Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butler Beach, FL

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A potent shortwave trough migrating across the Great Lakes region on Saturday and Saturday night will drive a cold front into the southeastern states. Meanwhile, flow aloft will shift to northwesterly across our area as ridging builds into the lower Mississippi Valley, and this flow will advect a weaker shortwave trough towards the southeastern seaboard late in the day. PWAT values will rise to the 1.25-1.5 inch range during the afternoon hours as a mid-level ridge sinks southward over the FL peninsula.
Just enough moisture and instability will be in place for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop late in the afternoon through the early evening hours, mainly for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301 as mesoscale boundaries such as the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes collide, along with the St.
Johns River breeze. Otherwise, near record high temperatures will continue at inland locations, where highs will soar to the lower 90s. An afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal highs generally in the mid 80s. Dewpoints are again expected to crash to the upper 50s and lower 60s at inland locations during the afternoon hours, keeping afternoon heat index values close to the actual air temperatures.

Shortwave troughing will shift offshore on Saturday evening, with any convection that manages to develop in the late afternoon hours dissipating before midnight. Otherwise, support aloft for the frontal boundary will begin to wane as troughing progresses across New England, resulting in this boundary slowing its forward progress as it approaches inland southeast GA. Lows will only fall to the low and mid 60s inland, ranging to the upper 60s to around 70 at the coast.

Higher moisture levels will pool across our region on Sunday as the frontal boundary moves slowly across southeast GA, with this feature reaching the I-10 corridor during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, high pressure building over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the wake of this frontal boundary will begin to wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the afternoon hours, with breezy northeasterly winds developing from north to south along the I-95 corridor as the afternoon progresses. This wind surge, the presence of the frontal boundary, and higher moisture levels should spark isolated to widely scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours. The exception may be north central FL, as forcing and deeper moisture may remain too far to the north for convective initiation. Hot temperatures will continue across our area, with lower 90s again forecast at inland locations, while breezy onshore winds during the afternoon hours keep coastal highs in the low to mid 80s.

The frontal boundary will stall along the I-10 corridor on Sunday night, and another weak shortwave trough may approach our area from the northwest overnight. Isolated to widely scattered convection may continue to develop into the evening and overnight hours as forcing aloft increases. Lows will again only fall to the mid and upper 60s inland, ranging to the upper 60s and lower 70s at coastal locations.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The stalled frontal boundary and shortwave troughing migrating across our area on Monday may set the stage for scattered convection and some beneficial rainfall for our region. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will tighten our local pressure gradient, and breezy northeasterly low level winds will tend to develop activity near the Atlantic coast during the morning hours, with convection then shifting inland during the afternoon. Breezy onshore winds and increased cloud cover will tend to keep coastal highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while highs around 90 continue along the I-75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL.

Convection should end on Monday evening as the aforementioned shortwave trough dives to the southeast of our region. An onshore breeze will keep coastal lows around 70, while inland lows fall to the 60s. The frontal boundary will dissolve over our area on Tuesday, with just enough moisture around keeping isolated to widely scattered convection possible at inland locations. Onshore winds will again keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at coastal locations, while highs continue to climb to the upper 80s to around 90 along the I-75 corridor.

High pressure will then weaken as it slides off the southeastern seaboard by midweek. Ridging aloft will begin to build northeastward from the Caribbean towards the FL peninsula, with highs climbing back into the 80s at coastal locations, with lower 90s inland. Lows will remain in the 60s area-wide from Tuesday night through Thursday night. Another weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states towards next Friday, possibly igniting scattered afternoon and evening convection ahead of this boundary.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

VFR conditions continue this evening with winds out of the southeast easing below 10 kts a little bit after sunset. Winds will get light enough at GNV and VQQ for fog formation around 09z with visibilities dropping into MVFR at VQQ. Winds shift to be more southerly overnight, becoming southwesterly at inland locations by the afternoon. Winds will be breezy along the coast out of the southeast at 10g15-17kt. Chances for rain increase in the late afternoon and towards the end of the TAF period but confidence is too low as to location and intensity to include at this time.



MARINE
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High pressure located northeast of area waters will maintain a ridge of high pressure across the Florida Peninsula through today, which will weaken and shift southeastward on Saturday. A cold front will move across the region Saturday Night, bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across waters through the beginning of next week, but especially on Monday as the front settles just south of FL waters. A ridge of high pressure will wedge down the eastern seaboard Sunday. The associated high will move southeast off the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday and east of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday, repositioning the ridge of high pressure and gradually veering winds over the waters.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate through Saturday with a mostly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Southerly surface and transport winds on Saturday morning will shift to southwesterly for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Elevated mixing heights and gradually strengthening transport speeds will create high daytime dispersion values across inland portions of southeast GA, with good values forecast elsewhere, except for coastal locations and north central FL, where lighter speeds will yield fair values. Hot temperatures this weekend will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at inland locations on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Surface and transport winds will shift to northwesterly by Sunday morning, while northeasterly surface and transport winds develop for locations along and east of the U.S.-301 corridor during the afternoon hours. Good daytime dispersion values are expected at inland locations on Sunday afternoon, with fair values forecast at coastal locations. Easterly surface and transport winds will prevail on Monday, with breezy onshore surface winds forecast at coastal locations.

CLIMATE
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

FRI 4/25 SAT 4/26 SUN 4/27

JAX 92 (1958) 92 (2011) 94 (1986)

GNV 93 (1896) 93 (1908) 96 (2011)

AMG 91 (1958) 93 (1986) 96 (1986)

CRG 91 (2006) 91 (1989) 93 (2011)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 90 64 90 / 0 10 10 30 SSI 68 84 70 82 / 0 20 10 20 JAX 64 89 64 90 / 0 30 30 30 SGJ 65 85 68 86 / 0 10 20 20 GNV 62 91 63 92 / 0 10 10 20 OCF 62 91 63 92 / 0 10 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.