas. It will not take much additional rainfall to exacerbate runoff issues.

Now that water is on the ground, where will it go? Observed rainfall has pushed the river forecast into minor flood for the Saint Marks at Newport and the Aucilla at Lamont. We are in the middle of assessing the Sopchoppy basin, where 5-6 inches of rain was common and could cause flooding. Bear Creek in Bay County is rising quickly through action stage right now. For now, we have issued a Flood Warning for the Saint Marks at Newport, and additional river flood warnings are likely to come in the next 24 hours.

Rain should start to taper off after this evening, with only light amounts forecast for Sunday. We may eventually be able to cancel the Flood Watch before its current expiration late Sunday afternoon. Expect to see some spatial and temporal trimming of the watch as soon as late this evening.

Dry weather is forecast from Monday through Friday. The next hydrologically significant rain should hold off until beyond the 7-day forecast.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 74 56 72 / 80 80 10 0 Panama City 68 73 57 70 / 80 70 10 0 Dothan 66 71 50 67 / 70 70 0 0 Albany 66 73 50 68 / 80 60 10 0 Valdosta 66 75 56 71 / 80 70 20 0 Cross City 70 77 62 74 / 30 70 20 0 Apalachicola 68 73 59 71 / 80 80 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ007>019-026-027-108- 112-114.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ115.

GA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ155>160.

AL...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for GMZ730-765.

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Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:27 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:22 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:47 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:54 PM EST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fishermans Rest, Florida, Tide feet

Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:26 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:21 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:53 PM EST     1.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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