Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridge City, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Pressure gradient between high to the east and developing trof to the west has continued a fetch of warm, moist air off the Gulf.
There are still two distinct features at play this hour: high ridging over the ne Gulf and developing troughiness across north Texas. Ridge to the east has backed off today, allowing for sfc winds to relax some as well. This should result in a more solid slug of marine fog to move inland to coastal areas by sunrise, since the bank won't be shredded by winds like seen in recent mornings. Expect dense fog to remain mostly contained to areas between I-10 and the coastline as upper cirrus blowoff from TX convection should help limit fog development much further north.

Coastal inland areas under a DFY until 10 AM, marine until 12 PM.

The first of several upper trofs will move into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday afternoon, eroding the standing ridge somewhat.
However, guidance doesn't reflect much for height falls over TX/LA/MS, so only a few isolated showers may make a stab at popping up.

Positively tilted trof drops out of the greater Rockies on Friday with a very widespread berth of increased surface winds set to develop in response. Roughly 30 to 50 knot near-sfc jet max stretching from Iowa to the south Gulf and from Colorado to Tennessee is expected by Friday AM. However, ridge remains resolute and so most forcing is deflected rapidly north. The weakening remains of a sfc jet try to move overtop the Sabine Basin Friday afternoon, but with ridge standing to the east and only 30 knots near-sfc overhead, upper entrance region still off the west, we'll be hard pressed to see much convective development Friday afternoon and evening.

Best rain chances will be over se TX and extreme sw LA, where the "best" forcing will overlap with the lowest heights relative to the ridge. PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range aren't out of the question with marginal CAPE surging up the coastline. A few isolated storms could pause any outdoor events for a short time, so plan a contingency plan for those in the aforementioned area. PWATs top out in the 1.20 to 1.40 inch range at peak opportunity for convection, which is right at the 90th percentile, so those showers that develop may have big downpours. Low level jet will keep rainfall moving, so not anticipating stalled downpours leading to flooding.

Big time upper mechanics take over Friday night into Saturday. Upper trof further becomes deeply stretched across the cenUS from the Baja Peninsula to New England. A wide corridor of heavy rainfall is set to develop beneath this corridor of strong parallel flow. The ridge backs off slightly and rainfall begins to spread into se TX and cenLA by Saturday AM. Deep slug of daily max PWATs arrives, further increasing rainfall coverage and intensity across the se TX counties. Then, just like a Hotwheel car hitting the track motor before the big loop, the next Polar Jet max is zipped quickly between the Aleutian Low over AK and strong North Pacific High right into the Pacific NW. Instead of a cool orange loop-de-loop, the jet max rips right across the Pac NW, hitting upper trof and causing the flow to buckle. An upper cutoff low breaks off into the Baja, while the remaining trof gets forced east.

And so, with these two features jutting south and east, the Gulf ridge is forced to back off. Departing jet along the trof now over the Ohio Valley pulls the trof away, and the sfc boundary sags south in response. The axis of heavy rainfall will finally reach the forecast area Saturday afternoon with the bulk of heavy rainfall, showers and thunderstorms settling in overnight into Sunday when the aforementioned trof is pulled away.

Moisture in the upper 90th percentile combined with sharp gradient of parallel flow and marginally decent CAPE from Saturday night into Sunday night will allow efficient rainfall to take over. Currently, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible over this period with higher totals likely. There will be a distant threat of flash flooding, mostly where heavy downpours can train over the same area.
However, we are so dry and water tables so low, it will be an isolated threat realizing later in the event if at all.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The pattern of active weather continues into the next work week as Baja low pressure system is finally pulled across the south central US. This feature combined with moisture in place will bring about showers and thunderstorms as well as gusty winds Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Fog has largely failed to materialized away from the coastline however, brief reductions in VIS are still possible at LCH/BPT over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, main issue through the short term is low ceilings, which will gradually lift to VFR by midday. VFR conditions and light to moderate southeast winds prevail through the afternoon/evening. Overnight, another round of low ceilings and fog are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 65 86 67 / 10 0 20 30 LCH 81 66 82 69 / 0 0 30 20 LFT 82 67 84 70 / 10 0 20 20 BPT 80 66 82 68 / 0 0 30 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ073-074- 152-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436- 450-452-455.