Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chalmette, LA
December 9, 2023 6:17 PM CST (00:17 UTC)
Sunrise 6:42AM Sunset 5:01PM Moonrise 4:22AM Moonset 3:33PM
GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 324 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am cst Sunday through late Sunday night...
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am cst Sunday through late Sunday night...
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 324 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front will sweep through the waters tonight, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 25 to 30 knots over all of the waters. These high winds will also push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last through Monday morning before improving as high pressure briefly settles in. However, another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday through Friday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 to 10 feet in the open gulf waters.
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
a cold front will sweep through the waters tonight, and winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase in speed to 25 to 30 knots over all of the waters. These high winds will also push seas to between 6 and 10 feet over the open gulf waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. These rough conditions will last through Monday morning before improving as high pressure briefly settles in. However, another low pressure system deepening over the central gulf on Tuesday through Friday will increase easterly flow to near 20 knots. Seas will once again turn rough as the combination of wind waves and swell pushes seas to around 7 to 10 feet in the open gulf waters.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 092114 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 314 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
A positively tilted longwave trough axis and an attendant cold front will sweep through the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. In advance of this trough, a broad region of increasing upper level ascent and moderate instability will support the continued development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Later this evening, a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the forecast area in advance of the approaching cold front.
Fortunately, the severe potential associated with this line of convection appears to be on the lower side as the best dynamics remain well displaced to the north of the forecast area. Model sounding analysis indicates that shear will maximize at between 35 and 40 knots within the effective inflow layer, and that directional shear in the lowest 3km will peak around 125 m2/s2.
These values will support some modest updraft tilting and weak mid- level rotation within the deepest convective cells, and a few stronger storms with wind gusts of 40 mph could develop this evening into the overnight hours. However, the prospect for severe storms to develop looks very limited. PoP values near 90 percent reflect the high potential for rainfall tonight.
By tomorrow morning, the front will be well offshore and well east of the area as the parent upper level trough axis moves through. Lingering post-frontal shower activity could impact the Mississippi coast in the early morning hours, but a dry forecast is in place from late tomorrow morning through Sunday night. Skies will also rapidly clear late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon as strong negative vorticity and dry air advection takes hold. A deep pool of much colder air will also advect into the area from the north and west, and this will drive temperatures well below normal tomorrow into tomorrow night. 925mb temperatures will fall to between 30 and 35 degrees, and this will only support daytime highs in the low to mid 50s over most of the area tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night, temperatures will quickly cool as skies clear and the airmass dries. The only inhibiting factor that will prevent a more widespread freeze over parts of the area will be continued strong boundary layer winds of 20 to 25 knots. These winds will keep the boundary layer thermally mixed and prevent temperatures from cooling as much. However, lows will still be quite chilly in the 30s over inland areas and the low 40s south of the lake and along the immediate Louisiana coast. Another light freeze is likely to occur over parts of Coastal Mississippi, the Northshore, and Southwest Mississippi, especially for inland areas north of the I-10/12 corridor. This where the probabilities of seeing freezing temperatures are highest at over 90 percent in the NBM.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
The start of the long term forecast should be relatively quiet as an area of high pressure quickly builds in following the weekend's cold front. This high pressure will gradually move through the area, still holding enough on Tuesday to keep conditions calm. In terms of temperatures highs remain in the 50s for Monday, but start to recover by Tuesday warming into the low to mid 60s. Tuesday morning lows will still be chilly, but a touch warmer than Monday morning and only warming up more through the week.
Wednesday is when the forecast starts to ramp back up again, but the globals are in large disagreement. The Euro exits the weekend front all the way into the Caribbean, which keeps the next system further into the Gulf and doesn't bring as much of an impact to us. The GFS on the other hand does not take the front quite as far and as a result, the next system in the form of a Gulf Low forms close enough to bring impact to our area. This would be especially impactful for our marine areas in the form of winds and waves. Depending on the solution that plays out will greatly change the forecast. We will have to continue to see how the models adjust as we get into early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Two areas of concern in the forecast for tonight. The first area of concern will be the prospect of IFR ceilings and visibilities persisting at GPT through the entire forecast period due to a combination of advection stratus and fog through around 08z and then from convective impacts and post-frontal stratus after 08z.
