LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A relatively drier period continues to set up through much of the upcoming week as upper level ridging builds across much of the northern gulf coast. Isolated, diurnally driven convection will still develop each afternoon with the highest probabilities within the highest moisture profiles across lower Acadiana. As has been the case in previous forecast packages, opted to undercut NBM PoPs Monday through Wednesday as they seem to significantly exceed the forecast environment.

With the ridge suppressing both convection and cloud cover, afternoon highs will climb back into the low to mid 90s bringing an end to the brief reprieve from the summer heat. Consistent weak high pressure over the Northeastern gulf coast will maintain steady, light southerly winds through much of the week keeping dewpoints in the upper 70s which will push apparent temperatures into the 100-105 range each afternoon.

Jones

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Heavy showers have generally ended over southwest Louisiana. VCSH and lowered ceilings were included at all sites for the next several hours as there are some light showers and observed CIGs less than 1000 feet still in the region.

After sundown, remnant ground moisture will cause some ceilings to remain around 500 feet and will allow for some ground fog to form.
As seen in the last several days, the next round of showers should develop after midnight.

Upper level low pressure center should begin lifting out during the day Friday; marking the beginning of the end for this heavy downpour pattern.

Winds are expected to continue their semi-variable and light nature through the period.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Light southerly winds and low seas will prevail through the period. There will be continued high chances for daily showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Rain chances should become more normal next week, with scattered convection likely developing each morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 71 86 72 / 60 50 80 20 LCH 83 74 86 76 / 90 60 90 40 LFT 84 74 90 77 / 90 40 90 20 BPT 84 73 86 76 / 90 70 90 40

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for LAZ073-074.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ515-615-616.

GM...None.