Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Steinhatchee, FL
May 15, 2024 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM Moonset 1:27 AM |
GMZ765 Expires:202405152200;;256004 Fzus52 Ktae 151450 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 1050 am edt Wed may 15 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-152200- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1050 am edt Wed may 15 2024 /950 am cdt Wed may 15 2024/
Rest of today - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and west 2 feet at 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 1050 am edt Wed may 15 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-152200- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1050 am edt Wed may 15 2024 /950 am cdt Wed may 15 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1050 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday, pushing out the remaining Thunderstorms off the northern nature coast later this afternoon. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the waters on Monday.
high pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday, pushing out the remaining Thunderstorms off the northern nature coast later this afternoon. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the waters on Monday.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 151504 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The only update was to extend the chance for showers and thunderstorms further into this afternoon over Dixie County.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching 90 in some areas.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the short term will be in the low 70s.
The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.
The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal (1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high with most of the area at or above 80% chances for rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday's severe potential will depend on the system's behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it's all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to be north of I-10.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Satellite shows patchy low clouds over the region and TAF sites have been bouncing reporting ceilings bouncing between VFR and MVFR this morning. The good news is that showers and storms held off for most of the night, but radar has shown some storms developing over the Gulf. The question is, will they be able to expand far enough to the north to impact KTLH and KVLD. Confidence remains relatively low so I kept the TAFs optimistic and left VCTS/TS out. This will need to be watched and those sites may need to be amended if they do creep that far inland. Outside of that, winds may be gusty this afternoon but will begin to decrease as we head towards sunset. VFR conditions are expected once the low cloud lifts.
MARINE
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Buoy 42036 this morning has mostly been reporting southerly waves of 3 feet at 7 seconds.
From CWF synopsis...High pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday, pushing out the remaining thunderstorms off the northern Nature Coast later this afternoon. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the waters on Monday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 66 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 84 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 86 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 66 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 84 66 88 66 / 70 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 71 85 73 / 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The only update was to extend the chance for showers and thunderstorms further into this afternoon over Dixie County.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching 90 in some areas.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the short term will be in the low 70s.
The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.
The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal (1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high with most of the area at or above 80% chances for rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday's severe potential will depend on the system's behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it's all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to be north of I-10.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Satellite shows patchy low clouds over the region and TAF sites have been bouncing reporting ceilings bouncing between VFR and MVFR this morning. The good news is that showers and storms held off for most of the night, but radar has shown some storms developing over the Gulf. The question is, will they be able to expand far enough to the north to impact KTLH and KVLD. Confidence remains relatively low so I kept the TAFs optimistic and left VCTS/TS out. This will need to be watched and those sites may need to be amended if they do creep that far inland. Outside of that, winds may be gusty this afternoon but will begin to decrease as we head towards sunset. VFR conditions are expected once the low cloud lifts.
MARINE
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Buoy 42036 this morning has mostly been reporting southerly waves of 3 feet at 7 seconds.
From CWF synopsis...High pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday, pushing out the remaining thunderstorms off the northern Nature Coast later this afternoon. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the waters on Monday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 66 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 84 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 86 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 66 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 84 66 88 66 / 70 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 71 85 73 / 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL | 46 mi | 115 min | W 8G | 79°F | 56 ft | 29.82 | 72°F | |
| CKYF1 | 49 mi | 49 min | SW 11G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.90 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCTY CROSS CITY,FL | 24 sm | 14 min | SSW 09G15 | 3 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Thunderstorm Hvy Rain Mist | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 29.90 |
| KFPY PERRYFOLEY,FL | 24 sm | 14 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 70°F | 66% | 29.86 |
Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:44 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT 1.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:27 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:44 AM EDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:42 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT 1.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fishermans Rest, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:41 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:13 PM EDT 1.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:41 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:13 PM EDT 1.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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