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GMZ765 Expires:202312120815;;298827 Fzus52 Ktae 111913 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida big bend and eastern panhandle national weather service tallahassee fl 213 pm est Mon dec 11 2023
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-120815- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 213 pm est Mon dec 11 2023 /113 pm cst Mon dec 11 2023/
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters very rough.
Thursday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters very rough.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters very rough.
Friday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters very rough.
Friday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 213 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..
seas should subside through today, returning to 2-4 feet by tonight. High pressure will build Tuesday, increasing the pressure gradient, and bringing advisory conditions by Wednesday. A gulf low is expected to develop by mid-week which will significantly increase winds and seas. Wind gusts will be near gale force by Thursday and maintain so heading into the weekend. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms will be possible for the weekend.

FXUS62 KJAX 112324 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 624 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Due northerly light winds and continued cool advection resulting in below normal temps today with highs mostly in the 50s to around lower 60s. The high pressure over the southeast states today will transition to the Appalachians tonight with the low level flow becoming more north-northeast, with some stratocumulus affecting areas south of Mayport through Flagler Beach after about 3-4 AM.
Otherwise, some increase in high clouds anticipated through the night, especially over northeast FL and will begin to reach into southeast GA after midnight. The high clouds will have some slight impact on low temps tonight, but not so much for southeast GA.
Looks like a freeze warning (albeit light freeze for 2 hours) is warranted for a few inland southeast GA counties, but rest of the area in the frost advisory looks good at this time where lows around 32 to 35 degrees are expected.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will shift slowly ENE from the southern Appalachians to eastern NC on Tuesday with light northerly winds veering more NNE and becoming elevated at the coast 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The high will keep conditions dry with cirrus clouds present overhead due to a jet streak just NE of the area while few to scattered cumulus will move onshore the NE FL coast. Highs will be about 3-5 degrees warmer with near 60 degree reading in SE GA and the Suwannee Valley while in the mid 60s over much of NE FL and upper 60s over north central FL and the southern St Johns river basin.

Tuesday night, north to northeast winds will allow for a range of low temperatures with upper 30s NW of Waycross to the mid/upper 50s over the NE FL coast with scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds shifting onshore and spreading farther inland.

Broad ridging aloft will shift into the western Atlantic waters on Wednesday with an upstream shortwave trough digging SE from the Great Lakes and upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley and interior NE states. This will support a dry cold front swinging SE into the Mid Atlantic states from the Midwest and high pressure ridging off the Carolina coast will allow for NE onshore flow with weak coastal troughing forming early in the day. Low level stratocumulus clouds will increase as moisture returns over the FL peninsula and into NE FL near 1.00 inch of precipitable water and a few light showers may arrive onshore the NE FL coast from St Augustine southward into Flagler county. The increased clouds will keep highs below normal in the 60s for most areas with upper 60s to lower 70s over north central FL and the southern St Johns river basin.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

The period will begin with strong ridging aloft forming over the upper Midwest into the mid MS valley regions that will press east into the Appalachians Friday. This will cause high pressure to the north to rebuild in the wake of dry cold front sinking south and east off the SE U.S. coast. The high will build to a 1040 mb high over over the central Appalachians which will tighten our local pressure gradient through Friday with breezy to potentially windy conditions at the coast. The pinched gradient will keep a coastal trough over the area waters and isolated to scattered showers will move onshore the NE FL coast and into the St Johns river basin Thursday and Friday.

The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge in the timing and placement of the evolution for the next shortwave that will swing SE from the lower MS valley into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model develops a surface low faster over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and brings it across the FL peninsula with heavier showers moving through the area sooner that the ECMWF model which develops a low farther south and east near the FL keys and south FL and delays heavier rainfall until Sunday afternoon before shifting northward into the area. Both will continue to keep enhanced onshore flow and breezy conditions to our area, especially at the coast where winds may remain gusty with high surf and dangerous beach conditions. For the weekend forecast, will increase shower coverage gradually from the coast to inland areas late Saturday into early Sunday with highest coverage along the coast Sunday afternoon as the ECMWF model favors later timing with the low moving NE off of the central FL coast. Depending on the track of the coastal low, some isolated, embedded storms may be possible over NE FL along with potentially locally heavy rainfall, but too early for exact amounts.

Monday, the shortwave in both models should be exiting to the NE with amplified ridging aloft of the central US and cause surface high pressure to eventually build in from the NW by late in the day. Will keep scattered showers in the forecast as both models are slow to lift the low away to the NE with some possible wrap around moisture lingering.

High temperatures will remain a little below normal in the low/mid 60s for most areas and warm to near normal levels Saturday and Sunday before cooling again Monday as the low exits and high pressure slowly builds in from the NW. Lows will begin below normal over inland SE GA and above normal along the NE FL coast, then warm to above normal area wide this weekend and Monday into the 50s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light and variable winds overnight. Northeasterly winds quickly increase to around 10 kts by 15Z. Coastal TAF sites will be breezier with gusts around 20 kts possible.

MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Lighter north winds into tonight, but then ramps up again Tuesday as high pressure stays well to the north and strengthens, while a frontal boundary stalls well to our south. While the current small craft advisory will expire, another advisory is likely by Tuesday night, with a gale watch/warning possibly needed Thursday morning into Saturday morning. Peak seas so far are expected to reach about 10-15 ft by Thu-Fri time frame. Occasional scattered showers will develop by Wednesday as moisture further increases.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will become high to very high over the next few days as the onshore flow increases and become persistent. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected to prevail by late Tuesday and continue into the weekend. Criteria for high surf may be met late Wednesday or early Thursday morning.
Beach erosion and some minor coastal flooding will be possible by later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 33 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 42 61 48 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 36 63 47 64 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 45 65 57 69 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 35 65 49 66 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 37 67 52 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ020-021-023- 024-030-035-122-222.

GA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ134>136- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132-133-149.

AM...None.

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Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:24 PM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:37 PM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Pepperfish Keys
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Mon -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:19 PM EST     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:32 PM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet

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