Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tyndall AFB, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 12:35 PM CDT (17:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:202004090115;;765213 Fzus52 Ktae 081244 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 844 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-090115- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 844 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020 /744 Am Cdt Wed Apr 8 2020/
Rest of today..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 15 knots becoming northeast 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 844 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis.. Winds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots from the west southwest until a front moves through Thursday night, shifting winds to become offshore Friday through Friday night. Winds become southerly over the weekend as a strong cold front approaches. Winds and seas may elevate to advisory levels on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tyndall AFB, FL
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location: 29.99, -85.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 081242 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 842 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

UPDATE.

Minor upward adjustments to temperatures and dew points through early afternoon. The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

PREV DISCUSSION [653 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through today as a shortwave moves through the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, amplifying the northern stream trough. At the surface, we'll remain on the northern or northwestern edge of high pressure, resulting in southwesterly flow veering westerly through the day.

As flow veers, a theta-e rich airmass will advect east into the region this afternoon, coinciding with max diurnal destabilization. Expect to see showers and thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of this gradient in a scattered nature today. With 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear available in the westerly flow regime aloft, expect the potential for some isolated storm organization. The main threat would be damaging straight line wind gusts, and possibly some small hail.

There are some models that would like to bring a loosely organized MCS into our AL and GA counties this evening, but there are mixed signals on this and a high level of uncertainty at this time. Tis the time of year where we should be looking upstream for MCS development however. Just be aware that there could be another round of showers and storms later tonight.

SHORT TERM [Thursday through Friday].

A cold front will push just south of our CWA by Thursday night and stall with the mid to upper level flow across the Gulf coastal region becoming zonal. There will be a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday ahead of the front. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will ride eastward from Texas into our FA Thursday night/Friday bringing extensive cloudiness and chances for mostly light rain. The best chances for rain (30-40%) will be over the Florida zones and adjacent coastal waters. In the wake of the front on Friday, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 80s to around 90 cooling into the lower to mid 70s on Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday].

Friday night through Sunday night - In the wake of the upper disturbance and with the front south of our area, expect cool and dry conditions Friday night with lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper low will be damping out as it translates east- northeastward from southern Arizona to eastern OK by 12z Sunday. This feature will open up and become absorbed in the mean flow as it it rapidly lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes Sunday night. At the surface, the stalled front will lift north as a warm front across our area bringing rain and possibly thunderstorms with Saturday/Saturday night in response to shortwave ridging. This will be followed by the approach and passage of a cold front Sunday/Sunday night where we will see better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Global models are similar with surface and upper level features but the GFS solution is about 6 hours faster in bringing the cold front into our CWA. This system continues to have the potential to bring a chance for severe weather along with widespread heavy rains.

Monday through Wednesday - Lingering showers possible Monday through Wednesday if the EURO solution verifies showing a slower moving cold front possibly stalling over or just east of our easternmost zones.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Thursday]

IFR ceilings are widespread this morning and will gradually lift to MVFR and scatter through mid-morning/early afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected today, especially possible at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Outside of storms, VFR should prevail from the afternoon into at least the first part of the night.

MARINE.

Winds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots from the west southwest until a front moves through Thursday night, shifting winds to become offshore Friday through Friday night. Winds become southerly over the weekend as a strong cold front approaches. Winds and seas may elevate to advisory levels on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are expected across the region today. Although coverage of storms will be less tomorrow, dispersion indices are forecast to be high across portions of AL and GA.

HYDROLOGY.

A few weak systems will bring less than half an inch of rain to the area by Saturday, with no flooding concerns. After that, a strong cold front will move through this weekend with some guidance showing 4-5 inches of rain in varying parts of the region. Depending where this falls and how fast, there could be some flash flooding and river flooding issues this weekend and into the new work week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 86 69 91 59 74 / 20 10 20 30 40 Panama City 79 71 82 60 73 / 20 20 10 30 30 Dothan 84 68 86 57 73 / 40 30 20 20 10 Albany 84 68 88 58 72 / 60 50 20 20 10 Valdosta 85 69 89 59 72 / 40 40 20 30 20 Cross City 83 70 86 61 73 / 10 30 10 20 30 Apalachicola 79 71 81 61 70 / 10 10 10 30 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . LF NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . Barry LONG TERM . Barry AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . Barry FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . LN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 11 mi54 min WSW 11 G 14 71°F
PCBF1 18 mi48 min WSW 6 G 8 74°F 72°F1014.9 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 42 mi54 min WSW 8.9 G 12 81°F 73°F1015 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 45 mi111 min WNW 12 1016 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi1.7 hrsW 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9--SW10SW9SW8SW9SW8SW5S8SW5S8SW9SW10SW11SW11SW14W10W9W7W9W9W11W11
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1 day agoSW8SW12SW10S10S8SW6SW7SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4NE3S4S6S8
2 days agoSW6SW11SW13SW11SW10SW8SW7SW4W5CalmSW4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmSE6CalmE3E3E4E3NE5SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:03 AM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:11 PM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:51 AM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:29 PM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.