Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butler Beach, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- Red Flag Warning for all of Southeast GA away from the coast and Northeast Florida west of the St Johns river

- Critically low minimum humidity values inland

- Elevated onshore flow with gusty and hazardous coastal conditions

Cold front has exited to near I-4 over central FL early this AM as high pressure is centered over the ArklaMiss region. Northerly winds 10-15 mph over north central FL and I-95 corridor to the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph at the beaches as the high wedges down the GA and Carolina coast. Winds Will turn more northeasterly as we approach sunrise with winds 10-15 mph closer to the coast and 8-12 mph west of highway 301.

Today, the base of a mid to upper level trough will move offshore of the SE US coast while strong ridging moves into the region in the wake of the trough. This will support strong high pressure building in across the deep south, continuing a tight pressure gradient today between the high to the NW and cold front exiting southward along the FL peninsula into southern FL. The gradient will create strong onshore NE winds picking up after 8AM to due to strong mixing 15-20 mph over NE FL and around 15 mph over SE GA locations. Gust will be up to 30 mph along the NE FL coast/Johns river and gusting to 25 mph across inland areas.

Much drier air will advect into the area will deliver very low dewpoints as low as the mid 20s across inland SE GA during the day and into the 30s just inland of the SE GA coast which, in turn, will create very low relative humidity values of 15-20 percent across interior SE GA. Dewpoints will fall into the 30s and low to mid 40 along and west of the St Johns river and send minimum relative humidity values down to 20-25 percent from US-17 westward. As a result of the very low humidity and elevated winds, dangerous wildfire conditions expected today for inland SE GA and inland NE FL where a Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 8AM to 8PM. After sunset, gradually subsiding winds and cooling temperatures will raise dewpoints and humidity levels over the area.

Highs on today will be below normal along the coast and I-95 with mid to upper 70s, warming to near normal values inland to near 80 degrees.

Tonight, low level ridging just to the NW of the area and mostly clear skies will support radiational cooling to below normal values with lows down into the mid to upper 40s over most of inland SE GA and inland NE FL with low 50s along I-95 and north central FL and values closer to normal in the mid 50s along much of the coast with upper 50s to near 60 south of Saint Augustine along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- A Fire Weather Watch is in place for inland NE FL on Tuesday

- Critically low minimum humidity values for inland locations into midweek

Ridging aloft will continue to shift into the region, bringing high pressure to build north of the area. The severe dry conditions will persist as precipitation is not expected. Northeasterly onshore flow on Tuesday will steadily transition to southeasterly by Wednesday Night. The northeasterly flow will bring breezy, gusty at times, conditions on Tuesday across inland NE FL and coastal locations, which will do little to alleviate the fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather Watch is in place for Tuesday for inland locations of NE FL.
By Wednesday onshore flow continues as winds will be from the east- southeast. The continued onshore flow will bring some low-level moisture onshore across the coast and towards the St Johns River basin. But critically dry conditions will remain across inland locations of SE GA and along the Suwannee Valley region.

With the onshore flow, daytime highs along the coast expected in the upper 70s, while away from the coast daytime highs will be in the lower/mid 80s. Overnight Lows will be in the 50s, with some coastal locations in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

-Dry conditions persist through work week

-Isolated T'storms possible Saturday and Sunday

-Warming Trend this Period

With the ridging aloft shifting offshore from midweek and into the weekend. Warm temperatures will build to above seasonal norms once again past midweek, with temperatures nearing record highs during the weekend. Dry conditions will see little relief on Thursday/Friday, but the upcoming weekend may bring the next chance for any precipitation as PWATs may see a bit of an uptick. Guidance shows another cold front pushing towards the region by the weekend, but question remains to see if there is enough moisture over the area to have any showers or storms develop. At this time currently have a forecast POPs of 20-30 percent, with the sea breezes providing the forcing for any development.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
VFR conditions will persist through the 06Z TAF period with breezy northerly winds near 10 knots and gusty at the coast 15-20 knots as a cold front exits well to the south as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds shift to northeasterly between now and 12Z with increasing winds through 12-15Z to 15-20 knots gusting to 25 knots inland and 25-30 knots along the coast. Skies will trend sunny this morning at the duval county and SSI terminals with high clouds lingering over GNV SGJ through 00Z.

Winds will subside to 8-12 knots after 21Z and under 6 knots after 00Z as high pressure ridge settles into the area from the northwest.

MARINE

A cold front will bring a surge of northeast winds following the frontal passage through Monday night. High pressure building in from the northwest this morning in the wake of a cold frontal passage will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters today into tonight. Winds and waves subside gradually tonight with high pressure building across the area waters into mid-week. Easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday will become southeasterly Thursday into Friday with southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching the waters this weekend with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents and Surf:

High risk of rip currents today with elevated onshore winds from the northeast and surf breakers up to 4-6 feet. A moderate to high risk is anticipated for Tuesday with easterly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND - Much Of Inland Northeast Florida Through Midweek

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Thursday

Strong high pressure builds in from the northwest with breezy northeast winds near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph and critical MinRH values 15-20 percent will create dangerous wildfire conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of inland Southeast GA in Northeast FL locations west of the St. Johns River. Additionally the breezy surface and transport winds will create high dispersions Today. Dry and breezy conditions will again be present across inland NE FL on Tuesday, continuing the critical fire weather concerns for these locations. A Fire Weather Watch is in place on Tuesday for the inland locations of NE FL.

The high pressure over the area Tuesday and Wednesday will gradually move east of the area Thursday into Friday. This will lead to the breezy east to northeast winds to diminish on Wednesday with daily Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland into Friday. Dry conditions will persist and critical MinRH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of northeast FL each day this week. Areas to widespread high daytime dispersions are expected daily into at least Thursday due to high mixing heights and moderate transport wind speeds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: There will be potential for Localized "superfog" near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 47 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 54 75 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 76 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 57 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 80 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-132-136-137- 140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ023-030-031-132-136-137-140-225-232-236- 237-240-340-425.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264- 350-364.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452- 454-470-472.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ474.