Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tyndall AFB, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The air mass is in the process of moistening. Satellite PW imagery shows a slug of 2-2.2 inch values spreading northward up the Nature Coast and into the Eastern FL Big Bend. This will continue northward this evening into the I-75 corridor of south Georgia, and then expand west across the region later tonight and Saturday.

With such a moist air mass, it will not take much lift to squeeze out convection. Of course, we will have the usual diurnal trends of late night and morning convection near the coast, then PM convection inland. However, a little lift from the shortwave spinning across the Mid-South will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms going all the way through the night over inland areas.

SHORT TERM and LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southerly flow from the Gulf is allowing for high PWATS to move in over the forecast region on Saturday into Saturday night. Troughing from an upper level low out west can bring enough lift to allow for afternoon thunderstorms to continue into the night on Saturday.
Sunday, PWATs begin to gradually decline as dry air currently over the eastern Caribbean follows the clockwise flow of the Bermuda high and makes its way to the forecast region.

Moving into next week, rain chances continue to decline as the drier airmass moves in overhead. A 500 mb high off the Atlantic will begin to extend out farther west allowing for ridging to set up over the district. Expect partly cloudy skies and increased maximum temps in the early to middle part of the week. Afternoon convection is possible but coverage may be less widespread as seen in the past few days.

The forecast district will begin to become sandwiched in between the Bermuda high and a strong heatwave high over the the Great Plains.
This setup can bring some instability to the region allowing for an increased chance for widespread rain and convection to develop in the latter half of the week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Showers and storms are ongoing, especially near KABY and KDHN, so included TSRA for those TAF sites for an hour or so into the TAF package with a few vicinity thunderstorms near KTLH this evening and vicinity showers near KVLD. Most TAF sites are expected to remain dry tonight once these showers/storms dissipate. However, another round of late-morning/afternoon showers and storms are expected across the region Saturday. Attempted to time out some of the better opportunities for those storms with PROB30 groups with this TAF package.

MARINE
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Gentle southerly breezes will prevail through next Wednesday, as the strong subtropical high remains anchored south of Bermuda. So showers and thunderstorms will be the main threats to mariners, including strong wind gusts, lightning, waterspouts, and locally reduced visibility.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A seasonably hot, moist and unstable air mass will be in place through the this weekend and next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The main difference is that Wednesday through next Friday will feature less coverage of thunderstorms and temperatures rising a few degrees above normal. For now, the main fire weather concerns through early next week will be thundertorm-related, specifically lightning along with erratic and gusty winds near storms.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Hydrology concerns over the next 7 days will consist of localized nuisance runoff issues and isolated flash flooding.

A typical pattern of summer thunderstorms will persist for the next week. Beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms, intense rainfall rates have potential for localized runoff issues, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. With torrential rain rates, storms that linger over the same area for too long would bring isolated flash flooding. This would be especially true if any north-south lines can develop parallel to the steering flow. Lastly, the air mass will be moistest through Saturday, so that will further enhance rain rates beneath stronger storms.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 74 87 73 90 / 30 80 20 70 Panama City 77 88 77 89 / 40 80 40 60 Dothan 73 88 72 90 / 40 80 30 70 Albany 73 88 72 90 / 40 90 20 60 Valdosta 73 88 73 92 / 30 70 20 60 Cross City 72 90 72 91 / 30 60 20 60 Apalachicola 77 86 77 86 / 40 80 40 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.