NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

AMZ452 Expires:202312031030;;785654 Fzus52 Kjax 022021 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 321 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-031030- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 321 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am est Sunday...
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of dense fog. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 321 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..
a warm front is draped across the coastal waters as its associated cold front moves southeast into the region. Warm, moist southerly flow has led to the formation dense fog which is expected to remain across the nearshore waters into Sunday morning with visibility at or below 1 nautical mile. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters Sunday night turning winds to the west and northwest. Stronger northwest winds are expected by Monday night. A secondary front will move southeast across the area by mid week.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 30, 2023 at 1200 utc...
51 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 030041 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 741 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 727 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Warm front continues to slowly lift as it becomes more diffuse tonight ahead an approaching cold front. Increased rain chances over the next few hours along and north of the warm, generally along and north of I-10. Coverage should decrease overnight with increasing wake subsidence behind this evenings passing impulse.
Despite the continuing rain, with the loss of instability/heating, the threat of severe/strong storms has diminished.

Additional rainfall over the next few hours may prolong minor flooding that occurred with the early wave of rain and embedded t'storms early this evening.

Given the warm moist airmass in place, patchy dense fog will be possible, especially in areas where considerable rain fell this afternoon and evening. Sea fog will also be an issue along the coast tonight mainly for areas from Marineland northward; this could lead to periods of dense fog along at the beaches through tonight and through potentially through the late morning hours Sunday.



NEAR TERM
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A warm front remains draped across the I-10 corridor this afternoon. With the region between high pressure in the Atlantic and a shortwave trough digging into the southern Plains, deep layer south-southwesterly flow has ushered in warm, moist air across the FL peninsula. This has set-up an overrunning pattern across the area. Overrunning combined with passing shortwaves aloft have produced widespread showers with embedded storms that will spread eastward across the area through tonight. With NE FL in the warm sector, the best chance for thunderstorms will remain generally south of I-10. With ample instability (SBCAPE ~ 1500 J/kg), decent helicity and high shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible as they propagate eastward along the frontal boundary and tap into the more unstable environment.
Stronger storms could produce damaging winds, heavy downpours, small hail and a brief landspout. Stable stratiform rain is expected to be dominant over SE GA but a stray storm is possible.
Continuous rainfall will lead to about an inch across far inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley with locally higher amounts possible.
Instability will wane with the loss of daytime heating but a few embedded thunderstorms will persist into the night. Along with showers, low stratus and patchy fog are expected to develop overnight. Overnight lows will be above seasonable in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sunday, the initial shortwave trough will rotate ENE from the mid south into the OH valley and help to push the surface cold front into the area. This will allow greater rainfall coverage to slide east into Jacksonville and the coast where scattered to numerous showers should arrive by the late morning to early afternoon hours.
There may be enough instability for isolated storms along and just ahead of the front in the afternoon, but with much of the shortwave energy and ascent will stay well to our north and cloudy skies and weak lapse rates should prohibit strong to severe storm potential. Uniform SW winds from the surface to the mid levels will also limit convergence along the front and showers should become less heavy through the day as they shift east. Surface winds will become southwesterly 10-15 mph as the front moves through the area, then turn westerly Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The Heaviest rainfall totals will be north and west of Jacksonville where totals of 1.0-1.5 inches will be common with a quarter to a half inch more common south and east of highway 301 by the end of Sunday. Highs will be warm with mid to upper 70s over most areas to near 80 along the St Johns river basin into Jacksonville.

