LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

On Saturday, we'll be firmly in second summer with ridging aloft continuing to build overhead in the wake of Francine...and it looks like we'll be stuck in a ridge-y pattern for quite awhile.
Temperatures on Saturday will be downright hot with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. College Station (Howdy Ags!) hasn't been in the upper 90s since the first few days of the month, but model trends are pointing a toasty weekend back in the upper 90s. Trends continue to look warm and dry well into next week as the GEFS ensemble suite shows 850mb temperatures around the 99th percentile through midweek, but there'll at least be a few attempts to bring us some isolated rain chances. Late Saturday into Sunday, a plume of moisture moves in from the northeast, but with a fairly robust subsidence inversion layer aloft...it'd be surprising to see this result in anything more than isolated light showers.

The next round of moisture comes early next week from the west, but even in spite of that the rain chances have been on a steady downward trend...why is that? Well it's related to the first sentence. The mid-level remnants of Francine and/or possible development along the coast of the Carolinas develop into a cutoff low over the eastern CONUS. While that's going on, an upper level trough with an embedded upper level low moves in from the western CONUS. Model trends are pointing towards the potential for an omega block pattern to develop next week which would keep the Southern Plains in a perpetual ridging aloft pattern for much of next week.
So while we can't rule out isolated showers, don't be surprised if rain chances continue their downward trend. Temperatures will stay on the warm side through next week with highs firmly in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Just for giggles, I looked into some of the long range NBM probabilities and most of Southeast Texas has a greater than 50% chance of seeing high temperatures about 90°F
So yeah
there's that.

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with mostly clear skies. There may be some patchy fog reducing visibility to 5-6 mi during the predawn hours at CXO and UTS, but any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Light and variable winds will continue through the night becoming west- northwesterly through the morning at around 6-10kt. The seabreeze will cause a southerly wind shift in the afternoon/evening at GLS, LBX, SGR, and HOU.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Benign marine conditions will persist through the weekend and into next week with light winds and low seas. Light northerly to northeasterly winds will continue into tonight and then transition to southerly Friday onward. Wind directions will vary between southwesterly and southeasterly throughout the day each day after Friday. Isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out going into early next week in the Gulf waters.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 95 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 86 78 87 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.