Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Abbeville, LA

FXUS64 KLCH 111107 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 607 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

New AVIATION

KEY MESSAGES

- A very dynamic storm system will move across southeast Texas and south Louisiana with strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon thru Midnight when it exits east of the Atchafalaya.

- Damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail will all be possible with the risk persisting after dark. Make sure to have a way to receive emergency alerts overnight.

- Cooler and drier weather expected behind the front to end the week before a light warming trend prior to another cold front passage Sunday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A shortwave trough embedded in the subtropical jet across central Texas this morning will eject eastward and phase with the northern jet through tomorrow morning. Guidance illustrates a weak surface low traversing the ARKLATEX region before becoming disorganized within the larger upper-level pattern east of the Mississippi.

Both thermal and dynamic forcing components suggest that all modes of severe weather—including tornadoes—will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface winds ahead of the main convection are expected to acquire a SSE component below a quickly veering profile, resulting in 30-35 kt of 0-1km shear and impressive 0-1km SRH of 170+ m2/s2. The recent 00Z sounding analyzed 7.5°C/km in the mid-levels, indicating that strong updrafts are likely. While damaging wind may be the primary mode, this forecast package stresses an increased tornado risk extending further south toward the coast. Recent 00Z guidance has been more progressive with the frontal boundary and trough orientation, yielding a more amplified system than earlier runs. This shift supports the potential for discrete pre-frontal convection during peak heating, which may erode low-level capping for mixed-layer parcels.

Storms will exit east of the Atchafalaya River/I-49 corridor around midnight. Following the frontal passage, winds will shift northerly and remain gusty through early Friday afternoon. Marine areas—including lakes, bays, and coastal waters—will be subject to high-end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Occasional gale-force gusts are possible.

Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday despite clearing skies, with highs in the mid-60s as north breezes ease late in the afternoon. Temperatures moderate into the 70s Friday as winds veer onshore by late morning. Warm and dry conditions will persist through Sunday morning ahead of another cold front expected by evening. The parent trough is forecast to lift well north of the area, limiting the potential for significant precipitation or severe weather this far south. However, large high pressure descending from Canada will exert a strong pressure gradient and facilitate cold air advection offshore. This pattern will cool temperatures into the 60s for the start of the work week, with slow moderation expected through midweek.
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