Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anahuac, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms that affected many locations in Southeast TX will continue to gradually shift to our east. We are still expecting to have some vort maxes pass overhead this afternoon to evening which could continue to result in areas of light rain through at least the early evening hours, in particular for areas near and south of I-10. Some coastal locations may see brief periods of moderate rain. Rain chances will decrease during the early night hours, although some isolated showers may still occur from time to time. A few more rounds of showers and storms can be expected later tonight into Friday as the mid level disturbance continues to meander within the OK/AR region and an unstable airmass remains in place. We will have sufficient moisture to support the early morning showers and storms, however, models indicate some drier air in our region during that time as well...which could help keep some of the rainfall more on the light to moderate range. We are expecting to then see an uptick in showers and storms after sunrise and into early afternoon hours, as both moisture and instability increases.
Some of these storms will once again be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the areas that received high rainfall amounts today as these soils may stay fairly saturated on Friday and any additional heavy rainfall could lead to additional flooding impacts. That being said, we may consider extending the Flood Watch for portions of Southeast TX.

Given that the timing for these showers and storms may occur during the morning commute, it is recommended to stay aware of your surroundings and keep an eye on the radar and road conditions. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Do not cross any flooded areas.

Cotto

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The long term flow pattern features mid/upper ridging over SW and SE CONUS, and a positive tilt trough extending from the Ohio River Valley down to south-coastal Texas. This pattern will keep the daily risk of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the middle portion of next week, though there are signs of a pattern change featuring more ridging over our neck of the woods by the middle to later portion of next week. The environment this weekend through early next week should remain moisture rich.
Global ensembles suggest PWATs skewing above normal through at least Monday. By Tuesday-Wednesday, ensembles are bifurcated between keeping PWATs anomalously high and dropping PWATs to near normal values. But even normal SE Texas June PWATs are pretty high. So moisture is not an issue. With the daily chance of showers/thunderstorms will also come the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Given the heavy rains we have seen this week, it may not take THAT much rain to result in localize flooding this weekend into early next week.

Regarding temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. It will remain very humid. Even the "drier" guidance shows afternoon dew points in the low 70s. Current blend utilized in our dew point grids shows afternoon values generally in the mid 70s (upper 70s near the coast). Peak afternoon heat index values are expected to be near 105 degrees (technically below heat advisory criteria). However, WBGT values are expected to peak around 86-88 during the early afternoon. These values are considered hazardous for anyone doing strenuous activity as well as those who are sensitive to heat (example elderly, young children).

Drink your water y'all!

Self

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Lower cloud decks should fill in overnight with intermittent MVFR CIGS possible during the predawn hours of Friday. Areas north of I-10 closer to KCLL and KUTS are most likely to see these lower FLs, though model guidance is starting to back off on their extend and impacts. FLs briefly improve after sunrise, though as it does the next wave of showers/thunderstorms should start to develop during the late morning. Much of this activity should be focused south of the I-10 corridor closer to Galveston & Chambers county. Terminals in the vicinity of this area may see training storms, capable of producing gusty winds and low visibility from heavier rains. North of I-10, storm activity will generally be more isolated and broadly weaker in many regards. Showers and storms taper off late Friday afternoon/early evening with MVFR decks/cigs possible again overnight.

03

MARINE
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Thunderstorms, gusty winds, and rough seas will result in hazardous marine conditions into the early afternoon today.
Conditions are expected to improve this afternoon. However, onshore flow is expected to increase again tonight into Friday morning, likely increasing seas again. Conditions will be borderline Small Craft Advisory and an advisory may be warranted at some point between now and Friday morning. The outlook for this weekend into early next week features continued light to moderate onshore flow and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Higher winds and waves possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 75 90 75 91 / 10 30 0 30 Houston (IAH) 77 91 77 92 / 10 50 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 83 89 / 20 30 10 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ235>237-335>337-436-437.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.