Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 4:04 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 339 Am Cdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late. Lake waters choppy. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 339 Am Cdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate east to southeast winds can be expected today, as a weak frontal boundary meanders slowly south over the region. Showers and a few Thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area. The front will move offshore by early Sunday, with strong offshore winds developing in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing. Onshore flow will redevelop by Tuesday as surface high pressure moves over the eastern seaboard.

FXUS64 KLCH 200946 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 446 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Warm and muggy conditions are noted across the area, south of a frontal boundary draped across central LA into E TX. Moisture continues to increase across the region, with PWATs up to around 1.5 inches per the KLCH 00Z sounding.

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a swath of moisture streaming across across TX toward the lower MS Valley, which was occurring ahead of a shortwave trough over the SW US. This was yielding widespread cloud cover across the area, while a few light showers were noted on KLCH radar across central and southern LA.

The combination of low clouds and patchy fog will continue through the early morning hours, with a few sprinkles in the mix as well.
But the better rain chances are not expected to affect the area until late this afternoon into this evening as the SW US trough moves closer to the area.

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SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Rain chances will remain generally limited early today, although a few light showers cannot be ruled out. Broad ascent will begin to develop later today as the shortwave trough moves into TX, with convection forming and spreading into SE TX during the afternoon.
Convection will continue to spread east across the area during the evening and overnight hours as more robust lift accompanies the trough as it moves into the region. The frontal boundary will slowly meander south, and most of the convection that develops should remain elevated to the north side of the boundary.

Severe parameters (lapse rates, instability) appear greatest this afternoon, but the better support for deep convection will be focused west of the area. However, an isolated strong storm capable of strong winds or isolated hail could slip into our SE TX counties before weakening late this afternoon or early evening.
Otherwise, forecast soundings show increasing deep layer shear developing during the evening and overnight as a midlevel speed max translates over the area. This should be sufficient to support updrafts capable of producing thunder, but lapse rates and instability appear too limited to generate stronger storms with the arrival of the disturbance aloft.

The risk for heavy rainfall and possible isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding continues to be the primary hazard tonight into early Sunday. Moisture will be plentiful with PWATs increasing to 1.7-1.8 inches (well above the 90th percentile and close to the seasonal maximum). Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with high precipitation rates.
While convection should be fairly progressive, there is the potential for some training as storms track along and just north of the quasi-stationary surface boundary. The axis of highest QPF remains oriented from SE TX north of the Houston metro northeast across N LA, but any deviation southward would place these higher amounts of 2+ inches into our region (where heavy rainfall occurred last week). The latest WPC ERO for Day 1 now paints areas northwest of a line from Alexandria to Sour Lake in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall, with a MRGL (level 1 out of 4) elsewhere with the exception of the Acadiana region. At this point, have opted not to issue a Flash Flood Watch for our parishes and counties in the SLGT risk area as deterministic NBM QPF remains relatively low (storm totals between 1-1.5 inches across our northern tier of zones), while CAM guidance and HRRR probs for 2+ inch amounts suggest an isolated risk.

Convection will shift east across the area by Sunday morning, with rain chances tapering off from west to east through the afternoon as the trough moves east of the lower MS Valley. This trough, along with a northern stream shortwave digging southeast in its wake, will help propel the front offshore and allow much cooler high pressure to build into the region. This will lead to some brisk northeast winds on Sunday, while lingering cloud cover and decent CAA will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s across all but the immediate coast. Some of the coolest temperatures of the period will occur Sunday night into Monday morning as the ridge axis slides over the region, with lows falling into the lower 40s across central LA, and to around 50 degrees along the I-10 corridor.

Dry weather will prevail into the early part of the workweek, with temperatures expected to rebound into the 70s Monday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

24

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The long-term forecast will start with the region firmly under the influence of high pressure. After the passage of the cold front on Sunday, cold air advection will push a continental airmass into our region. This will lead to slightly cooler than average temperatures on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s and lows still in the 50s.
For those who enjoy cooler weather, enjoy it while it lasts.

On Wednesday, our winds will have flipped, and warm, moist Gulf air will be pulled north across the southeastern US. Winds will remain onshore for the rest of the forecast period, and we will see robust moisture return with our PWATs going from the bottom 10th percentile on Tuesday to the 75th percentile by Thursday. Temperatures will also rise, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s for the rest of the forecast period. Low will also rise, reaching the 70s by midweek. A few weak short-wave troughs will increase rain chances throughout the week, but not by much, with PoPs staying below 30%. This week, we could start to see the return of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. 

14/Slaughter



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR ceilings will develop at most terminals through the early morning with patchy IFR ceilings possible through sunrise. Winds will be light tonight and gradually veer northeast at all terminals by the end of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible by the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light to moderate east to southeast winds can be expected today, as a weak frontal boundary meanders slowly south over the region.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area. The front will move offshore by early Sunday, with strong offshore winds developing in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing. Small Craft Advisories are expected to be in effect during this timeframe. Winds will diminish through the day Monday, with onshore flow redeveloping by Tuesday as surface high pressure moves over the eastern seaboard.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 49 64 43 / 30 90 40 0 LCH 83 56 67 50 / 40 60 30 0 LFT 85 59 67 50 / 30 60 50 0 BPT 83 56 69 50 / 30 70 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Calcasieu Pass, East Jetty, Louisiana, Tide feet

Mermentau River entrance
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Sat -- 12:55 AM CDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM CDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:27 PM CDT     2.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM CDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
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Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,