Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tyndall AFB, FL
May 12, 2024 7:26 PM CDT (00:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 9:39 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ750 Expires:202405130130;;094001 Fzus52 Ktae 121911 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 311 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-130130- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 311 pm edt Sun may 12 2024 /211 pm cdt Sun may 12 2024/
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east late this evening and overnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southwest 5 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 311 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-130130- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 311 pm edt Sun may 12 2024 /211 pm cdt Sun may 12 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 311 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis -
favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before strong to severe Thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet another round of potentially impactful Thunderstorms.
favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before strong to severe Thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet another round of potentially impactful Thunderstorms.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 122338 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 738 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
We still expect severe weather and heavy rain to be a threat to the forecast area starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. We have gone ahead and issued a flood watch this evening for portions of the area given the event could start as early as late Monday morning in the western areas. It is possible that the watch could be expanded in area in future updates.
NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
A quick transition from quiet to active weather is expected during the near-term period as a maturing storm system translates east from the South-Central Plains. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
appears poised to develop ahead of this feature overnight across the MS Valley, then dive SE towards the Northern Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. The MCS should be moving into a moist/unstable/sheared environment, so severe weather and heavy rainfall appear likely.
The SPC expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) eastward in their Day 2 Outlook to now include all of SE AL and most of the FL Panhandle & SW GA. All modes of severe weather are possible with damaging gusts being the most probable threat. There is an even a hatched area of significant or destructive wind potential (>74 mph)
outlined roughly along/east of a Dothan to DeFuniak Springs line. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place nearly everywhere else outside of most of the Forgotten Coast into the SE FL Big Bend. Our Eastern Timezone counties look to get impacted most during the afternoon hrs as the MCS pushes into Apalachee Bay towards the evening. A relative lull in convection takes place at the end of the period farther west, but does not seem to last long thanks to another MCS plowing across the Northern Gulf Coast. Flash flooding is also a distinct possibility, especially west of Apalachicola River where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is highlighted by the WPC.
High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 80s while overnight lows return to the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms aim to move across the region through the short-term period as the aforementioned storm system slowly rotates east over the OH Valley.
However, there is some uncertainty as to how convection evolves with this round as it will be contingent on how much the airmass is affected in the wake of the preceding MCS (e.g., stabilized rain- cooled air, mesoscale boundary left behind).
Storm tracks are a little nebulous as well with the potential for either storms penetrating inland or staying closer to the coast.
Given the slow-moving/quasi-meandering nature of this activity's Parent Low to our north and a large fetch of moist SW flow along its trailing front, heavy rain potential will be present. A broadbrushed Marginal Risk remains in place areawide by the SPC while a widespread Slight (level 2 of 4) is apparent in the WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Looking at temperatures have highs in the 80s for highs and upper 60s to low 70s for lows.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Weather gradually improves from west to east on Wednesday, followed by a temporary quiet period on Thursday. By Friday, the next storm system takes shape over the Central US and bring a potential renewed threat for severe weather. Unsettled conditions persist through the weekend thanks to an active zonal subtropical jet and attendant lingering frontal boundary draped somewhere along the Gulf Coast states. Otherwise, expect warm and mostly muggy conditions.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across all sites before deteriorating around 09-13z as thunderstorms roll into the area. All sites are expected to endure thunderstorms in the late morning through the evening hours tomorrow with a lull around the 21z timeframe, though this is subject to change as timing is somewhat difficult to iron out. Following the thunderstorms, KDHN and KABY will see IFR CIGs roll into the area with MVFR at KECP.
MARINE
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before strong to severe thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet another round of potentially impactful thunderstorms.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
An active, wet pattern will affect the Tri-State area through mid- week, beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Widespread wetting rains are expected from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather and flash flooding appear likely. Weather conditions improve from west to east on Wednesday, but that afternoon is slated to be met with very high dispersions. A temporary convective lull arrives Thursday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
We are becoming increasingly concerned on the prospects for heavy rainfall this week from multiple rounds of thunderstorms poised to move through the Tri-State area. The latest forecast amounts between Monday and Wednesday night are 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4-8 inches possible. The greatest potential is over the Wiregrass Region towards Albany area down the western FL Panhandle. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by the WPC (Day 2 Outlook) is in place over extreme Southern MS/AL into the extreme western FL Panhandle. An eastward expansion of this risk appears likely in future outlooks. Flash flooding seems like a good bet for some locations. If trends continue, they a future Flood Watch will need to be considered. The longer- term implications are riverine flooding depending on where the heaviest rain falls.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 66 83 70 82 / 10 80 80 90 Panama City 69 83 72 82 / 10 80 70 90 Dothan 65 80 68 81 / 20 70 80 90 Albany 64 78 67 81 / 20 60 80 100 Valdosta 65 84 69 83 / 10 60 80 90 Cross City 65 88 70 85 / 0 80 60 80 Apalachicola 72 80 73 81 / 10 80 60 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.
High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for FLZ108-112.
GA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.
AL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 738 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
We still expect severe weather and heavy rain to be a threat to the forecast area starting Monday and lasting through Tuesday. We have gone ahead and issued a flood watch this evening for portions of the area given the event could start as early as late Monday morning in the western areas. It is possible that the watch could be expanded in area in future updates.
NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
A quick transition from quiet to active weather is expected during the near-term period as a maturing storm system translates east from the South-Central Plains. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
appears poised to develop ahead of this feature overnight across the MS Valley, then dive SE towards the Northern Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. The MCS should be moving into a moist/unstable/sheared environment, so severe weather and heavy rainfall appear likely.
The SPC expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) eastward in their Day 2 Outlook to now include all of SE AL and most of the FL Panhandle & SW GA. All modes of severe weather are possible with damaging gusts being the most probable threat. There is an even a hatched area of significant or destructive wind potential (>74 mph)
outlined roughly along/east of a Dothan to DeFuniak Springs line. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place nearly everywhere else outside of most of the Forgotten Coast into the SE FL Big Bend. Our Eastern Timezone counties look to get impacted most during the afternoon hrs as the MCS pushes into Apalachee Bay towards the evening. A relative lull in convection takes place at the end of the period farther west, but does not seem to last long thanks to another MCS plowing across the Northern Gulf Coast. Flash flooding is also a distinct possibility, especially west of Apalachicola River where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is highlighted by the WPC.
High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 80s while overnight lows return to the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms aim to move across the region through the short-term period as the aforementioned storm system slowly rotates east over the OH Valley.
However, there is some uncertainty as to how convection evolves with this round as it will be contingent on how much the airmass is affected in the wake of the preceding MCS (e.g., stabilized rain- cooled air, mesoscale boundary left behind).
Storm tracks are a little nebulous as well with the potential for either storms penetrating inland or staying closer to the coast.
Given the slow-moving/quasi-meandering nature of this activity's Parent Low to our north and a large fetch of moist SW flow along its trailing front, heavy rain potential will be present. A broadbrushed Marginal Risk remains in place areawide by the SPC while a widespread Slight (level 2 of 4) is apparent in the WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Looking at temperatures have highs in the 80s for highs and upper 60s to low 70s for lows.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Weather gradually improves from west to east on Wednesday, followed by a temporary quiet period on Thursday. By Friday, the next storm system takes shape over the Central US and bring a potential renewed threat for severe weather. Unsettled conditions persist through the weekend thanks to an active zonal subtropical jet and attendant lingering frontal boundary draped somewhere along the Gulf Coast states. Otherwise, expect warm and mostly muggy conditions.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
VFR conditions will prevail across all sites before deteriorating around 09-13z as thunderstorms roll into the area. All sites are expected to endure thunderstorms in the late morning through the evening hours tomorrow with a lull around the 21z timeframe, though this is subject to change as timing is somewhat difficult to iron out. Following the thunderstorms, KDHN and KABY will see IFR CIGs roll into the area with MVFR at KECP.
MARINE
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
Favorable boating conditions last through the overnight hours before strong to severe thunderstorms roll across the waters as soon as tomorrow morning. The main threats will be strong gusts, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Additional rounds of maritime convection are expected Tuesday through Wednesday before experiencing a lull late week. By Friday, we are looking at yet another round of potentially impactful thunderstorms.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
An active, wet pattern will affect the Tri-State area through mid- week, beginning tomorrow morning/afternoon. Widespread wetting rains are expected from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather and flash flooding appear likely. Weather conditions improve from west to east on Wednesday, but that afternoon is slated to be met with very high dispersions. A temporary convective lull arrives Thursday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024
We are becoming increasingly concerned on the prospects for heavy rainfall this week from multiple rounds of thunderstorms poised to move through the Tri-State area. The latest forecast amounts between Monday and Wednesday night are 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4-8 inches possible. The greatest potential is over the Wiregrass Region towards Albany area down the western FL Panhandle. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall by the WPC (Day 2 Outlook) is in place over extreme Southern MS/AL into the extreme western FL Panhandle. An eastward expansion of this risk appears likely in future outlooks. Flash flooding seems like a good bet for some locations. If trends continue, they a future Flood Watch will need to be considered. The longer- term implications are riverine flooding depending on where the heaviest rain falls.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 66 83 70 82 / 10 80 80 90 Panama City 69 83 72 82 / 10 80 70 90 Dothan 65 80 68 81 / 20 70 80 90 Albany 64 78 67 81 / 20 60 80 100 Valdosta 65 84 69 83 / 10 60 80 90 Cross City 65 88 70 85 / 0 80 60 80 Apalachicola 72 80 73 81 / 10 80 60 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.
High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for FLZ108-112.
GA...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>127-142>146-155>158.
AL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 11 mi | 68 min | SSE 6G | 80°F | ||||
| PCBF1 | 18 mi | 68 min | S 7G | 76°F | 79°F | 29.91 | ||
| APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL | 42 mi | 68 min | SE 6G | 76°F | 80°F | 29.93 | ||
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 46 mi | 86 min | ESE 6 | 78°F | 29.98 | 64°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPAM TYNDALL AFB,FL | 9 sm | 31 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 64°F | 65% | 29.91 |
Channel entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 12:56 PM CDT 1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:38 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 12:56 PM CDT 1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| -0.3 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.3 |
Parker
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:38 AM CDT -0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:22 PM CDT 1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:38 AM CDT -0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:37 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 02:22 PM CDT 1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:27 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.5 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0 |
Northwest Florida,
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