Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groves, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Precipitation will remain in the forecast throughout the short term outlook, however, chances for excessive rainfall appear to decrease slightly. More specifically, the axis of favorable moisture convergence is expected to shift further east toward the MS Delta.

An upper level trough discussed in previous overnight packages has now moved east of the MS Delta with the approaching secondary shortwave over the Southern Plains also advancing east today. This incoming shortwave carries a positive tilt that phases closer to stronger northern stream pattern over the Missouri Valley. Should be noted that while SETX carries less chances for rainfall, there still exist daily opportunities for isolated or clustered thundershowers- some of which are still capable of laying down efficient rainfall rates while PWATs still trend above the 75th percentile per observed soundings. Mid to upper level tropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease into the mid week which will further limit risks of excessive rainfall in this region. That decrease in available moisture will also be noted over south central LA through the mid week. Daily high temperatures will remain toward 90°F which is seasonably normal for this time of year. That said, minimum RH values during the daylight hours will generally stay above 60% making apparent temperatures few several degrees warmer but below any heat related advisory criteria for now.

Kowalski / 30

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure across the western Atlantic is forecast to build over Bermuda with ridging also strengthening westward across the NW Gulf waters. Additionally an upper level ridge will develop across Midwest Sunday before expanding further through the beginning of the upcoming work week. There are signals of more notable dry layers and inversions with above 700mb, however, the proximity to the marine environment under steady SE'ly fetch will still allow conditional afternoon thundershowers. From a climatological standpoint, it would be encouraged to take advantage periods of dry weather for outdoor chores / activities as the latest 6-10 day CPC outlook still suggests roughly a 30-40% chance above normal precipitation locally across SETX and SWLA.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas of morning BR to diminish over next hour or two. Scattered convection is expected within the vicinity of all terminals across the forecast area. Signals in guidance show BPT and areas along SETX to have slightly lesser coverage. Outside of TS, conditions should generally prevail VFR. Do note gusty winds have been noted in earlier morning convection across LFT suggesting periodic strong variable thunderstorm gusts are possible through this afternoon.

30

MARINE
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 73 91 73 / 40 10 30 10 LCH 89 77 89 77 / 40 10 40 10 LFT 89 75 89 75 / 70 20 60 10 BPT 89 77 89 77 / 30 10 30 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.