Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port St. Joe, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Convection got an early start this morning in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle with additional development into southern Alabama. The Bermuda ridge is hanging on, atleast into eastern half of the CWA while west to southwest flow is helping to increase moisture into the western half of the area where storms are developing. Area cross sections still show some dry air in the 850- 600mb layer but decreasing with westward extent; this leads to DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg roughly where SPC has the marginal risk for today (southeast Alabama east and south through I-75 and the southeast Big Bend. Short range models have the seabreeze initiating convection along and south of I-10 over the next several hours then spreading north before dissipating later this evening. Strong wind gusts are the main threats with stronger storms as well as frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

A wetter pattern takes shape Sunday through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving south through the upper midwest current;y cuts off an upper low over the Tennessee Valley Monday then drifts into the southeast US Tuesday before retrograding into the southern Plains Wednesday. The associated frontal system will also drift south towards the northern CWA counties before stalling and dissipating into mid week next week. The Bermuda ridge loses its grip while PWATs increase towards the 2-2.3" range with the highest readings Monday corresponding with the highest rainfall chances (70-80% area wide). SPC continues the marginal risk for strong-severe wind gusts Sunday through much of the area and Monday across the eastern half of the area. WPC also continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall Sunday through Tuesday with a possible addition of a slight risk Monday depending on how trends evolve and if forecast rainfall amounts increase. After Tuesday rain chances begin to come down to near/below normal as high pressure once again takes over through the remainder of the work week.

High temperatures won't quite be as high as days past with readings in the mid 90s but the slight increase in moisture and dewpoints may necessitate a heat advisory for portions of the Florida panhandle and western Big Bend Sunday. Monday and Tuesday highs will be 'cooler' with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s given the increase in rain chances and cloud cover. Wednesday through Friday will have temperatures bump back up to the mid 90s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A few showers and storms have blossomed over the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. These showers and storms steadily head east throughout the day and have included PROB30s at most aerodromes later this afternoon as a result. A PROB30 was considered for KABY, but chances and confidence weren't high enough to include at this time; if there was one, it would be between 20Z and 01Z.

Another round of showers and storms is forecast to develop along the immediate coast early Sunday morning before moving inland to near KTLH late in the TAF period and other aerodromes Sunday afternoon.

VFR conditions and a light to moderate westerly breeze is forecast outside of any showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A general light to moderate southwest to west flow will be in place much of the upcoming week with high pressure centered east of the Florida peninsula. Daily increases to around 15 knots along the nearshore waters can be expected due to the seabreeze. Rain chances increase Sunday through mid week then decrease afterwards into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A wetter pattern is expected Sunday through Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heat indices will reach 103-107F Sunday with isolated spots possibly reaching 110F for short periods, mainly closer to the coast. High temperatures and heat indices won't be quite as high Monday and Tuesday with the higher rain chances and afternoon cloud cover.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A wetter pattern is setting up through mid week next week as a frontal system gets hung up across the region. Current forecast totals are pointing at 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the next week, with isolated higher amounts possible. Riverine flooding is not currently expected, however isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible across poor drainage areas. WPC has outlooked the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall each day Sunday through Tuesday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 76 93 75 89 / 40 70 40 80 Panama City 80 91 78 88 / 20 50 80 80 Dothan 75 93 73 87 / 30 50 70 80 Albany 76 94 73 89 / 20 40 60 80 Valdosta 75 95 74 91 / 30 30 30 80 Cross City 77 94 77 92 / 20 60 50 70 Apalachicola 80 90 79 88 / 10 60 70 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>160.

AL...None.
GM...None.