LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The transition to a more typical summertime pattern will begin on Sunday as the robust midlevel trough in place across the South Central CONUS will finally begin to shift to the northeast. Steady rainfall should begin to taper off on Sunday morning as this occurs, and over the course of the day broad surface high pressure will once again become situated across the Eastern Gulf. The resultant onshore flow regime promoted by this pattern, along with the presence of a mid/upper ridge that will build into the central third of the country by Monday morning, will result in decreased rainfall chances over the course of the upcoming week given the lack of available synoptic forcing. Rainfall chances through mid- week will be confined mainly to diurnal heating, as well as the inland propagation of the sea/bay breezes each afternoon. Have generally maintained 20-40% PoP values in this forecast package, with the highest rain chances concentrated along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances decrease further towards the end of the week with high pressure solidly overhead.

As one may expect with the transition to a more typical summertime pattern, temperatures will steadily increase heading into next week with highs returning to more normal values (mid-90s). With onshore moisture transport once again keeping dew points elevated, we could be looking at Heat Index values near 110 and thus will need to monitor for the potential for Heat Advisories during this time.

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Scattered SHRA with isolated TSRA expected through the afternoon.
Mention of TS was removed from most TAFs this afternoon. But afternoon TS chances are not zero, and amendments may be needed of TS development occurs in the vicinity of terminals. Mostly VFR with areas of MVFR cigs/vis expected this afternoon. A transition to more MVFR to IFR conditions are expected overnight into tomorrow morning. SHRA/TSRA chance begin to increase late overnight into the morning hours. Best chance of TS activity appears to be from IAH to the coast. Uncertainty exists regarding TS timing along with how far inland TS activity will extend tomorrow late tonight and tomorrow morning.

MARINE
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Periods of rain, heavy at times, will impact the coastal waters on both Saturday and Sunday during the earlier parts of the day. Any stronger storms may produce strong wind gusts and locally elevated seas. Rainfall chances diminish on Monday as high pressure settles into the area, promoting the return of a steady onshore flow regime. Winds and seas should generally remain below caution thresholds over this time.

Cady

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 83 73 87 / 30 50 20 60 Houston (IAH) 74 83 75 87 / 60 70 40 70 Galveston (GLS) 77 86 80 86 / 60 80 50 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ200-213-214-226- 227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.