NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 837 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
.tornado watch 713 in effect until 4 am cst Saturday...
Tonight..South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy dense fog.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Patchy dense fog.
Saturday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop.
Sunday night..West winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 837 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
a tornado watch has been issued for vermilion, atchafalaya, and cote blanche bays as well as coastal waters from lower atchafalaya river to intracoastal city la out 20 nm until 4am for strong storms capable of producing water spouts. This threat may end earlier than 4am as storms clear the area.
areas of dense fog will continue through Saturday morning as the warm moist air resides over the cooler sea surface. Another round of showers and Thunderstorms is expected to develop tonight into Saturday as another upper level disturbance crosses the region. By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 020508 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1108 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

An area of showers and thunderstorms primarily composed of torrential downpours and strong winds is situated right over Acadiana. A Tornado Watch was issued for this area in response to shear and instability combining to potentially spawn damaging winds and some tornadoes. This watch will continue into 4AM, but will likely be cleared from the LCH CWA prior to this time once the line slides into southeast Louisiana.

Elsewhere, light to moderate showers are occurring and will continue to do so into the early morning hours.

The inherited forecast package has held up nicely this evening.
Went forward with blending previous forecast with short term guidance and HRRR to capture latest trends in PoPs through tomorrow morning.

11/Calhoun

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A long wave trough remains over the eastern CONUS this morning with Pacific moisture streaming northeast ahead of the trough.
This moisture is moving across coastal Texas and LA with the next embedded short wave spawning new convection between Corpus Christi and Galveston. A weak and slowly sinking south cold front stretches northward along the Texas coast across the Sabine and into Northeast LA.

Through tonight, the convection along the Texas coast will lift northeast into deep SE TX and South LA, into the same areas that received hefty rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours. Hi-res guidance has the highest amounts this evening/tonight southeast of a Sabine Pass to Opelousas line. Isolated locations may receive an additional 4-6", especially near Lafayette and south, but most locations in that area are expected receive 1-4". Opted to leave out the immediate coast from the Flash Flood watch being that the heaviest rain last night largely missed to the north and storage is generally empty.

In addition to the flood risk, there is a marginal risk of severe weather with weak tornadoes or high wind gusts possible. The boundary that pushed offshore last night is lifting north with +70F dewpts advecting into the coast. A modest amount of cape and shear may allow for a few brief organized storms ahead of the incoming shortwave tonight.

The warm and moist air mass advecting in from the gulf may also produce areas of dense fog, especially near the coast and into the HWY 190 corridor. Opted to not issue and adv for now due to uncertainty due to mixing from the incoming convection. The marine dense fog adv is nearly a slam dunk with nearshore water temps around 60F being overridden with 70F dewpts and light winds.

The weak front will ooze through Saturday morning with convection departing the region during the morning. Cooler and more settled weather will last into the long term.

05

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A rather quiet and seasonal period is on tap through the long term, with out next real weather maker likely not arriving until next weekend. On Monday, a mid level shortwave trough will be be diving across the Midwest/TN Valley, with a W/NW flow overhead aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure will be meandering around the SErn US, providing a light offshore flow, partly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid 60s for the start of the work week.

Tuesday, a second shortwave will make it way out of Canada, plunging south through the Midwest and carving out a deeper trough over the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. This trough will drag a cold front across the Plains on Tuesday, with the boundary expected to make its way to the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Unfortunately if you're looking for a taste of colder weather this front doesn't look like it'll bring it, with only a slight northerly wind shift expected with frontal passage on Wednesday. Temperature wise, highs will top out in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees both Tues and Wed, with overnight lows in the 40s expected.

Just as quickly as winds shifted north on Wednesday they will return to an onshore flow on Thursday, as post-frontal high pressure quickly slides off to our east. At the same time, weak mid level ridging looks to build over the Plains. This set up will bring about slightly warmer temps along with slowly increasing dewpoints through the end of the long term period. Rain chances remain near zero through Friday however, our next chance of rain looks like it may arrive as we start the weekend.

17

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Periods of on and off showers will slowly diminish through the early morning hours. Winds will decrease overnight allowing areas of patchy dense fog to develop, along with LIFR ceilings.

Low clouds and patchy ground fog will linger into the mid morning until dry air can start working into the area from the northwest on northerly winds. In the afternoon hours, a brief period of improved ceilings to MVFR is expected before lowering starts again after sundown.

11/Calhoun



MARINE
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Marine fog will remain in place across the coastal waters through tonight and into Saturday. An adv remains in effect until 9AM Sat.

By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

08/05

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 71 49 70 / 80 50 10 0 LCH 63 72 53 71 / 90 30 10 0 LFT 67 76 56 71 / 100 50 30 0 BPT 62 73 51 70 / 80 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Saturday for LAZ044-045-055-142-143- 152>154-242-243.

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Cypremort Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:54 AM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 AM CST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 AM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:55 PM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:04 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cypremort Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:08 PM CST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Lake Charles, LA,