At the remainder of the terminals, the primary impacts will be related to a band of convection expected to accompany the passage of a cold front. This band of convection will produce a period of IFR visibilities and ceilings as it passes through. The most likely time period for convective impacts at BTR and MCB will be between 02z and 06z. At MSY, HDC, HUM, NEW, and ASD, the most likely time will be between 04z and 08z. At GPT, the most likely time for convective impacts will be between 08z and 12z.
Conditions will improve rapidly at between 12z and 18z at nearly all of the terminals as northerly flow ushers in a much drier airmass. Even GPT will begin to see improvement as early as 18z tomorrow. PG
MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Strong gradient flow behind a potent cold front will produce near gale to gale force winds over the coastal waters starting late tonight and continuing through the day tomorrow. Seas will quickly respond to these strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots and increase to between 6 and 10 feet in the offshore waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. By tomorrow night, a gradual decrease in the wind field is expected as a surface high builds into the area. However, this respite in rough seas will be short- lived as a low pressure system begins to form over the central Gulf on Tuesday. An increasing pressure gradient over the waters will push easterly winds back to between 15 and 25 knots from Wednesday through Friday. Additionally, as the low intensifies over the central and eastern Gulf later this week, a long period swell train will develop and increase seas substantially. Swell of 5 to 7 feet on top of wind waves of up to 6 feet will push seas to as high as 12 feet over the outer waters by Friday.
The other concern will be coastal flooding developing along east facing shores from mid-week onward.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 44 53 29 56 / 90 20 0 0 BTR 48 55 33 58 / 90 10 0 0 ASD 49 56 32 58 / 80 30 0 0 MSY 52 56 41 55 / 90 20 0 0 GPT 50 58 35 56 / 80 40 0 0 PQL 51 61 32 59 / 80 50 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ552-570-572.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 314 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
A positively tilted longwave trough axis and an attendant cold front will sweep through the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning. In advance of this trough, a broad region of increasing upper level ascent and moderate instability will support the continued development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Later this evening, a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the forecast area in advance of the approaching cold front.
Fortunately, the severe potential associated with this line of convection appears to be on the lower side as the best dynamics remain well displaced to the north of the forecast area. Model sounding analysis indicates that shear will maximize at between 35 and 40 knots within the effective inflow layer, and that directional shear in the lowest 3km will peak around 125 m2/s2.
These values will support some modest updraft tilting and weak mid- level rotation within the deepest convective cells, and a few stronger storms with wind gusts of 40 mph could develop this evening into the overnight hours. However, the prospect for severe storms to develop looks very limited. PoP values near 90 percent reflect the high potential for rainfall tonight.
By tomorrow morning, the front will be well offshore and well east of the area as the parent upper level trough axis moves through. Lingering post-frontal shower activity could impact the Mississippi coast in the early morning hours, but a dry forecast is in place from late tomorrow morning through Sunday night. Skies will also rapidly clear late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon as strong negative vorticity and dry air advection takes hold. A deep pool of much colder air will also advect into the area from the north and west, and this will drive temperatures well below normal tomorrow into tomorrow night. 925mb temperatures will fall to between 30 and 35 degrees, and this will only support daytime highs in the low to mid 50s over most of the area tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night, temperatures will quickly cool as skies clear and the airmass dries. The only inhibiting factor that will prevent a more widespread freeze over parts of the area will be continued strong boundary layer winds of 20 to 25 knots. These winds will keep the boundary layer thermally mixed and prevent temperatures from cooling as much. However, lows will still be quite chilly in the 30s over inland areas and the low 40s south of the lake and along the immediate Louisiana coast. Another light freeze is likely to occur over parts of Coastal Mississippi, the Northshore, and Southwest Mississippi, especially for inland areas north of the I-10/12 corridor. This where the probabilities of seeing freezing temperatures are highest at over 90 percent in the NBM.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
The start of the long term forecast should be relatively quiet as an area of high pressure quickly builds in following the weekend's cold front. This high pressure will gradually move through the area, still holding enough on Tuesday to keep conditions calm. In terms of temperatures highs remain in the 50s for Monday, but start to recover by Tuesday warming into the low to mid 60s. Tuesday morning lows will still be chilly, but a touch warmer than Monday morning and only warming up more through the week.
