Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groves, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 159 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Relatively benign conditions are ongoing today, characterized by well above normal temperatures and breezy southeasterly flow beneath partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The first in a series of disturbances will approach the region, leading to an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday. However, the presence of modest low level moisture and weak lift suggests that a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out later this evening.

The most impactful weather of the short term period is expected on Saturday as a frontal boundary advances into the region from the north, slowing north of the CWA This will help support a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday morning across the northern half of the CWA Some storms may become strong to severe, accompanied by locally heavy rainfall. Current guidance places portions of the area within a Marginal Risk ERO and a Marginal to Slight Risk SWO, with the greatest risk area across the northern and western portions of the CWA

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist into Sunday as the boundary gradually weakens and drifts southward. Despite the weakening front, it will likely remain a focus for convective development through Sunday and potentially into Monday.

Aloft, an upper trough will progress from the PacNW into the western Rockies this weekend while a cutoff low develops over the Desert SW States. The cutoff low will then slowly move from the Baja California coast into central TX from the early to mid week period. This evolution will likely support several rounds of showers and storms early to mid next week as moisture remains abundant with PWATs in the 75th to 90th percentile range.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Question for tonight will be fog versus low ceilings. At the moment boundary layer winds are expected to stay up enough that IFR/LIFR ceilings are favored over visibility restrictions for KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA with MVFR for KAEX. These ceilings are expected to move into KBPT/KLCH between 06/02-06z and the remainder of the terminals after 06/06z.

Ceilings will increase to MVFR after 06/15z with VFR by 06/18z.

Southerly winds will be a bit gusty on Friday with gusts near or above 20 knots.

07/Rua

MARINE
Issued at 159 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Warm, moist air as and will continue to funnel over cool nearshore waters, resulting in this prolonged period of marine fog. Friday starts a period of active weather as a series of disturbances push a front towards the northern Gulf. From Saturday thru the start of next week, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms as well as increasing onshore winds in response.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 159 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Moisture will continue surging into the region on strong southeast winds between storm system in the central US and high pressure over the northeast Gulf. A few isolated showers will be possible this evening with an increase in rain chances by tomorrow as a surface front approaches from the north. The front slowly sags into the northern Gulf and will bring about a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals from 1 to 3 inches will be possible across southeast Texas and central and southwest Louisiana from Friday thru Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 85 67 84 / 0 20 30 90 LCH 66 81 68 82 / 0 20 20 60 LFT 67 83 70 83 / 0 20 10 60 BPT 66 81 68 81 / 0 30 20 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.