Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Iberia, LA

FXUS64 KLCH 110005 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 705 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

New AVIATION

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, humid and breezy conditions will continue into early Wednesday

- A very dynamic storm system will move across southeast Texas and south Louisiana with strong to severe thunderstorms expected from Wednesday afternoon thru Midnight when it exits east of the Atchafalaya.

- Damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail will all be possible, especially after dark. Make sure to have a way to receive emergency alerts overnight.

- Cooler and drier weather expected behind the front to end the week before a warming trend over next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A breezy afternoon has unfolded across the region as we all feel the nearing effects of tomorrow's weather system. At this hour, RAP 500 analysis indicates the closed low is beginning to elongate in a north to south fashion; indicating it's started to open into a wave to be picked up in upper level flow. Tonight, the low is expected to fully open into a strong shortwave pulse as it drags a potent sfc low and attendant cool front across the north Gulf coast.

Wednesday morning, increasing gradient winds between northeast Gulf ridge and deepening low in east Texas will result in southeast winds sustained around 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts during daytime hours. A wind advisory will likely be needed. During the mid morning hours, this increasing flow will send a renewed warm sector surging north, eroding the dry EML and helping to destabilize conditions. This subsident layer will likely staunch most shower and storm development thru the first part of the day.

The system is expected to deepen rapidly as it approaches the Texas / Louisiana state line in the early afternoon. Southerly flow will only increase as it does so, funneling a secondary warm sector over southwest LA in the afternoon and early evening. This reinforced energy source combined with locally induced and rapidly increasing shear and cooling temperatures advecting overhead may result in an almost explosive amount of storm development along with and ahead of the low's passage. A broad area of increasing bulk shear spreads out across the CWA during this time which could support a period of discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes before the main line rakes across. If the line congeals into bowing segments, further wind damage and embedded tornadoes will be possible.

The earliest cells may start to develop is 2 PM in southeast Texas counties. Development will only increase from west to east over the following hours. The speed of the low will sweep storms across central and south central LA through the evening and should be out of the area by midnight or 2 AM.

To summarize: a very dynamic environment is expected to develop from Southeast Texas across all of Louisiana Wednesday afternoon thru Midnight. The environment will support the rapid development of supercells capable of producing damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail in the afternoon and evening ahead of a line of congealed storms which may develop into strong wind segments with embedded tornadoes as it moves across south Louisiana after dark.
Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts, especially for those overnight hours! This is a situation to take VERY seriously as we do not see these setups very frequently in the Deep South.

Behind the front, strong northeast winds will develop bringing much colder and drier air into the region.

11/Calhoun
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