Wednesday is when the forecast starts to ramp back up again, but the globals are in large disagreement. The Euro exits the weekend front all the way into the Caribbean, which keeps the next system further into the Gulf and doesn't bring as much of an impact to us. The GFS on the other hand does not take the front quite as far and as a result, the next system in the form of a Gulf Low forms close enough to bring impact to our area. This would be especially impactful for our marine areas in the form of winds and waves. Depending on the solution that plays out will greatly change the forecast. We will have to continue to see how the models adjust as we get into early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Two areas of concern in the forecast for tonight. The first area of concern will be the prospect of IFR ceilings and visibilities persisting at GPT through the entire forecast period due to a combination of advection stratus and fog through around 08z and then from convective impacts and post-frontal stratus after 08z.
At the remainder of the terminals, the primary impacts will be related to a band of convection expected to accompany the passage of a cold front. This band of convection will produce a period of IFR visibilities and ceilings as it passes through. The most likely time period for convective impacts at BTR and MCB will be between 02z and 06z. At MSY, HDC, HUM, NEW, and ASD, the most likely time will be between 04z and 08z. At GPT, the most likely time for convective impacts will be between 08z and 12z.
Conditions will improve rapidly at between 12z and 18z at nearly all of the terminals as northerly flow ushers in a much drier airmass. Even GPT will begin to see improvement as early as 18z tomorrow. PG
MARINE
Issued at 233 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Strong gradient flow behind a potent cold front will produce near gale to gale force winds over the coastal waters starting late tonight and continuing through the day tomorrow. Seas will quickly respond to these strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots and increase to between 6 and 10 feet in the offshore waters and 3 to 6 feet in the sounds and lakes. By tomorrow night, a gradual decrease in the wind field is expected as a surface high builds into the area. However, this respite in rough seas will be short- lived as a low pressure system begins to form over the central Gulf on Tuesday. An increasing pressure gradient over the waters will push easterly winds back to between 15 and 25 knots from Wednesday through Friday. Additionally, as the low intensifies over the central and eastern Gulf later this week, a long period swell train will develop and increase seas substantially. Swell of 5 to 7 feet on top of wind waves of up to 6 feet will push seas to as high as 12 feet over the outer waters by Friday.
The other concern will be coastal flooding developing along east facing shores from mid-week onward.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 44 53 29 56 / 90 20 0 0 BTR 48 55 33 58 / 90 10 0 0 ASD 49 56 32 58 / 80 30 0 0 MSY 52 56 41 55 / 90 20 0 0 GPT 50 58 35 56 / 80 40 0 0 PQL 51 61 32 59 / 80 50 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ552-570-572.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA | 10 mi | 59 min | S 5.1G | 62°F | ||||
| CARL1 | 12 mi | 59 min | 57°F | |||||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 16 mi | 59 min | SE 8G | 57°F | ||||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 30 mi | 59 min | 65°F | |||||
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 39 mi | 59 min | SSE 6G | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNEW LAKEFRONT,LA | 6 sm | 24 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 66°F | 74% | 30.01 | |
| KNBG NEW ORLEANS NAS JRB/ALVIN CALLENDER FIELD,LA | 13 sm | 22 min | S 05 | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 30.01 | ||
| KMSY LOUIS ARMSTRONG NEW ORLEANS INTL,LA | 18 sm | 24 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 68°F | 88% | 30.00 |
Wind History from NEW
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM CST 0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM CST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:32 PM CST Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM CST 0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM CST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:32 PM CST Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| -0 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM CST -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM CST Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 11:38 PM CST 1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:21 AM CST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM CST -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM CST Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM CST Sunset
Sat -- 11:38 PM CST 1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| 0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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