Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port St. Joe, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A warming and moistening trend is forecast to continue into Sunday with breezy onshore winds expected ahead of the next approaching system. Showers and a few storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, and with fairly high low level wind shear, I wouldn't be surprised if some of these end up producing some gusty winds or even a couple of tornadoes. Seems like instability may be the limiting factor, but it doesn't take much to get these very low-topped supercells (supershowers as we call them when they don't even have lightning). Coverage should be fairly isolated, however this could end up helping severe potential with allowing storms/showers to take full advantage of the atmosphere without other storms crowding the space and cutting off inflow. This setup overall seems pretty conditional, so confidence is on the lower side, but I just want to make sure its not getting overshadowed by the Sunday night/Monday morning weather.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The main event for this week is a very strong cold front with strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The ceiling for this event appears to be quite high if all of the ingredients are maximized and can line up favorably including strong upper and mid-level dynamics, unseasonably high instability, and strong low-level wind shear. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to very quickly push eastward across the region Sunday night into Monday morning, with damaging winds and tornadoes the primary threats with this line. Ahead of the main line, we could have some discrete supercell development as well. If those are able to form, they will likely be severe with damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail all possible. Hodographs generally appear fairly straight, which could favor both left and right- moving supercells. Left- movers would favor the large hail threat and right-movers would favor the tornado threat. Timing is still a bit uncertain with this system as guidance showers anywhere from Sunday night to early Monday afternoon, however in setups like this the model bias tends to show a storm motion slower than it ends up being. Regardless of the actual time of arrival, the storm motions will be quite fast and therefore fairly little rainfall accumulation is expected.

A very sharp, strong cold front is forecast to sweep across the region after the squall line, with strong cold air advection leading to windy, dry, and chilly conditions for the rest of the day Monday. High temperatures may actually occur in the early morning hours on Monday before falling throughout the rest of the day and into the night Monday night. Low temperatures on Monday night are forecast in stark contrast to the recent days, ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the region with windy conditions bringing wind chills into the 20s. Freezing conditions seem likely over much of the inland areas, although winds and dry conditions should keep frost at bay. Very chilly conditions are expected to continue into Tuesday with high temperatures only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another cold night is forecast Tuesday night with high pressure overhead and radiational cooling favored.
Low temperatures may actually be coldest Tuesday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s, but with wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s due to light winds. A warming and moistening trend is expected to kick off Wednesday onward.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of the night. For early Sunday morning, MVFR ceilings associated with low stratus are expected to move in from south to north. The stratus is expected to linger through the mid to late morning hours with VFR returning for the afternoon. Winds will become southerly Sunday afternoon with gusts of 15-20 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Increasing winds and seas are expected on Sunday as the next strong frontal system approaches the area. Strong to severe showers and storms are expected late Sunday night through Monday morning, with strong onshore winds ahead of it and stronger NW winds in its wake. As such, a Gale Watch is in effect for most waters early Monday morning through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions could last through Tuesday as winds and seas gradually subside.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A slight warming and moistening trend will continue on Sunday with quite windy onshore flow ahead of the next frontal system. These windy conditions will lead to excellent dispersions across the area on Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday morning a squall line of showers and thunderstorms, some severe, is expected to push eastward across the area. Damaging winds, some hail, and tornadoes will all be possible, however unfortunately not much rainfall accumulation is expected. A strong cold front is forecast to push across with the storms, with winds becoming NW and quite windy in its wake. Temps will likely fall through much of the day on Monday with strong cold air advection taking place. Very high to excellent dispersions are possible across the area once again Monday and Tuesday with the breezy conditions behind the front. By Tuesday, a cool and critically dry air mass is expected to be entrenched over the region.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The only notable rain over the next several days is on Monday, but forecast amounts are mostly about a half inch to three- quarters of an inch (isolated higher) given the expected frontal system's progressive nature. Values are subject to change. While beneficial, these numbers are not nearly high enough to make much of a dent in our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. The CPC Day 8-14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 13th, paints a pessimistic picture with widespread 40-60% probabilities of (likely) below-normal precipitation - valid March 21st-27th.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 60 81 67 72 / 10 30 70 80 Panama City 62 78 66 70 / 0 20 90 70 Dothan 58 81 60 62 / 0 20 90 70 Albany 57 83 64 68 / 10 10 70 80 Valdosta 59 84 66 73 / 20 30 70 90 Cross City 60 84 67 77 / 10 50 60 90 Apalachicola 64 74 67 72 / 0 30 80 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for GMZ735-751-752-755-770-772-775.