Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur, LA

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Clear skies and calm winds prevail across the region early this morning as upper level ridging remains in place across the northern gulf coast and surface high pressure extends across the eastern and central gulf. Patchy ground fog has developed across parts of central Louisiana each of the last three mornings and short range guidance is indicating a better than 60% chance of it occurring again this morning between 6 and 8 AM. Given both these probabilities and persistence, continued to carry patchy fog wording this morning. While a few areas of patchy ground fog can't be ruled out closer to the coast, probabilities have been consistently lower with little development observed the previous few nights.

The upper ridge that has been in place for much of the week will flatten out tonight into early Sunday morning as a weak frontal boundary works its way toward the gulf. Guidance has been consistent in slowing this front as it reaches the coast where it will meander through the first half of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, a slug of deep tropical moisture associated with a weak area of low pressure meandering across northern Mexico and south Texas will aid in driving precipitable water values to 2.25+ Monday and Tuesday. The combination of these two features are expected to produce a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms capable of high rainfall rates beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday evening. Forecast QPF totals for the event have been trending slightly downward over the last 24 hours or so, but the most likely scenario over the 48 hour period still drops 2-3 inches across much of the region with a reasonable worst case ranging between 4 and 6 inches. It's important to keep in mind that the potentially high rainfall rates associated with these warm rain process storms will be capable of dropping a large proportion of those totals over a relatively short period of time. WPC has maintained it's slight risk of excessive rainfall across nearly the entire region Monday with the slight risk continuing across parts of Acadiana into Tuesday. Relatively short duration nuisance street flooding is the most likely direct impact as even the best drainage will struggle to keep up with the copious rainfall. On the upside, overcast skies and plentiful precipitation will hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s both Monday and Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the quasistationary front will lose its structure and dissipate as the broader upper level trof begins to lift northeast out of the region taking some of the deeper tropical moisture with it. This will result in less overall convection Wednesday, but there will still be more than enough leftover moisture to produce diurnally driven afternoon convection as highs again climb to near 90. The previously mentioned area of low pressure over northern Mexico and southern Texas will be pulled northward by the retreating upper trof Thursday into Friday. As expected at this range, guidance is very divergent on the path of this low and it's associated moisture. This track will have a large influence on precipitation chances across the region late in the week and next weekend. This will be ironed out in the coming days.

Jones

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Clear skies and light southerly winds will prevail this morning.
Guidance is once again indicating high probabilities of patchy ground fog around AEX which has seen fog develop just before sunrise each of the last three mornings. With little change in the ongoing pattern, expect a brief period of fog between 11-13Z at AEX. While some patchy ground fog can't be ruled out elsewhere, probabilities are lower. Any fog that develops will dissipate by 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter through the day with scattered fair weather cu developing during the afternoon. A few, diurnally driven, afternoon showers and thunderstorms may occur, but probabilities are low.

Jones



MARINE
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Consistent onshore winds between 10-15 knots and seas of 2- 4 feet will prevail today and Sunday with no appreciable precipitation expected through Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase significantly Sunday night through Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast. Onshore winds will increase Wednesday and Thursday to between 20-25 knots as an area of low pressure moves up the Texas gulf coast. Seas will increase, in turn, to 3-5 feet. In addition to the increased winds, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal waters both Wednesday and Thursday.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Upper level ridging overhead will keep precipitation chances below climatological normals today with light southerly winds prevailing. The ridge will break down Sunday as a weak frontal boundary moves south through the region before stalling near the coast. This front isn't expected to produce a wind shift, but it will act as a focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.