Monday, low clouds will linger the first half of the day as the mid/upper trough deepens over the MS valley and allows low level SW to WSW flow to linger over the region before the trough swings through the deep south Monday afternoon and brings in drier air with surface high pressure building in from the WNW. High thin cirrus clouds will remain over the region as fast jet stream level winds remain along the gulf coast into Carolina low country. Cooler highs nearer to normal in the lower 70s over inland SE GA to the low/mid 70s over NE FL and the coast. Lows Monday morning will begin mild over NE FL in the low to mid 60s and cooler in the 50s over SE GA.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sunday, the initial shortwave trough will rotate ENE from the mid south into the OH valley and help to push the surface cold front into the area. This will allow greater rainfall coverage to slide east into Jacksonville and the coast where scattered to numerous showers should arrive by the late morning to early afternoon hours.
There may be enough instability for isolated storms along and just ahead of the front in the afternoon, but with much of the shortwave energy and ascent will stay well to our north and cloudy skies and weak lapse rates should prohibit strong to severe storm potential. Uniform SW winds from the surface to the mid levels will also limit convergence along the front and showers should become less heavy through the day as they shift east. Surface winds will become southwesterly 10-15 mph as the front moves through the area, then turn westerly Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The Heaviest rainfall totals will be north and west of Jacksonville where totals of 1.0-1.5 inches will be common with a quarter to a half inch more common south and east of highway 301 by the end of Sunday. Highs will be warm with mid to upper 70s over most areas to near 80 along the St Johns river basin into Jacksonville.

Monday, low clouds will linger the first half of the day as the mid/upper trough deepens over the MS valley and allows low level SW to WSW flow to linger over the region before the trough swings through the deep south Monday afternoon and brings in drier air with surface high pressure building in from the WNW. High thin cirrus clouds will remain over the region as fast jet stream level winds remain along the gulf coast into Carolina low country. Cooler highs nearer to normal in the lower 70s over inland SE GA to the low/mid 70s over NE FL and the coast. Lows Monday morning will begin mild over NE FL in the low to mid 60s and cooler in the 50s over SE GA.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A drier pattern will be in store this period as broad mid/upper level troughing east of the MS river will persist as deep ridging migrates slowly through the week form the upper Midwest into the east coast. Skies will become mostly sunny by Wednesday as a dry cold front arrives early in the day from the north with strong high pressure building in from the NW and settling into the deep south by Thursday morning and then over our area late Thursday into Friday morning. The high will shift to the east by Saturday. Winds will be breezy on Wednesday in the wake of the dry cold front and then lighten and turn variable through the end of the week, then easterly on Saturday.

Highs will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday, then warm to slightly below normal by Friday and then near normal on Saturday.
Lows will be below normal through the week, with a frost possible on Thursday morning away from the coast.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Prefrontal rainfall and warm, moist airmass will lead to widespread low stratus and areas of fog through the overnight hours, especially after midnight when rainfall coverage will begin to diminish. LIFR and VLIFR stratus will be possible at all local terminals tonight with periods of degraded vsbys to IFR/LIFR at the immediate coast as sea fog sloshes inland and inland terminals of NE FL and SE GA.
Improvements will accompany the next band of rain and embedded storms that will slide southeastward through the region after sunrise Sunday. Some improvement in flight conditions is expected with this prefrontal band of convection. Rainfall could be occasionally moderate to heavy and lead to restrictions during the 13-19z period. Anticipate further improvements areawide from 20z onward. Winds will favor a southwest direction for most locations at or below 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A warm front is draped across the coastal waters as its associated cold front moves southeast into the region. Warm, moist southerly flow has caused patchy to locally dense sea fog to develop along the nearshore waters and could continue into Sunday morning with visibility below 1 nautical mile. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters Sunday night turning winds to the west and northwest. Stronger northwest winds are expected by Monday night. A secondary front will move southeast across the area by mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to the seas of 3+ feet which yields breakers of at least 2-3 ft. Fairly similar conditions expected on Sunday.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 66 77 55 / 80 70 70 20 SSI 71 64 76 60 / 50 80 50 20 JAX 76 67 80 62 / 40 80 40 20 SGJ 76 67 81 64 / 20 30 40 20 GNV 79 68 80 64 / 20 40 40 20 OCF 82 68 80 65 / 10 20 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ450-452-454.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Green Cove Springs
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:17 AM EST     4.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM EST     4.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:48 PM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:45 PM EST     4.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Green Cove Springs, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Black Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     5.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EST     4.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     5.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:44 PM EST     4.89 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jacksonville, FL,