Groves, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Groves, TX

June 17, 2024 9:30 AM CDT (14:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM
Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 1:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 323 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

.small craft exercise caution in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through Wednesday evening - .

Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon.

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening.

Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.

Tuesday night - East winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 323 Am Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis - A tropical disturbance in the southwestern gulf of mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the northeast mexico coast through Wednesday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated Thunderstorm activity. A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week. The prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groves, TX
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Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 171146 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 646 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Latest IR and WV imagery shows copious tropical moisture streaming northward across the Gulf of Mexico from a disturbance located near the Bay of Campeche. KLCH radar shows a few showers already developing over the coastal waters as well as portions of SW LA early this morning, as energy associated with the system spreads over the NW Gulf. This disturbance will be the main player in our weather through at least midweek, and NHC continues to monitor for possible development of a depression or storm.

In the meantime, as moisture increases and deepens over the region, so will shower coverage with the potential for heavy rainfall at times the next few days. At the coast, tide levels have already begun to rise in response to the strengthening east to southeast wind field. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for our coastal parishes and county yesterday, but given the potential for some significant flooding, especially along the Jefferson County and western Cameron Parish coastlines, a Coastal Flood Watch has now been issued.

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SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The trough/low will continue to take shape today in the Bay of Campeche, and could become the first potential tropical cyclone of the 2024 season. As the system develops, deep southeast to south flow will continue to usher tropical moisture over the region, with PWATs increasing to around 2.2 inches. The combination of this moisture, minimal capping and ascent provided by an inverted trough in the midlevels will allow showers and a few storms to become more numerous across the region. With PWATs already well above the 90th percentile and deep moisture profiles indicated on forecast soundings, any showers or storms will be capable of very efficient rainfall resulting in locally heavy downpours. WPC continues to outline much of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. CAM guidance suggests some isolated spots could receive 3 to 4 inches of rain today.

A slight reprieve from the convection will be possible this evening and overnight as instability weakens with the loss of daytime heating, with nocturnal convection developing overnight and moving toward the coastal areas early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday however, a deeper slug of moisture will spread into the region, with PWATs potentially as high as 2.5 inches (or possibly greater) spreading into SE TX and far SW LA as the midlevel trough approaches the TX coast. The latest WPC QPF has backed off some on storm total rainfall amounts (compared to yesterday morning), with a shift in the higher totals to the southwest. Despite this, efficient warm rain processes will still be in play and would support torrential downpours in any showers or storms that develop. A Moderate Risk (Level 3 out of 4) remains in place for portions of far SW LA into lower SE TX for excessive rainfall.
Given the recent shift in higher rainfall totals to the southwest (which is reflected in global model guidance as well), have opted to hold off on issuance of a Flood Watch at this time.

While flooding from rainfall may not be quite as widespread as it appeared a few days ago, the risk for coastal flooding remains a strong likelihood as the prolonged and strong east to southeast fetch will bring increased water levels. The latest P-ETSS guidance suggests tide levels could rise to between 2 and 3 FT MHHW at Texas Point and between 1.5 and 2.5 FT MHHW at Calcasieu Pass at times of high tide between Tuesday and Wednesday. While there remains some spread in guidance ensembles, these values remain fairly consistent from yesterday morning. Because of this, have gone ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Watch for the Jefferson County and Cameron/Vermilion Parish coasts.

The low pressure system will continue to move slowly west to west northwest from Tuesday into Wednesday, approaching the coast of NE Mexico Wednesday night. The bulk of the moisture and energy associated with the system will shift westward into TX, with slightly drier air beginning to filter into the region from the east. Another day of scattered to numerous showers and storms is expected on Wednesday, and the excessive rainfall outlook for Day 3 continues to show at least a Slight Risk for portions of SE TX, with a Marginal Risk extending into SW LA.

During this timeframe, daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal thanks to widespread clouds and showers, and temperatures on Tuesday could struggle to reach the middle 80s.

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LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Gulf of Mexico disturbance and its associated large envelop of moisture expected to be well inland Mexico/Texas by Thursday morning, as the large mid to upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the Gulf and Southeastern U.S. states. Lingering moisture will still be available for scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of the I-10 corridor through Saturday, with the best chances across the coastal waters. With the ridge of high pressure nearly overhead, afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s expected for Thursday, and mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday and Monday a little less confidence in the precipitation forecast, with the lingering Gulf moisture possibly moving northward as the mid to upper level ridge weakens and a weak broad mid to upper level trough prevails over the Central U.S. Blended guidance shows 30-50% inland for Sunday, and 40-60% for Monday, mainly during the afternoons. Highs in the lower to mid 90s, and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

08/DML

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Messy aviation conditions will be unfolding through the day today as SHRA/TSRA increase across the area. This activity will be accompanied by lower vsbys and cigs, as well possibly +RA and brief wind gusts. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions should prevail with E to SE winds 8-12 KT. Winds could be a little higher near BPT with gusts between 20-25 KT at times this afternoon.
Convection should begin to diminish after sunset, with cigs lowering to MVFR after 06Z.

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MARINE
Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will gradually move west-northwest toward the northeast Mexico coast through Wednesday. Deep moisture will be associated with this system that will bring widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity.

A strengthening gradient between the disturbance and high pressure to the northeast will generate moderate to strong east to southeast winds through mid week. The prolonged fetch will allow for a significant increase in wave heights and swells, as well as an increased risk for coastal flooding. Small Craft Advisories are in effect across the coastal waters. Offshore seas between 10 to possibly 15 feet will be possible from Tuesday into Wednesday, with occasional gusts to gale force. Mariners are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 72 84 72 / 80 30 50 20 LCH 85 74 82 74 / 80 30 80 50 LFT 87 76 84 76 / 90 40 70 30 BPT 88 76 84 75 / 80 40 80 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ073.

Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for LAZ074-252.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ253-254.

TX...Coastal Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 8 mi42 minNNE 4.1G13 80°F 86°F29.87
TXPT2 20 mi42 minSSE 8.9G16 80°F 89°F29.85
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 32 mi42 minENE 8.9G16 79°F 88°F29.92
BKTL1 34 mi42 min 91°F
HIST2 38 mi42 minSSE 5.1G7 82°F 93°F29.85
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 39 mi42 min 72°F 94°F29.97
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 46 mi42 minSSE 11G16 84°F 92°F29.86


Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBPT JACK BROOKS RGNL,TX 8 sm37 minENE 1410 smOvercast81°F72°F74%29.90
KORG ORANGE COUNTY,TX 8 sm15 minENE 17G217 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 79°F73°F84%29.95
KBMT BEAUMONT MUNI,TX 19 sm15 minE 09G14Mostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%29.91
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Wind History graph: ORG
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Tide / Current for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Sabine Naches Canal, Port Arthur, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Sabine Naches Canal, Port Arthur, Texas, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains   
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Lake Charles, LA,




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