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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 255 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots early. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, becoming slightly choppy to choppy in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 15 knots, becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 255 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds and seas of 3 feet or less will persist through midweek, becoming southerly by Thursday. Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into Saturday as the next cold front approaches. Gusty northwesterly winds and elevated seas will prevail in the wake of the front with small craft advisories likely being required Saturday night into early Sunday.

FXUS64 KHGX 050850 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A weak reinforcing frontal boundary/airmass will filter into the area later today and tonight keeping the wx status quo through the short term period. Variable high cirrus riding along the upper jet will stream across the southern portion of the CWA today and tonight. Surface high pressure moves off to the east Wednesday night which will allow for a gradual modifying trend to begin. 47

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Going into Thursday, ridging aloft begins to nudge out to the east as a mid/upper level trough approaches from the NW CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is also off to our east leading to onshore flow gradually increasing moisture heading into the end of the work week. Last but not least we have an 850mb area of high pressure off to our east, which induces southwesterly flow aloft (WAA) into the weekend. All three of those will have an impact for what's to come on Saturday...but let's talk about Thursday and Friday more first.
As the trough drifts southeastward, surface low pressure is generated through lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on Thursday night. The tightening pressure gradient enhances warm air/moisture advection going into Friday. PW values reach the 1.1"- 1.4" range by late Thursday night (75th percentile: ~1.18"), so some streamer showers will be possible around the coast beginning at this timeframe. Temperatures peak on Friday with 850mb temperatures equal to or greater than the 90th percentile, so expect to see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s along with breezy southerly winds.

There is model consensus on the trough digging down through the Four Corners region and pushing a cold front through "some time" on Saturday, but as far as the timing of the front, how much the trough deepens, the path of the surface low, and how quickly the surface low deepens...not too much consensus there yet. The GFS is still the quicker of the three long range deterministic models with a Saturday morning FROPA. ECMWF and Canadian still show an afternoon FROPA, which allows for daytime heating to help destabilize the atmosphere.
However, recall the 850mb flow being predominantly southwesterly throughout the week...this leads to a fairly decent subsidence inversion layer around 850mb-750mb. That's not to say that storms can't overcome the cap given the lift along the frontal boundary paired with a LLJ and being in the right entrance region of a jet streak. There will be an axis of instability for storms to work with along with plenty of shear if they can break through the cap. An afternoon FROPA allows for a better opportunity at breaking the cap through daytime heating and with two out of three long range models still depicting that timing, it's understandable that SPC has kept parts of Southeast TX outlined in a 15% probability of severe weather for Saturday.

Behind the front, northwesterly winds will be VERY breezy...possibly enough for a Wind Advisory going into Saturday night. Temperatures are much cooler behind the front as we go from highs in the low to mid 70s on Saturday (this also depends on FROPA timing) to highs in the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday. Low temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but Sunday night will be the coldest of the period due to clear skies and light winds as surface high pressure drifts overhead (max radiational cooling).
Expecting widespread overnight temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s. With the 850mb high remaining overhead into midweek, temperatures don't look to climb too much. Only looking at highs in the mid 60s with lows remaining mainly in the 40s early next week.
Even the upper quartiles of the NBM stay below the 70°F mark through midweek, so a period of seasonal conditions looks to be in store.

Batiste

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR for the next 30+ hours with just some cirrus passing overhead (moreso closer to the coast and offshore). 47

MARINE
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds and low seas prevail through Wednesday. There is a brief window on early Wednesday morning for winds to increase to the caution flag threshold. Onshore flow returns on Thursday with winds gradually increasing into Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. A cold front along with showers and thunderstorms pushes through the waters on Saturday with moderate northwesterly winds and elevating seas in its wake. Mariners can expect Small Craft Advisories to be in effect Saturday night into early Sunday.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 46 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 53 62 55 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:55 AM CST     1.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM CST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:46 PM CST     0.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:47 PM CST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM CST     0.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:52 PM CST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:18 PM CST     0.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:41 PM CST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

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