Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 12:00 PM   Moonset 12:58 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 349 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Today - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 349 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Light offshore flow will prevail today before turning onshore this evening as high pressure slides east of the region. Shower and Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with light onshore flow.

FXUS64 KLCH 151119 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 619 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Surface high pressure nearly overhead this morning is yielding clear skies and calm winds. Saturated soils are providing enough moisture to once again produce patchy dense fog at this hour with a couple of sights reporting visibilities of less than a mile.
Don't expect dense fog to become widespread enough to warrant an advisory, but will continue to monitor trends through the morning.
Visibilities should improve by 14Z as temperatures warm and mixing gets underway. The remainder of the day is shaping up to be rather pleasant, albeit a bit warm. Dewpoints in the lower 60s continue to be a welcome reprieve from the upper 70s that were being observed just a few days ago.

Another potentially hazardous weather event appears to be setting up from Thursday afternoon through late Friday in two waves. The first will be an upper level disturbance moving up the Texas gulf coast and wrapping into a deepening shortwave moving across the southern plains. There is good agreement amongst guidance that moisture surging ahead of the wave will drive PWAT values to or above 2 inches priming the atmosphere for torrential rainfall producing storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. WPC's moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been maintained this morning as area soils and waterways remain full and flash flooding could begin quickly. Severe weather parameters aren't particularly impressive with this first wave of activity, but a couple of storms capable of damaging straight line winds can't be ruled out.

The second wave of convection will push through Friday as a weak frontal boundary develops along the steadily deepening shortwave.
Guidance is much more variable on severe weather parameters with this wave, but some are depicting considerably more favorable shear and instability compared to this time yesterday. After collaboration with SPC, a slight risk was introduced across the entire region for Friday and should there be better consensus, further upgrades wouldn't be surprising for future forecast packages. In addition to the severe weather threat, convection will again be capable of producing torrential rainfall on top of whatever falls Thursday maintaining a significant flash flood threat.

A few showers could linger Friday night into early Saturday morning within the wraparound moisture behind the fropa, but these should be lighter and with a much lower severe potential. Little change in airmass will occur with the fropa other than a very modest drop in dewpoint Saturday with afternoon highs still climbing into the upper 80s area wide.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The long term period starts with a few showers/storms from Friday's system lingering over the Atchafalaya Basin before departing Saturday morning as the associated low aloft/sfc frontal boundary make their way out of the region. With no real change of air mass, Saturday looks to remain slightly on the warm side with highs generally in the 85-90 degree range.

Thereafter, the remainder of the long term is progged to be dry as ridging develops aloft. With rising heights aloft, expect a gradual warming with highs generally in the lower 90s by the end of the period. RH values will also be on the rise as sfc high pressure swings past the area and a return flow off the Gulf develops in its wake. Likewise, this warming trend will also occur with overnight lows as mins are expected to run in the 70s by early next week on account of the increasing dewpoints.

25

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Patchy dense fog being observed presently will dissipate by 14Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter through the day. Light, northwesterly winds will prevail through the day becoming variable overnight. Areas of dense fog may develop again during the early morning hours Thursday.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail today before turning onshore this evening as high pressure slides east of the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with light onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 64 86 65 / 0 0 40 90 LCH 89 69 85 70 / 0 0 70 70 LFT 89 68 87 73 / 0 0 40 60 BPT 89 70 83 73 / 0 10 70 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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