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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 914 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots, becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 914 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure continues to move east through Friday with southerly wind in place. These winds will pick up Friday ahead of the next cold front that is expected late Saturday/early Sunday. The cold front will move through overnight and behind this front, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and strengthen. Small craft advisories will be needed across all zones with gale conditions possible. High pressure slowly builds in through midweek with offshore winds and seas subsiding.

FXUS64 KLIX 072332 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 532 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

High pressure centered off the South Carolina coast continues to shift east tonight into Friday, with a return of southerly flow and an increase in moisture. Cloud cover will return Friday but outside of a few sprinkles, it should stay dry and mild. Highs will be near 70 with lows Friday night in the lower 60s. A warm southerly wind continues Saturday ahead of the next cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Given the lift, a few showers may pop up during the afternoon but these shouldn't be a severe threat.

As the surface front moves into the region Saturday, the upper trough remains back near TX/OK which will be a limitation to severe weather. The front and bulk of the rainfall look to move through almost entirely overnight. Not to quote SPC but the severe risk overnight, is at best, marginal. Reminds me of many typical cold season fronts: strong frontal boundary, decent instability, marginal shear, plenty of moisture but the deep layer lift is well behind the surface features. It's difficult to get any organized strong to severe storms without that. The mid level lift/shortwave may be the best driver we have for severe and even that lifts north into MS by 3-6Z Sunday. This is why the Slight Risk is only for the far northwest parts of our area; better instability earlier in the day and closer to the lift. Can never rule out a brief tornado in these situations with the highest chance being west of the lakes where there is a better chance of coupling of the lift/front/instability and marginal low level shear.

In terms of rainfall, current forecast is 0.5-1 inch but that's going to be too low. There will likely be a line of stronger showers or storms and stratiform rain behind it. It won't take much of a shower to get at least half an inch. Current thinking is that 1-3 inches is closer to what the area could receive.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

The low and associated front is departing the area on Sunday. This leaves behind characteristics of high pressure and, generally, for the extended period we will be cool-to-chilly and dry. On Sunday behind the front, strong winds will also be here with winds around 20-25 MPH with high gusts. Low temps early in the week will be in the vicinity of freezing, give or take, in the northern LA parishes and southwestern MS counties. Toward mid- week, return flow brings moisture into the area resulting in partly to mostly cloudy. Also by mid-week, models are deviating so timing and magnitude of details on the next frontal system is a bit murky.
So, we'll be able to resolve the discrepancies as we move forward, but overall the weather should be pleasant in the extended period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As high pressure shifts eastward, winds will become southeasterly. Moisture will gradually return to the area, with prevailing cloud decks lowering from around 25kft this evening to 6-10kft by Friday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A large area of high pressure continues to push east today with southerly flow now in place. The next cold front will be Saturday night with winds increasing over the water through the day and could increase to Gale levels by Sunday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the front. Winds shift quickly to the NW with the gusty winds on Sunday. Light winds and low seas return by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 61 44 68 59 / 0 0 10 20 BTR 65 49 72 62 / 0 0 20 10 ASD 63 48 70 60 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 64 53 70 63 / 0 0 10 0 GPT 62 49 70 61 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 64 47 72 60 / 0 0 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Thu -- 01:24 AM CST     0.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:30 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:34 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 PM CST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Thu -- 12:37 AM CST     0.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:29 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:33 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:43 PM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:37 PM CST     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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