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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 933 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday..East winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers likely.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 933 Am Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
as high pressure moves off to the east today, look for light onshore winds to resume. A long fetch of moderate east winds is forecast to set up across the gulf by midweek which will cause building seas and above normal tides during the second part of the work week. Small craft advisories are likely. An upper level storm system and associated cold front is forecasted to move into the region Friday and Friday night. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the day Friday, followed by some trailing light rain tapering off late Saturday.

FXUS64 KHGX 111714 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will begin a slow movement east during the day today, with surface to 850mb winds becoming southerly to southwesterly in nature. This will lead to a rebound in temperatures today, with highs warming into the 60s area wide. Winds will be calm out of the southeast.

Tonight's low temperatures will be a bit warmer than last nights with lows dropping into the upper 30s to 40s inland and into the 50s along the coast.

The warming trend will progress Tuesday as southwesterly flow continues. Highs will be in the 60s with some locations in the southern counties and along the coast reaching into the low 70s. A slight increase in cloud cover will occur over the southern coastal counties as a result of onshore flow and moisture convergence. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the 40s generally north of I-10.
Increased cloud cover further south will limit radiational cooling and keep lows slightly warmer with temperatures in the 50s.

Adams

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Moisture will be streaming around periphery of an expansive broad high pressure area encompassing much of the eastern US and northern Gulf coast (stretching into east Tx). So, with the exception of maybe some iso-sct shra along the coast/offshore and our far western zones...much of the region will remain dry into Thursday night. For those of you that live along the immediate coast, you might want to view the blurb about potential high tide levels in the marine discussion below.

The next western upper trof will make its way into the the Desert Southwest Wednesday and eventually into West Texas early Friday.
With an amplifying ridge on its backside, guidance is then digging the base of the trof southeast and overhead on Saturday then on into the Gulf. The combination of increasing moisture, large scale lift, and its associated frontal boundary should provide some fairly good rain chances (and maybe an elevated tstm or two) across the region Fri-Sat. The associated front itself looks to pass through late Friday night, but trailing wrap- around light rain might not fully exit til early Sunday morning. Rain totals with this system might be in the 1-2" range for many locations. 47

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions with light SE winds today and tonight. Models are hinting at a shallow llvl cloud layer developing late tonight into Tue morning...added FEW010-020 for the time being, but may end up having MVFR cigs for a few hours. Cigs, if any, are expected to scatter out and lift shortly after sunrise. Winds will turn E at 5-10 KTS Tues.

24

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

As surface high pressure moves off to the east today, look for light onshore winds to resume. A long fetch of moderate east winds is then forecast to set up across the Gulf for the remainder of the work week. Look for increasing east winds in the 15-25kt range...highest in the Gulf. Caution flags might be needed offshore as early as Tuesday afternoon, but advisories are a good bet thereafter and for the remainder of the week as seas eventually build into the 7-12ft range.

This set-up is also favorable for above normal tide levels across the Upper Texas coast and bays. Astronomical levels at high tide are inching close to 2ft MLLW. Add an additional 1.5-2ft on top of that in addition to wave action...I wouldn't be surprised if we see some minor coastal flooding at the more prone spots (Bolivar, parts of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Surfside, etc) as we get into the Thurs-Fri timeframe. Too early for any specifics, but worth watching trends. High risk of rip currents looks like a good bet along area beaches with the elevated surf on the way too.

An upper level storm system and associated cold front is forecast to move into the region Friday and Friday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the day Friday, followed by the frontal passage late Friday night and some trailing light rain tapering off late Saturday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 63 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 62 43 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 62 55 65 55 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Round Point, Trinity Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas (sub), Tide feet

Point Barrow
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Mon -- 01:33 AM CST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM CST     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:49 PM CST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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