Berwick, LA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Berwick, LA

June 17, 2024 9:50 PM CDT (02:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM
Moonrise 3:14 PM   Moonset 1:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 342 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday evening - .

Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly this evening.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 342 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis - Potential tropical cyclone number 1 in the southwestern gulf of mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the eastern mexico coast through Thursday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated Thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week. The prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 180000 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Number 1 is expected to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night. The system is expected to overall stay on sloppy and elongated side, and this will keep a rather large wind field and moisture on the north side of the system. Therefore, portions of the forecast area will have some impacts as far as heavy rainfall potential and coastal flooding, and for the coastal waters strong winds and hazardous seas.

A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect for lower southeast Texas from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts, and also what may be more concerning will be the rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour that will quickly cause urban and street flooding.

A Coastal Flood Warning will be in effect for Cameron Parish and Jefferson County with tides around 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 2.0 and 3.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.

A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes with tides between 1 and 2 feet above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.5 and 2.0 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.

A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect for southern Calcasieu Parish and southern Orange County around Sabine and Calcasieu Lake with tides around 1 foot above astronomical predicted levels, with actual tide heights at high tide time between 1.0 and 1.5 feet MWWH, and these numbers indicate inundation levels right at the coast.

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the coastal waters for easterly winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots and seas from 7 to 14 feet.

If PTC 1 becomes more compact and stronger near the center then we may see less impacts for the forecast area.

Rua

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Initial moisture plume will move across for the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, and this will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms that will produce brief tropical downpours and wind gusts around 35 mph. This activity will begin to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

On Tuesday, best deep tropical moisture plume around the large circulation of PTC 1 will move into lower southeast Texas and this area will have the higher rain chances along with higher rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along with MRH over 90 percent, so definitely tropical downpours.

With the long fetch and duration of the easterly winds, Ekman spiral affect will help pile water on the coast allowing for high tides that may bring some flooding during high tide times late at night into the morning hours. Also, with water piling along the coast, this will probably hinder proper drainage from main riverstems that combined with the heavy rainfall will also increase the flash flood threat.

On Wednesday, as the system moves further west, the heavy rain threat will also move further to the west. Should be enough moisture hanging around along with a weakness aloft to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

At the start of the longterm period, high pressure is moving in aloft and surface ridge starts building over the sern US from the ern seaboard. A final hurrah of elevated PoPs are expected for at least some of the area on Thursday with tropical disturbance spinning out in sern Texas. Moisture plume still situated in south Louisiana consisting of PWATs in the 1.70 to 1.90 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the daytime hours.

This time yesterday, guidance brought a weak erly trof across the northern Gulf causing an increase in rain chances over the next weekend. Now, guidance has a stronger sfc ridge building in from the east into Friday, causing a downward trend in diurnally driven PoPs into Saturday. The brief period of lower PoPs makes some sense considering the relatively drier airmass moving in with the ridge.
There remains the chance of a weak erly trof or low pressure center moving near Florida late in the weekend which would degrade the sfc high and allow PoPs to flood back in late Sunday and Monday.
Forecaster confidence in this solution is low to medium and thus broad changes to this extent of the forecast are very possible. For now, the NBM's PoPs for the weekend into Monday appear to capture the latest forecast trend well enough and were left as is.

Temperatures rise steadily from Thursday to the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Local 88Ds show waning convection across the forecast area...
maintained VCTS mentions in the short term for the wrn terminals to account, but not really expecting much in the way of impacts next hour or so. Conflicting signals in the guidance about the arrival time of MVFR ceilings tonight...have elected to carry them beginning overnight, but confidence is low. Next round of precip should enter the area by late morning, with coverage spreading inland/intensifying through the afternoon.

25

MARINE
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is expected to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico by Wednesday night.
The system is expected to have a rather large wind field along with a tight gradient across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will provide moderate to strong and gusty east to southeast winds in the 20 to 30 knot sustained range with gusts up to 40 knots. This will also allow for wave heights to increase in the 7 to 14 foot range. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through mid week.

As long as the system stays weak, deep moisture will be out from the north side of the system, keeping widespread showers and storms through mid week.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 85 71 90 / 30 50 20 30 LCH 74 85 75 89 / 50 80 50 70 LFT 76 86 76 91 / 50 70 30 60 BPT 76 86 75 88 / 40 80 70 70

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ073-074.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ615.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ616.

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ201-515-516-615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi50 minENE 8.9G11 77°F 82°F29.96
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi50 minENE 5.1G8 76°F 82°F29.94
EINL1 27 mi50 minENE 15G17 79°F 82°F29.9376°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi50 min 77°F 84°F29.96


Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPTN HARRY P WILLIAMS MEMORIAL,LA 6 sm54 minENE 0810 smClear Lt Rain 75°F75°F100%29.94
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Wind History graph: PTN
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Tide / Current for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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