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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 340 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers late this morning. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 340 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
onshore winds will increase today and stay moderate and somewhat breezy into Saturday. A cold front passage Saturday night will bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to water lightning. The main marine concern will be after the frontal passage by late Saturday night into Sunday as strong north winds develop with the possibility of frequent gale force wind gusts and high seas. With the strong offshore flow, water will be push away from the coast and low-water conditions for coastal lakes and bays will be possible. Late Sunday night high pressure will build in behind the front with a decrease in winds and a lowering of the seas.

FXUS64 KLCH 081746 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1146 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Wx map shows surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. with a strengthening northeast moving surface low over Oklahoma. The tightening pressure gradient expected to pick up winds near 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon, and expected to say elevated through the evening and overnight hours. A weak upper level disturbance is providing some lift with available moisture to generate isolated to scattered showers, as indicated on the radar. Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected to rise into the lower and mid 70s for highs this afternoon. Forecast is on track with no updates needed at this time.

08/DML

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Looks like an unsettled pattern to end the week and start the weekend.

A southern stream short wave noted on water vapor over lower Texas will move northeast today bringing plenty of mid and upper level moisture, as is noted already with the extensive mid and high level cloud deck, along with lift. Meanwhile, a surface low will form over the Southern Plains. This will help increase low level flow and help to quickly increase moisture across the forecast area.

PWAT values according to LAPS and GOES analysis, PWAT values already up to over the 75th percentile level of 1.16 inches and should continue to increase to the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range with mean relative humidity values in the 100H-50H level over 70 percent and spread over the forecast area as the day progresses.
Therefore, lift from the short wave should work with the moisture to produce scattered showers. Overall rainfall amounts should be light and less than 1/10 of an inch. However, MUCAPE does increase to over 500 j/kg for western sections of the forecast area with some favorable lapse rates, so some thunder may mix in for southeast Texas and west central, southwest Louisiana.

On Saturday, a northern stream upper level trough will dig down to the south into Texas and move eastward. As this system moves to the east, it will push a rather sharp cold front across the forecast area. Timing of the front is still looking a little later than previous guidance, with the front entering very late in the afternoon and pushing through during the evening and overnight hours.

The continued southerly flow ahead of the cold front will bring a warm, moist, and unstable air mass into the forecast area.
Dewpoints will increase into the upper 60s. Meanwhile, PWAT values will be near of above 1.5 inches, which is over the 90th percentile, with mean layer relative humidity values over 70 percent. Lift associated with the front should get widespread shower with embedded storm activity going that will eventually form into linear segments.

Instability looks good as the front enters the forecast area with air temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This will help bring CAPE values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range in the afternoon, however, CAPE values decrease after 00z to less than 1000 j/kg. Favorable mid level lapse rates and environment looks to be deeply sheared with 0-6km bulk values around 50 knots. So timing will be important, as locations that see the front when instability is at its highest will have a better chance of seeing strong to severe storms.

Low level and surface flow becomes more from the southwest as the front nears and parallel to the cold front. This will lessen the low level shear with 0-1 helicity values on the low side.
Therefore, in this set up, there will be a strong to severe storm risk potential as line segments form ahead of the front with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns. A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) Potential exists for mainly northwest of a Beaumont to Oberlin to Melville line, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) east of the line, as the instability is expected to decrease.

With the progressive nature of the cold front, average rainfall amounts will be between 1/2 to 1 inch area wide. The only hydro concern is with flow parallel to the front, some of the stronger cells with the higher rainfall rates may train a bit causing some localized heavy rainfall. For that reason WPC has outlined a portion of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
Potential for excessive rainfall, mainly east of a Toledo Bend to Lake Charles to Intracoastal City line.

Much cooler and drier air will quickly move in behind the front making for a rather chilly and breezy Sunday. The surface high will begin to settle in on Sunday night and with light winds and clear skies, rather cold temperatures can be expected with the possibility of a light freeze north of the I-10 corridor.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Cool and dry weather will prevail through the majority of the long term period, as surface high pressure remains the dominant synoptic feature throughout much of the work week. Early Monday, post-frontal surface high pressure will be situated nearly directly overhead, resulting in clear skies, light winds, and below normal temps for the start of the period. Highs will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s Mon afternoon, while overnight temps will dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with the exception of CENLA where lows around 30-32 degrees are expected.

Surface high pressure slides off to our east by early Tues, allowing winds to briefly become a bit more east to southeasterly overhead.
This will allow temperatures to moderate just a bit for Tuesday, with highs expected to reach into the low to mid 60s area-wide. Late Tues into early Wed, the flow aloft will begin to transition from a zonal flow to a more SWrly flow as the next trough begins to take shape out west. This will allow for an influx of cloud cover overnight Tues, which in turn will keep lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Moving into Wednesday, another large surface high will build across the central and southeastern US, where it will remain through the end of the week. This will result a mainly E to NE flow at the surface from Wed through Fri. At the same time aloft, the previously mentioned trough will carve out a rather large upper level low over the Rockies. This will result in a continued SWrly flow aloft and a steady stream of moisture overhead from Wed through Fri. All of this to say, Wed through Fri will consist of mostly cloudy skies and seasonal temps in the low to mid 60s. After a dry work week, small rain chances return on Friday as the upper low over the Rockies begins to slide east, with better rain chances likely just beyond the scope of the forecast period.

17

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

Mainly mid level BKN/OVC ceilings around 5000-8000kt expected to prevail this afternoon, gradually lowering this evening to MVFR by 06z at all sites through 15z Saturday. Weak upper level disturbance moving over the area today, giving isolated to scattered showers.
Left VCSH at all sites through 00z. South winds expected to pick up near 13-15 kts with gusts 21-23 kts this afternoon, staying elevated around 8-12 kts after 00z. The next stronger upper level trough approaching the areea will gradually increase SHRA/VCTS after 15z Saturday.

08/DML

MARINE
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure centered around the Georgia/Florida area is ridging west into the coastal waters bringing light onshore winds. The onshore winds will be increasing during the day as a surface low forms over the Southern Plains and helps tighten the gradient a bit. The moderate onshore winds and seas will persist into Saturday.

A sharp cold front will move west to east across the coastal waters on Saturday night. Bands of showers and storms will develop ahead of the front. Some of the storms may be on the strong side bringing very gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lightning.

Winds will become offshore behind the front. A decent pressure gradient will be noted as a cold high pressure system builds in bringing a much cooler air mass moving in over relatively warmer Gulf waters. This will allow for some turbulent mixing leading to strong and gusty offshore winds that will also help build high seas from Saturday night into Sunday. Sustained winds will be in the 20 to 30 knot range that will bring about definite small craft advisory conditions. Frequent gusts to 40 knots, especially over the outer waters, may bring about the need for a Gale Warning. Therefore, a Gale Watch has been issued this morning for the coastal waters between Cameron and High Island, that will likely need to be extend eastward later today.

Also, the strong northwest winds will push water away from the coast during the Sunday morning low tide cycle bring about the potential for low water conditions.

Winds will decrease by Sunday night into Monday as surface high settles over the region.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 63 78 41 / 30 20 80 70 LCH 73 65 76 45 / 30 10 70 70 LFT 73 64 79 48 / 30 10 60 90 BPT 74 66 77 45 / 30 10 50 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ450-470.

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Mermentau River entrance
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Fri -- 02:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 AM CST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:22 PM CST     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:15 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:43 PM CST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:54 PM CST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

Calcasieu Pass
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Fri -- 02:39 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM CST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:53 PM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:16 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:13 PM CST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:16 PM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

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