Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chalmette, LA

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The cold front developing over west TX this morning will begin to affect our area by Monday and Tuesday as it stalls north of the coast late Mon then pivot causing the front to adjust northward but orient east west. There will be some storms associated with this boundary as it gets near our area and some of these could develop well into our area via outflow boundaries for Monday and Tuesday.
There is no moderate or strong numbers that jump off the page concerning severe storms with this, so we will keep chances of this low for now. But this looks to change as we move through the week.
The orientation of the frontal boundary will open up the transport of disturbances to move out of south TX and north TX eastward into our area Wed and Thu and possibly Fri. A short wave will drop into the zonal flow by Wed helping to ignite a large complex over the Red River Valley. Models try to show this dissipating as it moves east but we don't see anything causing the dissipation at the moment.
Storms will also fire at random across the deep south Thu as well and any outflows that exist around our area is where we could see this occur for us. Synoptically, previous model runs wanted to bring these ingredients for storms northward into the plains states by the end of next week, but now these same models are showing a weak boundary slowly stalling near the coast keeping our rain chances higher. We are waiting to see which trend guidance wants to hang its hat on before biting on any single solution for the extended.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Most terminals are in VFR status now after dealing with MVFR cigs earlier. The slightly stronbger LL flow will likely bring about some loc clouds through the forecast with MVFR cigs possible again around 10z and through 15/16z again. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Wind speeds will likely approach 20kt today and tonight and slowly ease through Sun which has prompted headlines to be introduced todayf. Wind speeds will lower back to around 10kt by Mon but SE fetch will remain well into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 83 67 82 / 0 10 20 80 BTR 69 86 69 85 / 0 10 20 70 ASD 67 83 68 83 / 0 10 20 60 MSY 70 83 71 83 / 0 10 20 60 GPT 68 79 68 80 / 0 0 20 50 PQL 65 81 66 82 / 0 0 10 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-555-570-572-575.