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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots late this evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Bay waters very rough. Showers.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy fog.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Widespread dense fog.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Widespread dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 355 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..
strong southerly winds with gale force gusts and very rough seas will continue into tonight before gradually subsiding through the overnight hours and into Friday. Showers and Thunderstorms will also be on the decline, especially over the inland lakes and bays. In addition, sea fog looks likely tonight and possibly again Friday night as warm moist air resides over the cooler sea surface. Friday night and Saturday, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the region, with a mainly light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually shift back to a southerly direction by the end of the forecast period as high pressure builds over, then past, the northwest gulf of mexico.

FXUS64 KLCH 302333 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 533 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a warm front lifting slowly nwd across the cstl zones while a sfc low is noted over the TX Panhandle...otherwise high pressure centered over the sern CONUS continues providing a moist serly low-level flow across the region. Water vapor imagery shows troffing over the wrn CONUS with a cutoff low/significant shortwave moving out of the Rockies.
The combination of all these features has led to the development of widespread rainfall across the vast majority of the forecast area/adjacent coastal waters, although stronger convection has been limited by a dry layer aloft and a definite lack of instability/CAPE per 18z KLCH sounding. That being said, some embedded heavier convection has managed to develop behind the warm front, primarily over the coastal waters where instability/CAPE has been more readily available.

In the near term, the Wind Advisory already in effect has been extended for the ern zones past the original midnight expiration time based on latest guidance showing criteria force gusts continuing...the new expiration time for these areas is 09z/03CST.
In addition, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Jefferson County (south and east of I-10) and Cameron Parish (all) as well as areas generally surrounding Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes in Orange County and Calcasieu Parish due to an encroaching marine fog as mid 60s dewpoints over upper 50s/around 60 SSTs continues to get pushed inland on the stiff serly/srly winds. Skycams from around the Golden Triangle and Lake Areas have already shown this fog pushing well inland today and this problem will likely get worse tonight as inland temps cool.

Otherwise not many changes to the inherited grids/zones this afternoon. Rain/heavier showers/storms will continue through this evening before departing the forecast area from west to east late this evening through the overnight hours as the attendant shortwave pulls away from the region. High res guidance indicates that as we move through the evening, higher CAPE air is progged to surge nwd with the frontal boundary, which could open the door to a round of severe weather primarily this evening and into the overnight as forecast soundings continue to show abundant low- level shear. Therefore, much of the forecast area remains in a slight risk for severe weather (primarily tornadoes and damaging wind gusts) through tonight per SPC. Similarly, the risk for excessive rainfall should expand nwd as the stronger convection/heavier rains spread more inland later..and thus a slight risk for flash flooding rains remains in place per WPC.

The low over the TX Panhandle will gradually pull a weak cool front into the area tomorrow, with initially just some lingering showers/few storms expected over our far sern zones. However the boundary is progged to slow and as another disturbance rounds the wrn CONUS trof and pushes into the region, accompanied by a good slug of Gulf moisture, another round of showers/storms is expected to spread across the forecast area from the Gulf. This activity will gradually start moving out of the area by late Saturday night.

25

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The long wave trough axis will be roughly over the region at the end of the weekend with moisture streaming northeast across Southeast LA into the SE states. A cold front will also be departing the forecast area early Sunday with a drier air mass filtering in, however a few light showers may still be possible across the coastal waters and into lower Acadiana which may still be under the stream of Pacific moisture to start the day.

Early next week, a surface ridge will shift east across the gulf coast with pleasant, near normal to slightly warmer than normal conditions stretching into mid week. The onshore flow will resume by late Monday as the ridge center exits east and another front approaches.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley with a short wave. This will swing a cold front through the local area, however no precip is expected at this time. High pressure will dip south through the plains decreasing temperatures for the second half of the week to slightly below normal.

05

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Widespread showers are ongoing across the region along with strong southeast winds and low cloud ceilings. This is all occurring ahead of a low pressure center swinging across the region. A period of thunderstorms is expected from about 00 to 03Z when better wind shear starts to work into the region.

Otherwise, on and off showers and all other impactful conditions (winds and low ceilings) will prevail through at least midnight tonight. At this point, the low starts moving to the north and the pressure gradient can relax. Winds will diminish after 06Z which should allow ceilings to fall further and for fog to develop.
Especially at LCH and BPT where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 15Z tomorrow morning.

The final hurrah of showers will be a line of heavy showers and some thunderstorms that moves through from west to east after 06Z.
Timing of the end of SHRA will follow this line, ending at LFT and ARA sometime around 12Z.

MARINE
Issued at 345 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The only changes to the inherited headlines on the coastal waters this afternoon was the addition of the marine Dense Fog Advisory late tonight for the near shore waters west of Intracoastal City (although guidance shows dense fog potential mainly west of Cameron) as well as Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes. Otherwise, the Gale Warning continues through its expiration time of midnight tonight with SCA conditions expected thereafter.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 57 76 58 72 / 80 40 90 30 LCH 63 74 63 73 / 90 50 90 30 LFT 63 78 66 77 / 90 40 90 60 BPT 63 75 61 75 / 80 50 80 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ027-030-031-073- 074-141-142-241-242.

Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for LAZ028-029-032-033-044- 045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LAZ073-074.

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for LAZ073-074-241.

TX...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ615.

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455.

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-450-452.

Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ470-472-475.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

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