Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bell, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:21PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 12:24 PM EST (17:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ765 Expires:202002182130;;725472 Fzus52 Ktae 181338 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 838 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-775-182130- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 838 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020 /738 Am Cst Tue Feb 18 2020/
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Chance of showers through the night.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Friday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 838 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis.. Favorable marine conditions (outside of patchy to areas of dense fog today, tonight, and tomorrow morning) prevail through Thurs afternoon before quickly deteriorating to advisory levels west-to-east Thurs evening from a cold front. Very strong high pressure behind the front will create a tight pressure gradient, resulting in breezing winds up to 25 knots (with gale-force gusts possible) and wave heights building up to 7 feet or higher through Sat morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bell, FL
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location: 29.76, -82.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 181500 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1000 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

UPDATE.

Remaining patchy fog will lift this morning. Breaks of sunshine this afternoon, are expected to help destabilize the airmass. The combination of diurnal instability, a lingering frontal boundary, and sea breeze interactions are expected to result in precipitation this afternoon, mainly over the eastern third of the forecast area, with isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be well above normal this afternoon, with the coolest readings near the coast, due to the relatively cooler coastal waters.

PREV DISCUSSION [644 AM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

A weak surface boundary was lifting northward as a warm front across southeast Georgia early this morning, and will be near a Douglas to Alma to Jesup line around 12Z. A weak shortwave will move along the northern Gulf coast and the frontal boundary before daybreak, and isolated to widely scattered showers and sprinkles will continue to move into the area from the west, especially across southeast Georgia. Scattered showers will continue to move across interior southeast Georgia through much of the day. Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will prevail across the area through the rest of the night, with lows this morning in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Surface to 850 mb ridge will remain across central Florida today, leading to south to southwesterly low level flow. Temperatures will warm to well above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s across southeast Georgia and near 80 to the mid 80s across northeast Florida. Sea breeze boundaries will move inland this afternoon due to the warm temperatures, with the sea breeze merger between Highway 301 and I-95. Scattered showers are forecast to develop along the sea breeze collision, and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

An area of low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes northeastward into Canada today and tonight. Strong high pressure will dive southeastward into the northern Plains today, and a cold front will move through the Southeast. The cold front will then move just north of the area by Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will end in the evening, with rain chances increasing again across interior southeast Georgia overnight as the frontal boundary approaches. Overnight lows will be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday].

The frontal boundary over the southeastern US weakens on Wednesday as it slowly dips southeastward. Scattered showers spread in from the north with the highest rain chances over southeast Georgia. An area of low pressure will move east along this boundary on Thursday increasing rain chances as the front pushes south across the area. Widespread showers ahead of the front move through the area Thursday into Thursday night. Above average temperatures continue on Wednesday with continued southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Highs on Wednesday will range from the low 70s over southeast Georgia to the mid 80s over central Florida. Temperatures begin to cool on Thursday with the front moving through.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday].

With the cold front south of the region by Friday, a cold, dry airmass moves into the region. High pressure builds in from the northwest on Friday and moves off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday keeping most of the area dry through the weekend. A coastal trough develops on Friday allowing for showers over the waters to move onshore. Another system moves through on Monday bringing rain chances to the region. Temperatures drop on Friday with lows falling to around freezing over inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures begin to rebound to around seasonable this weekend.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Wednesday]

LIFR conditions will prevail through the mid morning hours before improving. VFR conditions are forecast across much of the region by the mid afternoon, with showers in the vicinity of the TAF sites. Light winds will become south to southeast at 5-10 knots, winds will then diminish this evening. Fog and low stratus is possible once again tonight after midnight.

MARINE.

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast and a frontal boundary to the north northwest today and tonight. Weak frontal boundary will move back south into area and stall Wednesday into Wednesday night. An inverted trough will develop in the coastal waters early Thursday, which will move to the east Thursday afternoon and night. High pressure will build from the north northwest Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will be to the north Saturday, then northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Rip Currents . Moderate risk northeast Florida today. Low risk southeast Georgia today.

HYDROLOGY.

Minor to moderate river flooding continues for the Altamaha River basin.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 74 61 72 48 53 / 40 30 50 70 80 SSI 68 60 70 52 58 / 30 40 40 60 70 JAX 78 62 79 56 64 / 50 50 30 50 60 SGJ 76 62 78 59 68 / 30 50 20 40 30 GNV 82 61 82 58 72 / 40 20 20 30 30 OCF 84 62 83 60 77 / 30 10 20 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 39 mi25 min S 11 G 13 70°F 1021.6 hPa (+0.3)66°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 44 mi85 min ESE 5.1 G 6 66°F 1022.2 hPa (+1.3)66°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 78 mi91 min E 2.9 G 5.1 65°F 1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL16 mi30 minS 710.00 miFair76°F67°F76%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCTY

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----S3
G144
E3SE3E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmN4NE3CalmCalmE3--SE4S5S7
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida
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Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:45 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:58 PM EST     1.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.50.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.30.81.41.82.12.121.91.81.71.81.92.12.32.52.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:40 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:53 PM EST     1.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.510.50-0.3-0.3-0.10.30.91.41.82.12.121.91.81.71.81.92.12.32.42.52.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.